Market evolution: Cellular plastic sheets (CN 392119) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in CN 392119 — plates, sheets, film, foil and strip of cellular plastic (excluding those of styrene, vinyl chloride, polyurethanes and regenerated cellulose) — over the 2015–2025 period. Over the decade, the EU has consistently maintained a trade surplus in this product category, but what is most striking is the transformation in the underlying structure of that surplus. While export volumes grew only modestly, export values surged by nearly 50%, driven by substantial unit-price appreciation. On the import side, volumes collapsed by over 40% even as import values rose by more than a third, pointing to a dramatic repricing of inward shipments. Meanwhile, the geographic orientation of trade shifted significantly — towards the United States on the export side and towards Asian suppliers on the import side — while the EU's own production base expanded meaningfully. The result is a market in which the EU has become more self-sufficient, more export-oriented, and more exposed to price dynamics than to volume risk.

The analysis is structured around three main themes: (1) the divergence between value and volume trajectories, (2) the geographic reorientation of trade flows, and (3) the EU's strengthening autonomy alongside emerging price volatility and geopolitical shocks.

1. Surging Values and Stagnating Volumes: The Price-Led Expansion

The most prominent feature of EU trade in CN 392119 over the 2015–2025 decade is the pronounced divergence between value and quantity trends on both the export and import sides. The EU trade balance in this product widened from €226.8 million in 2015 to €372.0 million in 2025, an increase of 64.1%, but this growth was overwhelmingly driven by price dynamics rather than physical trade volumes. For the full dataset, see the General Overview.

Export values grew at more than four times the rate of export volumes

EU exports of CN 392119 rose from €526.4 million in 2015 to €780.6 million in 2025, a gain of 48.3%. Over the same period, export quantities increased from 56,721 tonnes to 62,635 tonnes, a more modest 10.4% rise. The explanation lies in unit export prices, which climbed from €9,280 per tonne to €12,462 per tonne (+34.3%). This price appreciation reflects a combination of factors likely including input-cost inflation (energy and raw material costs), a shift towards higher-value product grades, and broader inflationary pressures that intensified after 2021.

Import volumes collapsed while prices more than doubled

The import side tells an even more dramatic story. Import quantities fell from 61,235 tonnes in 2015 to just 34,877 tonnes in 2025, a decline of 43.0% — making 2025 the lowest-volume year in the entire period. Yet import values still rose from €299.7 million to €408.7 million (+36.4%), because unit import prices surged from €4,893 per tonne to €11,716 per tonne (+139.4%). In other words, the EU now imports roughly the same value of cellular plastic sheets as before, but in exchange for far fewer physical units. This price escalation likely reflects the rising cost of Asian-origin supply chains, increased logistics costs (particularly post-COVID and after the Red Sea disruptions), and possible quality or specification upgrades.

EU production expanded alongside trade growth

The EU's domestic production base also grew over the period. According to PRODCOM data, production volumes increased from 217,113 tonnes to 276,000 tonnes (+27.1%), while production values rose from €797.9 million to €1,020.0 million (+27.8%). This suggests that the EU's cellular plastics industry maintained — and indeed strengthened — its manufacturing capacity even as trade flows evolved. For production data, see the production volumes dashboard.

2. Geographic Reorientation: Shifting Partners and Internal EU Dynamics

Behind the aggregate figures, the geographic composition of EU trade in CN 392119 underwent significant restructuring between 2015 and 2025. On the export side, the United States consolidated its position as the dominant destination, while several smaller markets grew rapidly. On the import side, Asian suppliers — notably South Korea and Türkiye — gained ground, while traditional European partners like Switzerland and India saw their share decline sharply. Within the EU, Ireland and Germany emerged as the dominant exporters, while Hungary experienced an extraordinary surge in import activity. For the full partner breakdown, see partners.

The United States became the EU's overwhelmingly dominant export market

The most consequential geographic shift in EU exports was the growing dominance of the United States. In 2015, EU exports to the US stood at €177.5 million (33.7% of total extra-EU exports). By 2025, this had risen to €316.5 million (+78.3%), representing over 40% of all extra-EU export value. The US market thus absorbed nearly all the absolute growth in EU export values over the decade. Canada also emerged as a fast-growing destination, with exports rising from €2.9 million to €11.6 million (+299.4%). Meanwhile, exports to the United Kingdom — the second-largest market — grew more slowly, from €89.0 million to €106.4 million (+19.6%), likely affected by post-Brexit trade friction. For the full list, see top export partners.

Import sources shifted from traditional European partners to Asian suppliers

On the import side, the composition changed substantially. Switzerland — once the largest EU import source for this product at €48.0 million in 2015 — saw its shipments collapse to €12.3 million by 2025 (−74.3%). India similarly fell from €13.6 million to €3.0 million (−77.8%). By contrast, South Korean imports surged from €17.3 million to €60.6 million (+250.4%), and Turkish imports grew from €6.2 million to €23.5 million (+278.7%). China's share also expanded significantly, from €28.2 million to €68.0 million (+141.3%). The United States, interestingly, remained a major import source, growing from €64.0 million to €118.0 million (+84.3%). The result is an import base that is now more geographically diverse but increasingly tilted towards Asia and transatlantic suppliers.

Ireland and Germany dominated intra-EU export growth, while Hungary's imports surged

Within the EU, Ireland and Germany stood out as the leading exporters of CN 392119 to non-EU markets. Ireland's extra-EU exports grew from €140.6 million to €252.1 million (+79.3%), while Germany's rose from €150.3 million to €226.3 million (+50.6%). Spain also recorded impressive growth, nearly doubling from €17.6 million to €33.3 million (+88.7%). On the import side, the most striking development was Hungary, which saw its extra-EU imports explode from €2.1 million in 2015 to €74.8 million in 2025 — an increase of 3,524%. Poland's imports also grew dramatically, from €4.5 million to €24.3 million (+445.8%). These figures suggest a significant eastward relocation or expansion of cellular plastics processing capacity within the EU, possibly linked to lower labour costs and proximity to growing Central European manufacturing hubs. For the full EU member-state breakdown, see reporters.

3. Growing Autonomy, Price Volatility, and Geopolitical Shocks

The third key dimension of the EU's CN 392119 market evolution is the interplay between strengthening trade autonomy and growing exposure to price-level shocks. The EU's net export position deepened considerably over the period, its export propensity and trade intensity both surged, and concentration measures indicate a tightening of trade relationships. At the same time, several notable price shocks occurred — particularly in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine conflict — that underscore the vulnerability of this market to geopolitical disruptions, even as the EU's structural position has improved.

The EU's net export surplus deepened and trade intensity rose sharply

The EU's net import reliance — measured as the trade balance relative to production — moved from −5.3% in 2015 to −16.3% in 2025 (negative values indicate a net export position). At its most negative, it reached −55.3% in the mid-period. This confirms that the EU has consistently been a net exporter of cellular plastic sheets, and that the surplus relative to domestic production has widened. In parallel, trade intensity — the sum of imports and exports as a share of production — rose from 29.9% to 80.1%, while export propensity — exports as a share of production — climbed from 19.6% to 69.2%. These figures indicate that the EU's cellular plastics industry has become dramatically more export-oriented: it now sells abroad the equivalent of roughly 70% of its production, up from less than 20% a decade ago.

Trade concentration increased, particularly on the export side

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value rose from 1,605 in 2015 to 1,978 in 2025 (+23.2%), approaching the 2,000 threshold that is sometimes associated with moderate concentration. This reflects the growing dominance of the United States as an export destination. Import concentration also increased, but more moderately, from 1,504 to 1,643 (+9.2%). The fact that exports became more concentrated than imports suggests that the EU's outward trade in this product is increasingly reliant on a smaller number of large-scale markets, which could pose a strategic vulnerability if demand in those markets were to falter.

Price shocks and geopolitical disruption emerged as key risks

The volatility analysis reveals that the most significant disruptions occurred at the intersection of price dynamics and geopolitical events. The largest detected shock was a price shock in EU exports to Ukraine centred on 2022, with an abnormality score of 586.2 and a 58.7% price shift — almost certainly linked to the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the disruption of supply chains in the region. A second notable shock occurred in 2023 on the import side from the United States, with a 34.8% price shift and an abnormality of 14.2, potentially reflecting post-pandemic repricing or logistics cost pass-through. Earlier, a 2019 export price shock to Canada (abnormality 12.6, +111.5% shift) suggests periodic instability in transatlantic pricing. Among individual partners, Russia exhibited the highest import volatility (coefficient of variation of 1.51), followed by the United Arab Emirates (0.86) and India (0.67). On the export side, Russia was again the most volatile (CV 0.71), followed by Brazil (0.59) and Canada (0.46).

Specialisation patterns confirm Ireland and Italy as the EU's core production hubs

An analysis of revealed comparative advantage in 2025 shows that Ireland (RCA 1.60) and Italy (RCA 1.52) are the most specialised EU producers in CN 392119, followed by Latvia (1.48), Poland (1.33), and Spain (1.25). At the other end of the spectrum, Malta, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Lithuania, and Romania show little or no specialisation in this product. The concentration of specialised production in a handful of member states is consistent with the observed concentration in trade flows and suggests that the EU's export strength in this sector is underpinned by a relatively narrow production base.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in CN 392119 has been characterised by three fundamental shifts. First, the market has become overwhelmingly price-driven: export and import values have risen substantially, but physical volumes have stagnated (exports) or collapsed (imports), with unit prices — particularly import prices — rising sharply. Second, the geographic orientation of trade has pivoted towards the United States on the export side and towards Asian suppliers (South Korea, China, Türkiye) on the import side, while intra-EU production capacity has shifted towards Ireland, Germany, and increasingly Central European member states like Hungary and Poland. Third, the EU's structural trade position has strengthened considerably — it is now a deeper net exporter with a far more export-oriented production base — but this has come with greater concentration risk and exposure to price-level shocks, as illustrated by the disruptions linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Going forward, the key question for this market is whether the price-led expansion proves sustainable, or whether it masks underlying fragility in volumes and geographic concentration.