Market evolution: Polyurethane foam (CN 392113) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in cellular polyurethane foam products (combined nomenclature code 392113) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers plates, sheets, film, foil and strip made of both flexible and rigid cellular polyurethanes, in unworked or minimally processed form. The EU has been a consistent net exporter of these goods throughout the period, with a structural trade surplus that widened substantially. Total EU trade flows reveal a market shaped by robust export growth, a notable product-mix evolution toward rigid foam, and significant geographic reorientation in the wake of geopolitical events.

1. A robust and widening surplus driven by strong export growth

The EU's polyurethane foam sector consolidated its position as a major global supplier over the decade. Exports consistently outpaced imports in both value and volume, generating a trade surplus that expanded meaningfully despite faster import growth in percentage terms.

Export growth outstripped volume gains, signalling price resilience

EU exports rose from €409 million in 2015 to €632 million in 2025, a cumulative increase of 54.5%. Over the same period, export volumes grew from 108,561 tonnes to 145,020 tonnes (+33.6%). The fact that value growth substantially exceeded volume growth indicates a firming of unit export prices: the average export price moved from €3,768/t in 2015 to €4,360/t in 2025 (+15.7%), peaking at €4,607/t around 2022–2023. This price behaviour reflects both input-cost inflation (MDI, polyol and energy costs) and a shift in the export product mix toward higher-value rigid foam segments.

Import growth was faster but from a smaller base

Imports nearly doubled in value (from €142 million to €251 million, +77.1%) and volumes rose even more sharply (+67.0%). Import unit prices started higher than export prices (€5,801/t vs. €3,768/t in 2015) and ended at €6,153/t, reflecting the fact that the EU tends to import more specialised or higher-grade foam products. The import price premium over exports narrowed from 54% to 41% over the period, suggesting some convergence in the product mix traded.

The EU remained structurally self-sufficient in polyurethane foam

The net import reliance remained negative throughout (i.e. the EU is a net exporter), deepening from −3.1% in 2015 to −10.2% in 2025. The most negative value was −11.8%, recorded in 2022, coinciding with the post-pandemic demand boom. Simultaneously, export propensity (exports as a share of production) more than doubled, from 6.7% to 14.3%, indicating that EU producers increasingly oriented output toward external markets.

2. A structural shift from flexible to rigid polyurethane foam

The combined CN code 392113 bundles two distinct sub-products: flexible cellular polyurethane (39211310) and rigid cellular polyurethane (39211390). The decade saw a pronounced reallocation of trade flows between these two segments, with rigid foam gaining ground on the export side and increasingly dominating the import bill.

Rigid foam exports overtook flexible foam and sustained growth more consistently

In 2015, flexible foam exports (€184 million) and rigid foam exports (€225 million) were relatively close. By 2025, the gap had widened decisively: flexible exports stood at €285 million while rigid exports reached €347 million. Critically, flexible foam exports peaked in 2021–2023 (around €350 million) and then declined, whereas rigid foam exports peaked at €396 million in 2023 and remained above €347 million in 2025. Rigid foam thus proved more resilient in the face of the 2024–2025 cyclical slowdown.

The import side shows rigid foam growing even more dramatically

On the import side, rigid cellular polyurethane imports surged from €59 million (2015) to €141 million (2025), more than doubling (+138%). Flexible foam imports grew from €83 million to €111 million (+34%), but actually peaked at €173 million in 2021 before retreating. By 2025, rigid foam accounted for 56% of all PU foam imports by value, up from 42% in 2015. This suggests growing EU demand for rigid foam insulation panels—likely linked to building-energy-renovation mandates and the construction sector's push toward higher thermal-performance materials.

Unit prices diverged between segments

Flexible foam export prices fluctuated between €3,254/t and €4,624/t, ending at €4,132/t. Rigid foam export prices were generally higher and more stable, moving from €4,036/t to €4,566/t. On the import side, rigid foam commanded a significant premium: €7,088/t in 2025 versus €5,268/t for flexible, confirming the higher-value character of imported rigid products.

3. Geopolitical upheaval reshaped trade partners and heightened volatility

The geographic structure of EU polyurethane foam trade underwent significant changes between 2015 and 2025, driven by Brexit, sanctions against Russia, and the broader reorientation of global supply chains.

The United Kingdom remained the dominant partner but with a post-Brexit adjustment

The UK was the EU's single largest trade partner for PU foam on both the export and import sides. Exports to the UK grew from €90 million to €122 million (+35.5%), while imports from the UK rose from €49 million to €67 million (+37.0%). However, the UK's share of EU export value declined over the period as faster-growing destinations gained share. A notable price shock occurred in UK-sourced imports in 2019, with a −29.3% price drop (abnormality score 10.4), possibly reflecting post-Brexit stockpiling effects or currency movements.

Russian trade collapsed to near zero following sanctions

EU imports from Russia fell from €6.3 million in 2015 to essentially zero by 2025, following the sanctions regime imposed after 2022. The import series showed extreme volatility (coefficient of variation of 1.05), reflecting the abrupt severance of trade. Russia was replaced by other suppliers, with Türkiye (+207%, from €4.0 million to €12.1 million) and China (+118%, from €15.7 million to €34.3 million) absorbing part of the gap.

China import prices exhibited extreme instability

EU imports from China displayed the most dramatic single shock event in the dataset: a price spike in 2017 with an abnormality score of 256.4 and a +55% price shift, accounting for 16% of import value at that time. This likely reflected a surge in global MDI feedstock costs. More broadly, the China import relationship is characterised by high volume volatility (CV of 0.28) and a roughly doubling of import value over the decade, signalling China's growing role as a supplier of lower-cost PU foam to the EU market.

EU production expanded substantially, reinforcing the export base

EU domestic production of cellular polyurethane foam grew by 62.7% in volume (from 778 kt to 1,265 kt) and 85.3% in value (from €2.59 billion to €4.80 billion). Germany remained the dominant EU exporter by a wide margin (€209 million in 2025, one-third of EU exports), followed by Austria (€70 million), Ireland (€53 million), and Italy (€48 million). Austria (+122%) and Ireland (+92%) posted the strongest growth among major exporters.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter of cellular polyurethane foam, with the trade surplus widening from €267 million to €381 million. Export growth was underpinned by a near-63% increase in domestic production and a rising export propensity that reached 14.3% by 2025. The market underwent a notable structural shift toward rigid polyurethane foam—particularly on the import side, where rigid products more than doubled in value, reflecting Europe's accelerating demand for building insulation materials. Geopolitically, the collapse of trade with Russia and the post-Brexit reordering of UK–EU flows were the most consequential developments, creating space for suppliers such as China and Türkiye to expand their presence. While the EU's overall supply-risk profile remains favourable (negative net import reliance and diversified partner base), the rapid growth of Chinese imports and the price volatility observed in that corridor warrant continued monitoring.