Market evolution: Cotton waste (CN 5202) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in Cotton waste, including yarn waste and garnetted stock (CN 5202) over the period 2015–2025. Cotton waste is a secondary raw material recovered from textile manufacturing and post-consumer recycling, used in garnetting, re-spinning, and nonwoven applications. The EU is a structural net importer of this product, with a trade deficit that widened from €64 million in 2015 to €77 million in 2025. The period under review reveals three major dynamics: a pronounced shift toward higher unit values amid declining physical volumes; a dramatic reorientation of both import sources and export destinations; and growing import concentration coupled with greater export diversification. These trends reflect the interplay of global supply disruptions—particularly the 2022 energy and commodity shocks—with longer-term structural changes in the European textile recycling ecosystem.

1. Rising Prices Mask Declining Volumes: The "Value Up, Volume Down" Paradox

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU trade in cotton waste followed a counterintuitive trajectory: aggregate trade values remained relatively stable or even grew, while physical volumes contracted significantly. This pattern, observable for both imports and exports, points to a fundamental repricing of the commodity rather than genuine market expansion.

1.1 Import volumes fell by nearly a fifth while values rose by 14%

EU imports of cotton waste declined from 85,422 tonnes in 2015 to 69,493 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 18.6%. Yet over the same period, import value rose from €82.3 million to €94.1 million (+14.3%). The explanation lies in a sustained increase in unit prices: the average import price climbed from €964 per tonne in 2015 to €1,354 per tonne in 2025, a gain of 40.5%. The peak was reached around 2022, when the average price touched approximately €1,801 per tonne.

1.2 Export volumes contracted even more steeply, by over a third

EU exports tell an even starker story. Export volumes collapsed by 36.6%, from 21,706 tonnes to just 13,756 tonnes—the lowest value recorded in the dataset. Export value declined more modestly (−6.5%, from €18.3 million to €17.1 million), because unit export prices surged by 47.5%, rising from €843 per tonne to €1,244 per tonne. The peak export price of approximately €1,617 per tonne was recorded in 2022.

1.3 The trade deficit widened despite the price repricing

The EU's structural deficit in cotton waste trade grew by 20.3%, from −€64 million in 2015 to −€77 million in 2025. The deficit peaked at approximately −€104 million in 2022, coinciding with the price spike. This widening gap reflects the fact that the EU absorbs far more cotton waste than it generates or re-exports, and the price increases amplified the monetary cost of this dependency. Notably, the import price consistently exceeded the export price—by roughly €120/t in 2015 and €110/t in 2025—suggesting that the EU tends to import higher-quality or better-sourced waste while exporting lower-grade material.

2. A Seismic Shift in Trading Partners: From Pakistan and the UK to Türkiye, India, and the United States

The geographic composition of EU cotton waste trade underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. Traditional partners saw their shares eroded or collapsed, while new or previously marginal suppliers and buyers rose to prominence. These shifts were driven by a combination of supply-side disruptions, changing competitive dynamics in the global textile recycling chain, and post-Brexit reorientation.

2.1 Türkiye and India consolidated their dominance as import suppliers

On the import side, Türkiye grew from €35.8 million to €50.3 million (+40.5%), cementing its position as the EU's single largest supplier with a share of over 50% of extra-EU import value by 2025. India surged from €14.8 million to €28.5 million (+92.8%), more than doubling its share. Together, these two countries accounted for the vast majority of EU cotton waste imports by value.

2.2 Pakistan's collapse reshaped the import landscape

The most dramatic development on the import side was the near-total collapse of Pakistan as a supplier, falling from €19.3 million to €4.8 million (−74.9%). Pakistan had been the EU's second-largest source in 2015, but by 2025 it had dropped to fourth position, well behind Türkiye and India. This decline coincided with Pakistan's well-documented economic and energy crises, which disrupted its textile recycling and reprocessing industries. The volatility data confirms that Pakistani supply was highly unstable, with a coefficient of variation of 0.52—among the highest for any major import partner.

2.3 Export destinations reoriented away from the UK toward the US and emerging markets

On the export side, the United Kingdom—previously the EU's largest export market at €6.4 million—saw its purchases collapse by 65% to just €2.2 million. Brexit and the resulting customs formalities likely played a role in this decline, alongside shifting UK sourcing strategies. Meanwhile, the United States emerged as a major buyer, surging from a negligible €480,204 to €3,296,246—an extraordinary increase of 586.4%. Viet Nam also appeared as a new destination, rising from essentially zero to €672,558, reflecting growing Asian demand for European cotton waste as a feedstock. Switzerland remained a significant but declining market (−24.1%, from €8.5 million to €6.4 million).

2.4 Concentration trends diverged: imports became more concentrated, exports more diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,783 to 3,819 (+37.2%), indicating that the EU's import base became significantly more concentrated. This reflects the growing dominance of Türkiye and India at the expense of Pakistan and smaller suppliers. Conversely, the export HHI fell from 3,407 to 2,155 (−36.8%), signalling that export destinations became more diversified. The decline of the UK's share and the rise of multiple smaller buyers (US, Viet Nam, Russia) contributed to this deconcentration. The volume-based HHI trends mirror these patterns, with import concentration rising by 60.4% and export concentration falling by 28.2%.

3. Product Composition and the 2022 Supply Shock: Two Layers of Market Disruption

Beyond the aggregate trade figures, the breakdown by product sub-category reveals that the dominant segment—general cotton waste (520299)—followed a different trajectory than the smaller sub-categories. Additionally, the year 2022 stands out as a major inflection point, when a convergence of supply shocks produced price spikes across multiple partner relationships.

3.1 General cotton waste (520299) dominates but followed a distinct pattern

The sub-category 520299 (Cotton waste excluding yarn waste, thread waste and garnetted stock) accounts for the overwhelming majority of both import and export trade. In 2025, imports of 520299 totalled 63,680 tonnes valued at €87.2 million, representing over 91% of total import value. Export quantities of 520299 stood at 11,251 tonnes (€14.3 million). The average import price for this sub-category peaked at approximately €1,851/t in 2022 before retreating to €1,369/t in 2025, while the export price peaked at approximately €1,668/t in 2022 and settled to €1,275/t in 2025.

3.2 Garnetted stock (520291) experienced the most extreme price volatility

The sub-category 520291 (Garnetted stock of cotton) underwent the most dramatic price evolution. Import prices for garnetted stock surged from €571/t in 2015 to a peak of €1,738/t in 2023—a threefold increase—before easing to €1,474/t in 2025. Export prices for this sub-category showed even wilder swings, reaching €1,154/t in 2023 before collapsing to €530/t in 2025. Import volumes of garnetted stock declined from 7,120 tonnes to 3,822 tonnes (−46%), while export volumes fell from 2,662 tonnes to 2,012 tonnes. This suggests that garnetted stock—a mechanically recycled product—may have faced particular supply constraints or demand shifts during the period.

3.3 Cotton yarn waste (520210) remained a niche but volatile segment

Cotton yarn waste (520210) represented a small share of total trade, with import volumes fluctuating between approximately 1,360 and 3,530 tonnes per year. Export volumes were highly erratic—ranging from 183 tonnes in 2020 to 4,711 tonnes in 2024—reflecting the episodic nature of this niche market. The export price for yarn waste reached an extraordinary peak of approximately €3,461/t in 2025, driven by small volumes and potentially high-value specialty demand.

3.4 The 2022 price shock was the defining market event of the decade

The year 2022 emerges as the most significant shock event in the dataset. Three major price shocks were detected:

The Pakistan import shock was by far the most abnormal (score of 283.3), consistent with the severe supply disruptions that country experienced in 2022. The Türkiye shock, while less extreme in statistical terms, was more consequential in absolute terms given that Türkiye accounted for nearly half of EU import value. On the export side, the US price shock reflected the sudden surge in demand from American recyclers and nonwovens producers during the post-pandemic commodity boom. Import prices from Pakistan exhibited the highest coefficient of variation (0.52) among major import partners, confirming the structural instability of this supply channel.

3.5 EU member states showed divergent specialisation and trade patterns

Within the EU, Belgium emerged as the most specialised member state in cotton waste trade, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.62 and a Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of 4.21. Germany, while less specialised (RCA 1.49), dominated in absolute terms—its imports grew by 280% from €8.4 million to €31.9 million, making it by far the largest EU importer by 2025. Germany also became the largest exporter, with exports rising from €6.7 million to €10.7 million (+60.1%). In contrast, France's exports collapsed by 93.8% (from €6.3 million to €392,000), and Portugal's by 95.5%, suggesting a significant contraction of the cotton waste reprocessing sector in southern Europe.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in cotton waste (CN 5202) between 2015 and 2025 has been shaped by three interconnected dynamics: a sustained price repricing that elevated unit values by 40–48% while physical volumes declined by 19–37%; a dramatic geographic reorientation of both supply and demand chains; and a structural supply shock in 2022 that crystallised and accelerated pre-existing trends. The EU's import dependency has deepened, with the deficit widening to €77 million, while its supply base has become more concentrated around Türkiye and India. On the export side, the market has become more diversified but smaller in volume, with Germany consolidating its role as the EU's primary trading hub. The convergence of rising global demand for recycled textile fibres, supply disruptions in key producing countries, and post-pandemic commodity dynamics has fundamentally altered the economics of this market. Looking forward, the EU's circular textile strategy and evolving Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) frameworks may generate new domestic supply, but the data for 2025 suggests that the structural import dependency—and the associated price and supply risks—remains firmly entrenched.