Market evolution: Raw cotton (CN 52010090) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the trade dynamics of the European Union (EU) for raw cotton (customs code CN 52010090) between 2015 and 2025. The data reveals a period of profound structural change for the EU in this market, characterized by a dramatic contraction in imports alongside a strengthening and reorientation of export activities. Key factors include shifting global supply chains, increased price volatility, and a significant geographical consolidation of trade partners.
The Structural Decline of EU Raw Cotton Imports
The period 2015-2025 witnessed a steep and sustained decline in the EU's importation of raw cotton, fundamentally altering the bloc's trade position.
The Collapse in Import Volumes and Values
EU imports of raw cotton experienced a severe contraction over the decade. Import volume fell from 118,580.5 tonnes in 2015 to just 33,179.7 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 72.0%. The monetary value of these imports mirrored this trend, dropping by 65.7% from €175.4 million to €60.1 million. This consistent reduction suggests a major structural shift away from imported raw cotton within the EU's textile industry.
The Evolving Import Price and Balance
Despite lower volumes, the average price per tonne of imported cotton increased by 22.4%, from €1,479/t in 2015 to €1,811/t in 2025. This price inflation occurred in the context of shrinking import volumes, contributing to the significant improvement in the EU's overall trade balance for this product. The trade surplus grew from €166.2 million to €295.2 million.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import Value (€ million) | 175.4 | 60.1 | -65.7 |
| Import Quantity (tonnes) | 118,580.5 | 33,179.7 | -72.0 |
| Import Price (€/t) | 1,479.1 | 1,810.5 | +22.4 |
| Trade Balance (€ million) | 166.2 | 295.2 | +77.6 |
EU Member States Driving the Import Decline
The import contraction was widespread across the major EU importing states. Germany's imports plummeted by 91.4%, Italy's by 68.9%, and France's by 66.1%. This indicates that the decline was not isolated but reflected a broad-based reduction in the EU's demand for imported raw cotton from non-EU countries.
Geographical Reorientation and Increased Concentration of Trade Flows
While total import volumes shrank, the composition of the EU's trading partners underwent a dramatic shift, leading to increased supply concentration and risk.
The Disappearance of Traditional Suppliers
Several key traditional suppliers saw their exports to the EU collapse. Imports from India fell by 98.0% in value, from Côte d'Ivoire by 92.4%, and from Mali by 91.5%. This collapse, particularly from West African nations, is a major factor in the overall import decline. In contrast, supplies from Brazil proved more resilient, with its value share increasing by 25.1%.
Surge in Exports to South and Southeast Asia
EU exports, while slightly lower in volume, found dramatically expanding markets in Asia. The value of exports to Pakistan surged by 266.0%, to Bangladesh by 171.1%, and to Egypt by 117.2%. This reorientation compensated for losses in other markets and indicates the EU is increasingly supplying cotton to major textile-producing nations.
| Destination | Export Value 2015 (€ million) | Export Value 2025 (€ million) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 8.0 | 29.3 | +266.0 |
| Bangladesh | 7.9 | 21.3 | +171.1 |
| Egypt | 52.7 | 114.4 | +117.2 |
| Türkiye | 159.0 | 140.4 | -11.7 |
| China | 0.6 | 0.8 | +42.1 |
Rising Concentration and Export Specialisation
The reshuffling of trade flows led to a significant increase in the concentration of EU import sources, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). The import HHI more than tripled, from 608 to 1,783, indicating a shift towards a much smaller number of dominant suppliers. This increases supply chain risk for the EU. In exports, Greece and Spain solidified their dominant positions, showing a high revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in this sector.
Concentration and Specialisation Indexes
Price Volatility and Notable Supply Shocks
The EU's raw cotton trade has been subject to significant price fluctuations, with specific partner relationships experiencing acute shocks, particularly around the early 2020s.
High Volatility in Key Partnerships
Price volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), was notably high for several EU trade relationships. On the import side, trade with Burkina Faso (CV=1.21), Benin (CV=1.10), and Chad (CV=0.94) was highly unstable. For exports, flows to China (CV=1.30), Viet Nam (CV=0.89), and Japan (CV=0.87) showed considerable price swings over the period.
Specific Price Shocks in the Early 2020s
The data identifies three specific import price shocks with high abnormality scores. The most extreme was a 101.4% price increase for cotton from Uganda in 2022, which had an abnormality rating of 77.8. Significant price shocks were also recorded for imports from the United States in 2021 (+32.4%) and from Egypt in 2022 (+104.9%). These events coincide with broader global supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery period.
| Event | Partner | Year | Price Shift (%) | Abnormality Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Price Shock | Uganda | 2022 | +101.4 | 77.8 |
| Import Price Shock | United States | 2021 | +32.4 | 19.9 |
| Import Price Shock | Egypt | 2022 | +104.9 | 7.0 |
Conclusion
The EU's market for raw cotton (CN 52010090) has been fundamentally reshaped between 2015 and 2025. The bloc has transitioned from being a significant net importer to a robust net exporter with a strengthened trade balance. This transformation is underpinned by a drastic contraction in import demand, a strategic reorientation of export flows towards Asia, and a consolidation of both import and export partnerships, leading to increased market concentration. While the EU's export profile appears resilient, the extreme decline in import diversity poses potential risks to supply security for the remaining demand, a risk exacerbated by the documented history of significant price shocks with key partners. The period reflects a broader strategic shift within the EU's textile value chain.