Market evolution: Carded cotton (CN 5203) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in carded or combed cotton (Combined Nomenclature code 5203) over the period 2015–2025. The EU remains a net importer of this product, with an import-to-export value ratio of roughly 4:1 by 2025. What emerges from the data, however, is a market undergoing profound structural transformation: EU domestic production has collapsed, import volumes have shrunk while import prices have surged, and trade patterns have become both more volatile and more concentrated among fewer partners. The report is structured around three main findings that together paint a picture of a sector in deep reconfiguration.

All trade figures refer to EU trade with non-EU countries, unless otherwise noted.

1. A hollowing-out of domestic production and a shift toward import dependency

EU production of carded cotton has collapsed over the decade

The most striking structural change visible in the data is the near-total erosion of EU production. Output fell from 241,648 tonnes (€540 million) in the first observed year to just 60,000 tonnes (€32 million) by 2025 — a decline of 75.2% in volume and 94.0% in value. This implies not only a dramatic reduction in quantity, but also a collapse in the average value added per unit, suggesting that the EU has retained only its least competitive production lines. The production volumes data tell the story of an industry in structural decline, likely driven by high labour costs, competition from lower-cost producers abroad, and the gradual migration of textile supply chains out of Europe.

Net import reliance has surged from near-zero to over 50%

The net import reliance metric — which captures the share of apparent consumption met by net imports — has risen from just 0.1% in 2015 to 50.9% in 2025. This is a remarkable swing: ten years ago, the EU was essentially self-sufficient in carded cotton. Today, roughly half of what is consumed must be sourced from abroad.

This shift is also reflected in trade intensity (the ratio of trade to production), which has leapt from 2.7% to 64.4%, and export propensity, which has risen from 1.3% to 20.2%. The EU has become simultaneously more import-dependent and more export-oriented in this product — a pattern consistent with specialisation in niche, higher-value-added segments of carded cotton processing while outsourcing basic upstream production.

2. Import volumes have fallen, but rising prices have sustained import values

The EU is importing fewer tonnes of carded cotton, yet spending about the same

Despite growing import dependency, the absolute volume of imports has actually declined by 25.2%, falling from 23,495 tonnes in 2015 to 17,577 tonnes in 2025. Over the same period, import value rose marginally by 1.1%, from €29.7 million to €30.0 million. The explanation lies in import prices, which climbed 35.2% — from €1,264/t to €1,709/t. In other words, the EU is paying more per unit while importing less, a pattern that could reflect a combination of global cotton price inflation, supply chain disruptions (notably the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 energy/commodity price shock), and a shift toward higher-quality or higher-cost sourcing.

The peak year for import value was not the final year: imports reached €46.0 million at their maximum, indicating significant year-to-year volatility.

A sharp reshuffling of supplier countries

The top import partners reveal a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's supply base:

Türkiye has remained the dominant and most stable supplier, accounting for roughly half of EU imports by value throughout the period, with a very low coefficient of variation (0.16). This stability reflects geographic proximity, well-established textile supply chains, and a long-standing trade relationship.

India has emerged as the fastest-growing supplier, expanding from €2.4 million to €8.9 million (+270.5%), and was at its peak at €18.2 million. India's trajectory mirrors the broader trend of supply chain diversification toward South Asia.

Conversely, the United States — once a significant supplier at €4.4 million — has virtually disappeared as a source (−94.5%), falling to just €242,185. This likely reflects the decline of US cotton processing capacity and/or a shift in US exports toward other markets (particularly in Asia). Thailand has experienced a similarly dramatic decline (−91.8%), while the United Kingdom (−71.0%) and Russian Federation (−48.9%) have also lost share.

Export growth has outpaced imports in relative terms

On the export side, the EU has expanded its outward shipments from €5.6 million to €8.0 million (+43.3% in value, +12.3% in volume). The most notable growth has come from Algeria (+450.5%), Brazil (+389.9%), and Türkiye (+109.6%). These shifts likely reflect growing textile industries in these markets and, in Algeria's case, perhaps preferential trade arrangements or re-export dynamics.

3. Increasing concentration and volatile supply dynamics raise strategic concerns

Both import and export markets have become more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) — a standard measure of market concentration — has risen for both imports and exports:

The concentration analysis shows that import concentration by value has increased moderately, but remains driven primarily by Türkiye's dominance. The far more dramatic increase is on the export side, where the HHI has more than tripled — suggesting that EU exports have become significantly more dependent on a handful of destination markets.

High volatility in several key trade relationships

The volatility analysis reveals elevated coefficients of variation for several partners:

• Import side: The United Kingdom (CV = 1.50), Switzerland (CV = 1.74), and Uzbekistan (CV = 1.14) show the highest volatility, suggesting that these supply channels are unreliable or subject to large year-to-year swings. By contrast, Türkiye (CV = 0.16) is exceptionally stable.
• Export side: The United States (CV = 1.72), the United Kingdom (CV = 1.49), and Switzerland (CV = 1.19) are the most volatile export destinations.

Notable shock events have punctuated the decade

The data identifies three significant price shock events:

1. Exports to the United States (2017): An extreme upward price shock with an abnormality score of 157.9 and a price shift of +803.3%. This likely reflects a one-off transaction or a very small-volume export at a dramatically higher price, possibly re-exported processed cotton.

2. Imports from Pakistan (2022): A price shock of +49.3% (abnormality: 41.9), coinciding with the global commodity price surge triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Pakistan's own severe floods, which devastated its cotton crop. Given Pakistan's 11.8% value share in that year, this had a material impact on EU import costs.

3. Exports to Algeria (2018): A negative price shock of −39.1% (abnormality: 30.1), suggesting a sharp discount or a shift in the product mix being exported to this market.

Intra-EU specialisation is concentrated in a few member states

Within the EU, carded cotton production and trade are highly unevenly distributed. The most specialised members in 2025 are:

Poland stands out as the dominant EU producer, accounting for 44.4% of production and showing the highest revealed comparative advantage. Italy follows with 19.9%, consistent with its broader textile manufacturing tradition. Several large member states — Germany, Austria, Sweden — show very low or negative specialisation indices, confirming that carded cotton production is no longer a core activity across much of Western Europe.

On the importing side, Greece has seen the most dramatic increase in imports (+5,423%), while Poland remains the largest single importing member state at €9.3 million. Several traditional textile centres — Spain (−56.5%), France (−89.8%), Belgium (−96.2%) — have sharply reduced their external procurement, consistent with the broader decline in their domestic processing capacity.

Conclusion

The EU market for carded cotton (CN 5203) has undergone a decade of deep structural transformation. Domestic production has collapsed by 75–94%, pushing net import reliance from near-zero to over 50%. At the same time, the EU is importing fewer tonnes but at significantly higher prices, and its supplier base has concentrated around Türkiye while other former partners — the United States, Thailand, the United Kingdom — have lost most of their share.

Export markets have grown in value, but have also become far more concentrated, raising vulnerability to demand-side shocks. The data reveals several episodes of sharp price volatility, particularly linked to geopolitical and climate events in 2022.

For European policymakers, the central challenge is clear: the EU has lost most of its upstream carded cotton production capacity, and its trade relationships in this product are now more concentrated and more exposed to external disruption than they were a decade ago. The overall trade dashboard provides further detail for stakeholders wishing to monitor these evolving dynamics.