Market evolution: Raw cotton (CN 5201) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the EU's external trade in raw cotton (Combined Nomenclature code 5201 — Cotton, neither carded nor combed) over the period 2015–2025. The EU is a structural net exporter of this commodity: in 2025, the trade surplus stood at €221 million, up 81% from €122 million in 2015. Over the decade, however, both the volume and geography of this trade shifted markedly. EU import volumes more than halved, while export volumes held broadly steady but at lower levels than the 2021–2022 peak. Import prices rose far more steeply than export prices, and a concentrated price shock in 2022 — coinciding with the global cotton price spike — left lasting traces on trade patterns. The following sections detail these dynamics in turn.
Scope & Definitions on the Trade Dashboard
1. A Halving of Import Volumes and a Surge in Source Concentration
EU imports of raw cotton fell sharply in volume terms
Between 2015 and 2025, EU import volumes of CN 5201 declined from 148,451 tonnes to 67,389 tonnes, a drop of 54.6%. Import value fell from €221 million to €136 million (–38.6%). The gap between the volume and value declines reflects the simultaneous rise in unit import prices: the average import price increased from €1,488/t to €2,014/t (+35.3%), meaning that the EU is now importing far less cotton but paying significantly more per tonne.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import volume (t) | 148,451 | 67,389 | –54.6% |
| Import value (€) | 220,922,127 | 135,712,711 | –38.6% |
| Import price (€/t) | 1,488 | 2,014 | +35.3% |
The geographic origin of imports became far more concentrated
The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value tripled from 819 in 2015 to 2,510 in 2025 (+206%), moving the import structure from a low-concentration to a moderately concentrated profile. Several once-significant suppliers collapsed:
| Supplier | 2015 (€) | 2025 (€) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 45,183,244 | 60,720,453 | +34.4% |
| United States | 15,758,461 | 21,902,378 | +39.0% |
| Brazil | 13,135,892 | 16,438,695 | +25.1% |
| Pakistan | 7,539,941 | 8,526,039 | +13.1% |
| India | 19,780,007 | 9,303,601 | –53.0% |
| Kazakhstan | 13,424,640 | 1,722,797 | –87.2% |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 12,390,356 | 939,277 | –92.4% |
Türkiye consolidated its lead as the dominant import source
While several smaller suppliers fell away, Türkiye increased its share of EU import value from €45 million to €61 million, moving from roughly 20% of imports to nearly 45%. The United States and Brazil also gained ground modestly. The result is that by 2025, the top three suppliers (Türkiye, United States, Brazil) account for the bulk of a much smaller import bill. India's position eroded by half, and Central Asian (Kazakhstan) and West African (Côte d'Ivoire) suppliers effectively exited the EU market for this product.
Among EU Member States, Germany's import decline was most dramatic
The intra-EU distribution of imports also shifted. Germany, which was the largest EU importer in 2015 at €64 million, saw its imports collapse to €13 million by 2025 (–79.9%). Italy, the other traditional major importer, fell from €64 million to €32 million (–49.4%). France and Poland were the only Member States among the top seven to record increases (+68.5% and +60.4% respectively), though from lower bases.
| EU Member State | 2015 (€) | 2025 (€) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 63,620,709 | 32,172,672 | –49.4% |
| Germany | 64,047,499 | 12,899,530 | –79.9% |
| Portugal | 40,035,194 | 31,605,442 | –21.1% |
| France | 12,876,875 | 21,699,599 | +68.5% |
| Poland | 4,895,898 | 7,852,809 | +60.4% |
| Greece | 5,720,202 | 629,129 | –89.0% |
| Belgium | 11,784,710 | 3,074,006 | –73.9% |
2. Greece as the Indispensable Export Hub — With Destinations Shifting Toward South and Southeast Asia
Greek cotton dominated EU exports throughout the period
Greece accounted for the overwhelming majority of EU raw cotton exports. In 2015, Greek exports stood at €286 million out of an EU total of €343 million (83%); by 2025, they had risen to €313 million out of €357 million (87%). Greece's Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) for CN 5201 was an exceptionally high 26.2 in 2025, with a symmetric RCA (RSCA) of 0.93, confirming an extreme degree of specialisation. Spain was a distant second at €41 million, followed by Italy and Germany at negligible levels.
Export volumes held steady while unit values rose, before retreating from the 2022 peak
EU export volumes moved from 248,110 tonnes in 2015 to 241,869 tonnes in 2025 (–2.5%). The peak year was 2021–2022, when volumes reached 434,997 tonnes. Export prices rose from €1,384/t to €1,476/t (+6.7%), but the maximum annual average price of €2,400/t was recorded in 2022, reflecting the global commodity price surge.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2022 (peak) | 2025 | 2015–25 change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Export volume (t) | 248,110 | 434,997 | 241,869 | –2.5% |
| Export value (€) | 343,261,526 | 772,178,626 | 356,990,279 | +4.0% |
| Export price (€/t) | 1,384 | 2,400 | 1,476 | +6.7% |
Destination markets shifted strongly toward Bangladesh, Pakistan and Egypt
The fastest-growing export partners were in South and Southeast Asia and North Africa:
| Destination | 2015 (€) | 2025 (€) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 8,015,242 | 29,470,297 | +267.7% |
| Bangladesh | 7,852,368 | 21,290,993 | +171.1% |
| Egypt | 52,656,746 | 114,408,084 | +117.3% |
| Viet Nam | 2,295,059 | 4,332,830 | +88.8% |
| China | 577,229 | 852,541 | +47.7% |
| Indonesia | 31,071,583 | 18,355,596 | –40.9% |
| Türkiye | 159,046,504 | 140,533,496 | –11.6% |
Türkiye remained the single largest buyer of EU raw cotton, but its share declined from 46% to 39% of export value. Egypt more than doubled its intake, and Pakistan — nearly tripling — became a major destination. Bangladesh, despite high volatility (coefficient of variation 0.66), showed the most persistent growth trajectory among Asian buyers. This re-orientation partly reflects the global shift in textile manufacturing capacity toward South Asia and the growing demand for longer-staple Greek cotton in these markets.
Export concentration remained high throughout
The HHI for exports by value stayed between 1,347 and 3,503 over the period, ending at 2,727 in 2025. This persistently high concentration is overwhelmingly driven by Greece's dominance. By comparison, import concentration was much lower until it converged upward in recent years, reflecting the asymmetric structure of EU raw cotton trade: exports are dominated by a single Member State, while imports are sourced from a more diversified (though shrinking) set of partners.
3. The 2022 Price Shock — A Watershed Moment for Import Costs
A global cotton price spike hit EU imports in 2022
The data detects three distinct price shock events for EU imports, all centred on 2022. The most severe was an import price shock from Uganda, with an abnormality score of 77.8 and a year-on-year price shift of +101.4%. Although Uganda accounted for only 2.6% of import value, the two largest suppliers were also affected: Türkiye recorded a price abnormality of 25.8 and a +47.1% price shift (at 35.7% of import value), and Kazakhstan showed a +58.8% price shift (at 7.3% of import value).
| Entity | Flow | Abnormality | Price shift | Share of value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda | Imports | 77.8 | +101.4% | 2.6% |
| Türkiye | Imports | 25.8 | +47.1% | 35.7% |
| Kazakhstan | Imports | 5.9 | +58.8% | 7.3% |
The shock amplified existing trends toward concentration
The 2022 price spike disproportionately affected smaller or more volatile suppliers. Several West African and Central Asian sources — already characterised by high coefficients of variation (Côte d'Ivoire 0.62, Kazakhstan 0.56, Burkina Faso 1.21, Chad 0.94) — saw their cost competitiveness eroded. This accelerated the withdrawal of these suppliers from the EU market and contributed to the tripling of import HHI observed over the decade. By contrast, Türkiye (CV of only 0.10 for imports) proved to be the most stable supplier and consolidated its market position.
Export volatility was driven by destination-side variability rather than EU supply instability
On the export side, the highest volatility was observed for smaller, more opportunistic markets: China (CV 1.30), Viet Nam (0.89), Japan (0.87) and Bangladesh (0.66). The two largest destinations — Türkiye (CV 0.40) and Egypt (0.30) — were comparatively stable. This pattern suggests that EU export flows to major textile-producing countries are underpinned by relatively stable procurement relationships, while trade with secondary markets fluctuates more with global price cycles and demand shifts. The 2022 peak year saw EU export value surge to €772 million — more than double the 2015 level — before reverting to €357 million in 2025, underscoring the cyclical nature of this trade.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in raw cotton (CN 5201) underwent three principal transformations. First, EU imports contracted sharply in volume (–55%) and became far more concentrated by source, with Türkiye emerging as the dominant supplier and several smaller origins — particularly Kazakhstan and Côte d'Ivoire — effectively exiting the market. Second, EU exports remained anchored by Greek production (87% of value in 2025), but the destination mix shifted toward fast-growing textile economies in South Asia (Bangladesh, Pakistan) and North Africa (Egypt), partially displacing traditional buyers like Indonesia. Third, the global cotton price shock of 2022 left a lasting imprint: it accelerated the withdrawal of volatile, smaller suppliers from the EU import market and contributed to the tripling of import concentration, while also producing the highest annual export value (€772 million) and import price (€2,659/t) in the entire series. As of 2025, trade volumes and prices have largely normalised, but the structural effects of the 2022 shock — higher concentration, higher average import prices, and a narrower supplier base — appear to be enduring features of the EU raw cotton market.