Market evolution: Passenger vessels (CN 890110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in passenger vessels — covering cruise ships, excursion boats, and ferry-boats of all kinds (customs code 890110) — over the period 2015–2025. The European Union is a globally dominant shipbuilder in this segment, and the data reveals a decade of structural transformation: export values have more than doubled, the trade surplus has tripled, and the composition of trade — by vessel type, member state, and partner country — has shifted markedly. The report is organised around three main findings: the EU's strengthening net-export position driven by high-value seagoing vessels, the geographic and industrial restructuring within the Union, and the evolving partnership landscape alongside rising price volatility.

1. The EU Consolidates Its Net-Export Dominance Through High-Value Seagoing Vessels

The trade surplus more than tripled over the decade

The EU's trade balance in passenger vessels with non-EU countries grew from €2.19 billion in 2015 to €6.90 billion in 2025, an increase of +215.8%. The surplus peaked at €10.96 billion in 2022, a year of exceptional export performance. Over the same period, exports rose from €2.76 billion to €7.33 billion (+165.9%), while imports fell from €570 million to €426 million (−25.4%).

(Values derived from the General Overview trade data.)

The seagoing cruise-ship segment is the engine of export growth

The product code 890110 bundles two distinct sub-categories: seagoing vessels (CN 89011010) — cruise ships and seagoing ferries — and non-seagoing vessels (CN 89011090) — inland and coastal craft. Their trajectories over the period diverge sharply:

(Figures from the Product Segment Breakdown exports data.)

Seagoing cruise ships account for virtually all EU export value. This segment's value rose from €2.61 billion (2015) to €10.35 billion (2025), peaking at €11.31 billion in 2022. Non-seagoing exports, conversely, collapsed from €143 million to just €5 million.

Rising per-ship values reflect a market moving toward ever-larger, more sophisticated vessels

The number of seagoing vessels exported remained broadly stable (49 items in 2015, 41 in 2025), yet the average declared value per ship surged from €53.1 million to €252.3 million — a nearly fivefold increase. This pattern strongly suggests that EU shipyards are increasingly specialising in ultra-large, high-specification cruise ships, a segment where European yards (Fincantieri in Italy, Chantiers de l'Atlantique in France, Meyer Werft in Germany, and others) hold near-global dominance.

(Derived from supplementary unit and value data in the Product Segment Breakdown.)

The year-to-year volatility in item counts is notable (e.g., 160 seagoing items in 2020 vs. 44 in 2024), reflecting the lumpy, project-based nature of cruise-ship deliveries. A single mega-cruise-ship delivery can shift annual totals substantially.

2. Industrial Leadership Shifts Across EU Member States

France and Finland emerged as major exporters from near-zero baselines

Among EU member states, the most striking development is the rise of France and Finland as passenger-vessel exporters. France's exports surged from €1.3 million in 2015 to €2.18 billion in 2025 (+168,371%), while Finland's rose from €0.6 million to €1.83 billion (+284,488%). Both countries host major cruise-ship and ice-class ferry yards.

(From top EU exporters by value.)

Italy remained the single largest exporter (€3.30 billion in 2025), reflecting Fincantieri's continued dominance in mega-cruise construction. Germany held second place (€3.01 billion). Together, Italy, Germany, France, and Finland now account for the overwhelming majority of EU passenger-vessel exports, suggesting a concentration of advanced shipbuilding capacity in a small number of member states.

Conversely, Poland and Romania — which had smaller but meaningful export volumes earlier in the period — saw their shares virtually disappear by 2025.

Italy and Malta shifted from being top importers to negligible roles

On the import side, the composition changed dramatically. Italy was the EU's largest importer of passenger vessels in 2015 at €303 million, but by 2025 this had fallen to just €1.7 million (−99.4%). Malta similarly collapsed from €345 million to €9.4 million (−97.3%). Both countries likely saw imports decline as domestic yards captured more of the demand or as flagging/registration patterns shifted.

(From top EU importers by value.)

Denmark and Germany emerged as the largest EU importers by 2025. Denmark's dramatic rise (from €21 thousand to €149 million) likely reflects the import of vessels destined for Danish-operated cruise or ferry lines, or ships delivered from non-EU yards (notably in Asia). Germany's growth to €130 million may similarly reflect procurement by German shipping companies.

3. Trade Partnerships Reorient While Price Volatility and Specialisation Shift

Switzerland became the EU's top export destination for passenger vessels

The geographic profile of EU exports transformed over the decade. Switzerland went from a marginal destination (€1.3 million in 2015) to the EU's single largest export market at €1.58 billion in 2025 — a 117-fold increase. Given that Switzerland is landlocked and not a major cruise operator, this likely reflects the channel through which internationally owned cruise ships (e.g., those operated by MSC, headquartered in Geneva) are formally imported into Switzerland before entering service.

(From top export partners.)

The United Kingdom also grew as a destination (+311% to €119 million), likely reflecting continued procurement of ferries and river vessels for UK services. Meanwhile, Norway (−92%) and Canada (−98%) saw sharp declines, potentially reflecting the completion of large one-off vessel orders that had inflated earlier years.

Türkiye emerged as a major source of EU imports

On the import side, Türkiye grew from €1.9 million in 2015 to €149 million in 2025 (+7,702%), becoming the EU's largest single import partner by value. This aligns with the expansion of Turkish shipyards (particularly in Tuzla, Istanbul) as competitive builders of ro-pax ferries and smaller cruise vessels. Singapore remained significant but declined from €128 million to €76 million (−41%).

(From top import partners.)

Export concentration decreased, signalling a broader spread of deliveries across partners

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value fell from 6,913 in 2015 to 4,659 in 2025 (−32.6%). While this still indicates a moderately concentrated market (the threshold for a "highly concentrated" market is typically 2,500), the declining trend suggests that EU shipyards are delivering to a somewhat wider range of international buyers than at the start of the period. Import concentration also fell, from an HHI of 2,900 to 2,452 (−15.4%).

(From concentration data.)

Italy, Cyprus, and Romania display the strongest revealed comparative advantage

In 2025, Cyprus (RSCA: 0.81), Italy (RSCA: 0.74), and Romania (RSCA: 0.74) were the most specialised EU member states in passenger-vessel exports, according to the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage index. Italy's position is unsurprising given its cruise-ship building tradition; Cyprus's specialisation likely reflects its large ship-management and ship-owning sector rather than domestic construction. At the other end, Ireland (RSCA: −1.00), Sweden (RSCA: −0.97), and Croatia (RSCA: −0.93) showed the least comparative advantage.

(From specialisation data.)

Significant price shocks underscore the sector's lumpy, project-driven nature

The volatility analysis identified several extreme price shocks in EU export flows:

• United Kingdom (2018): A price abnormality score of 61.5 and a +401.9% unit-price shift, reflecting a specific high-value delivery (likely a large ferry or cruise vessel).
• Norway (2020): A +1,236.7% unit-price shift with a 34.0 abnormality score, consistent with a one-off mega-ship delivery.
• United Arab Emirates (2020): A +555.7% unit-price shift.

These shocks are characteristic of an industry where individual vessel deliveries can represent hundreds of millions of euros, making aggregate trade figures highly sensitive to the timing of project completions. The coefficient of variation (CV) for export values to key partners confirms this: flows to Türkiye (CV: 2.56), Canada (CV: 2.04), and the United Arab Emirates (CV: 2.01) were the most volatile.

(From volatility data.)

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the European Union's passenger-vessel trade has undergone a profound transformation while maintaining — and indeed strengthening — its global leadership position. The trade surplus more than tripled, reaching €6.9 billion in 2025, driven overwhelmingly by the seagoing cruise-ship segment where per-ship values rose nearly fivefold to over €250 million. This reflects the EU's consolidation at the very high end of global cruise-ship construction, a niche where European yards face virtually no competition from Asian builders.

Within the EU, the industrial landscape shifted significantly: France and Finland emerged as major exporters alongside the traditional powerhouses of Italy and Germany, while Poland and Romania receded. On the import side, the decline of Italy and Malta and the rise of Denmark and Germany suggest evolving procurement strategies by EU ferry and cruise operators.

Geographically, the reorientation toward Switzerland as the primary export destination and Türkiye as the leading import source highlights both the role of corporate structures (Swiss-headquartered cruise operators) and the growing competitiveness of Turkish shipyards. Price volatility remains a defining feature of the sector — the project-based, high-unit-value nature of the trade means that single vessel deliveries can dramatically shift annual statistics — but the overall trajectory is one of robust growth and deepening specialisation in a segment where Europe holds a clear and apparently durable competitive edge.