Market evolution: Plastic boxes and crates (CN 39231090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in plastic boxes, cases, crates and similar articles for the conveyance or packaging of goods (Combined Nomenclature code 39231090). The analysis covers the period 2017–2025, for which complete annual data is available. The EU has demonstrated a consistent and strengthening net-exporter position in this product category, with both exports and imports growing significantly over the period—driven by expanding global demand for plastic packaging, evolving supply-chain configurations, and shifts in the EU's competitive landscape.

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1. Sustained Trade Growth and a Strengthening Net-Exporter Position

Both exports and imports expanded at a robust pace

Over the period 2017–2025, the EU's extra-EU trade in CN 39231090 grew substantially in both directions. Exports rose from €922 million to €1,684 million (+82.7 %), while imports increased from €680 million to €1,204 million (+77.2 %). The EU's trade surplus widened from €243 million to €480 million, nearly doubling (+98.0 %), confirming the EU's deepening competitive advantage in this segment.

Volume growth lagged value growth, especially on the import side

Export volumes grew by 53.2 % (from 313,696 t to 480,514 t), while export unit values rose by 19.2 % (from €2,940/t to €3,505/t), indicating that price increases accounted for roughly one-fifth of the export value growth. On the import side, volumes surged by 87.9 % (from 180,279 t to 338,766 t) while unit prices actually declined by 5.7 % (from €3,770/t to €3,555/t). This divergence suggests that the EU sourced increasingly larger physical volumes from lower-cost suppliers abroad—partly reflecting price competition from emerging producers.

Net import reliance confirmed a structural surplus, deepening over time

The net import reliance indicator moved from −1.5 % in 2017 to −6.8 % in 2025. A negative value signals that the EU is a net exporter. The deepening of this negative figure means the EU's surplus has become structurally more pronounced, not just in value terms but relative to the size of the domestic market.

Trade intensity and export propensity nearly doubled

The trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of production) climbed from 17.3 % to 30.7 % (+78.1 %), while export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 10.1 % to 20.8 % (+105.6 %). This indicates that EU producers increasingly oriented their output toward extra-EU markets, a trend likely reinforced by growing demand in neighbouring economies and the post-Brexit reconfiguration of UK–EU supply chains.

2. Geographic Diversification with a Near-Shoring Bias

The United Kingdom remained the dominant partner in both directions

The UK was the EU's largest single export destination and one of its top import sources throughout the period. Exports to the UK grew from €231 million to €380 million (+64.6 %), while imports from the UK rose from €95 million to €166 million (+74.9 %). The UK's share in both flows underscores the continued integration of plastic packaging supply chains across the Channel, even after Brexit.

Morocco, Serbia, and Türkiye emerged as the fastest-growing partners

Several near-shoring destinations saw particularly rapid growth in EU trade:

Morocco's extraordinary +305.3 % export growth is consistent with the deepening of EU–Morocco trade integration under the Association Agreement and the relocation of packaging-intensive industries (agri-food, textiles) to the country. Serbia's rapid growth on both import and export sides reflects its deepening integration with the EU economy and its role as a manufacturing platform in the Western Balkans.

China remained the largest extra-EU import source, but with slowing relative weight

China was the EU's single largest import origin at €179 million in 2017 and €273 million in 2025 (+53.0 %). While still dominant, China's growth rate was the lowest among the top seven import partners, and the import concentration HHI by value fell from 1,333 to 1,255 (−5.8 %), indicating a gradual diversification away from Chinese dependence. The near-shoring trend toward Türkiye, Serbia, and Morocco is the main structural explanation.

Germany dominated intra-EU production and exports, while Spain rose sharply

Among EU Member States, Germany was the top exporter at €377 million in 2025, followed by Spain at €226 million and France at €216 million. Spain's growth of +171.5 % (from €83 million) was the most striking, likely reflecting its strong agri-food export sector—which drives demand for plastic crates and boxes—as well as its geographic proximity to Morocco. Poland (+91.0 %) and the Netherlands (+82.9 %) also recorded strong growth, consistent with the broader eastward shift of EU manufacturing capacity.

Small and open economies showed the highest specialisation

The specialisation analysis reveals that Malta (RSCA 0.67), Luxembourg (0.51), Estonia (0.41), and Latvia (0.38) displayed the highest revealed comparative advantage in 2025. While their absolute trade volumes are small, their high specialisation indices suggest that plastic packaging production plays a disproportionately important role in their export baskets. At the other end, Ireland (RSCA −0.88) and Cyprus (−0.52) were the least specialised, consistent with their economic profiles dominated by services and other sectors.

3. Production Growth, Price Dynamics, and Volatility Patterns

EU domestic production outpaced trade in value terms

According to PRODCOM data, EU production of plastic boxes and crates grew from 1.72 billion kg (quantity) to 2.48 billion kg (+44.0 %) and from €4.96 billion to €8.80 billion (+77.3 %). The faster growth in value than in quantity (+77.3 % vs. +44.0 %) points to significant domestic price inflation—likely linked to rising raw-material costs (virgin and recycled plastics) and energy prices, especially during the 2021–2022 commodity price surge.

Export prices diverged from import prices

Export unit values rose by 19.2 % (to €3,505/t), while import unit values fell by 5.7 % (to €3,555/t). By the end of the period, the two price levels had converged almost exactly. This convergence suggests that the historical price premium for EU-origin goods was eroding, possibly because lower-cost imports from Türkiye and Serbia gained market share, and because Chinese export prices (which had been rising for years due to environmental regulation and energy costs) stabilised.

Trade volatility was moderate, with a few exceptions

The coefficient of variation of bilateral trade flows was generally in the 0.15–0.35 range for major partners, indicating moderate year-to-year fluctuation. However, two partners stood out with notably high volatility:

• Republic of Korea (import CV = 0.62) and Morocco (import CV = 0.63) showed the most erratic import patterns, likely reflecting small base volumes and episodic large shipments.
• On the export side, Switzerland was the most stable partner (CV = 0.05), reflecting the deep integration of Swiss–EU packaging supply chains.

A price shock to Korean exports was detected in 2019

The data flagged a notable price shock event: EU export prices to the Republic of Korea jumped abnormally in 2019 (abnormality score: 52.5, shift: +43.1 %). Although Korea represented only 2.6 % of export value, this shock likely reflects a shift in the product mix shipped to Korea (toward higher-value specialty packaging) rather than a market-wide pricing event.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in plastic boxes and crates (CN 39231090) has expanded vigorously between 2017 and 2025, with exports growing faster than imports and the EU consolidating its position as a structural net exporter. The geographic pattern of trade has diversified, with Morocco, Serbia, and Türkiye emerging as key growth partners—consistent with a broader near-shoring dynamic. Domestic production grew strongly in value, albeit partly driven by price inflation rather than volume alone. Import price convergence with export prices suggests increasing competitive pressure from lower-cost suppliers, but the widening trade surplus indicates that EU producers have maintained their edge through quality, proximity, and established customer relationships. Going forward, the continued evolution of raw-material costs, EU circular-economy regulation, and the geopolitical reconfiguration of supply chains will be the main factors shaping this market.