Market evolution: Other sulphates (CN 28332980) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in the product group "Other Sulphates" (Customs code 28332980) from 2015 to 2025. The product, a residual category within inorganic chemicals, excludes sulphates of major metals like sodium, magnesium, and aluminium. The scope and definition of the code covers a diverse range of specialty sulphates. Over the examined decade, the EU's trade profile for this product has undergone significant transformation, characterized by a sharp divergence between volumes and values, a pronounced shift in geographic trade patterns, and evolving internal market structures. The following sections detail these key developments.

1. Import-Led Growth and the Divergence of Export Value from Volume

The period 2015–2025 was marked by substantial growth in the total trade value of EU other sulphates, driven overwhelmingly by imports. However, this headline growth masks contrasting movements in traded quantities and unit prices for both imports and exports, revealing a fundamental shift in market conditions and product mix.

1.1. Import value and quantity experienced significant but divergent expansion

EU imports of other sulphates surged in value by 120.0% between 2015 and 2025, rising from €52.8 million to €116.1 million. This growth was largely fuelled by a massive increase in import volumes, which grew by 251.1% from 136,808 tonnes to 480,304 tonnes. Notably, the average import price trended downwards over the period, falling by 37.3% from €385.7/t to €241.7/t. This combination of soaring volume and declining price suggests a structural increase in the EU's import dependence for these chemicals, potentially driven by competitive sourcing from third-country suppliers. The general trade overview details this trend.

1.2. Export growth was driven entirely by price increases amidst falling volumes

In contrast to the import trajectory, EU exports told a different story. While export value also grew strongly, by 69.2% to €79.3 million in 2025, this was achieved despite a 45.5% decline in export volumes from 641,454 tonnes to 349,711 tonnes. The entire value increase is attributable to a dramatic 210.3% rise in the average export price, from €73.1/t in 2015 to €226.7/t in 2025. This indicates that EU exporters successfully shifted towards higher-value or specialty sulphate products, or that global market prices for these goods rose substantially, allowing them to maintain value in the face of shrinking volumes.

1.3. The trade balance deteriorated significantly as import growth outpaced exports

The divergence between rapidly growing import value and more modest export value growth led to a pronounced deterioration in the EU's trade balance for this product. After a small surplus in 2016 (€5.9 million), the balance shifted into deficit, reaching a peak deficit of €45.5 million. By 2025, the deficit stood at €36.8 million. The net import reliance metric, while negative (indicating the EU is a net exporter by volume), improved in absolute terms, but the value-based deficit highlights a growing monetary dependency on imports.

2. A Pronounced Shift in the Geographic Landscape of Trade

The period witnessed a substantial reconfiguration of the EU's key trading partners for other sulphates. The import side saw the rise of new, high-growth suppliers, while exports became more concentrated towards established economies and certain emerging markets, altering the risk profile of the EU's trade network.

2.1. Imports became dominated by China, with Serbia emerging as a key volatile supplier

China solidified its position as the EU's primary source of other sulphates, with import value rising 181.9% to €58.0 million in 2025, representing nearly half of total imports. A more dramatic story was the rise of Serbia, which went from a negligible €21 in imports in 2015 to €11.1 million in 2025, a growth of over 52 million percent. Conversely, imports from Ukraine collapsed by 99.2% from €4.3 million to just €36,517, likely reflecting geopolitical disruptions. Norway and India remained stable, mid-sized suppliers. The top import partners data underscores this dramatic reorientation.

2.2. Export destinations diversified, with strong growth in the Americas and Turkey

EU exports saw notable growth in several key markets. The United States became a much larger customer, with imports from the EU growing 251.9% to €9.5 million. Similarly, exports to Türkiye and Cuba grew by 235.6% and 288.5%, respectively. While the United Kingdom remained the largest single export destination, its share decreased, with its import value from the EU falling by 25.1%. Switzerland remained a stable, high-value partner. This shift indicates successful market diversification for EU exporters into the Americas and Eurasia. More details are available in the top export partners analysis.

2.3. The concentration of import sources increased, while export destinations became slightly less concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value concentration rose by 31.2% from 2208 to 2897 between 2015 and 2025, indicating that the origin of EU imports became more concentrated in fewer hands (notably China). In contrast, the HHI for export value concentration fell by 17.2%, suggesting a marginal diversification of export markets. This creates an asymmetric risk: the EU's import supply chain for these chemicals became more reliant on a dominant supplier, while its export earnings were spread across a broader set of destinations. The concentration metrics highlight this structural shift.

3. Internal Market Adjustment, Production Resilience, and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Within the EU, trade was shaped by shifts among Member States, resilient domestic production, and episodes of high volatility in certain bilateral relationships, pointing to an ongoing market adjustment and potential fragilities in specific supply links.

3.1. Production grew steadily, underpinning the EU's export capacity despite volume declines

EU production of these sulphates, as reported via the Prodcom survey, demonstrated solid growth, with quantity increasing 24.4% and value increasing 34.1% over the available period. This growth in domestic output is crucial as it provided the foundation for EU exporters to maintain their position in global markets, even as the volume of exported goods fell. The rise in production value (34.1%) outpacing quantity growth (24.4%) mirrors the trend seen in export prices, suggesting a move towards higher-value production within the EU. The production data confirms this resilience.

3.2. Trade patterns reflect distinct national specializations within the EU

In 2025, significant variations in export specialization existed among EU Member States. Countries like Estonia, Czechia, Slovakia, Finland, and Sweden exhibited high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores, indicating a strong specialization in exporting other sulphates relative to their overall export basket. Conversely, nations like Portugal, Latvia, and Ireland showed very low specialization. This specialization map suggests a concentrated industrial base for these chemicals within the EU, centered in certain Northern and Central European countries. The specialisation data provides this snapshot.

3.3. Trade intensity declined while specific bilateral relationships experienced extreme volatility

The EU's trade intensity (total trade as a share of apparent consumption) and export propensity (exports as a share of production) both fell notably, by 20.2% and 29.3% respectively. This indicates that a larger share of EU production was absorbed by the internal market in 2025 compared to 2015. However, alongside this internalization, the market exhibited significant volatility. Analysis identified extreme price shocks in exports to smaller partners like Tunisia and Nicaragua around 2017, and to Cabo Verde in 2019. The volatility measure (coefficient of variation) was also exceptionally high for imports from Türkiye (2.96) and exports to the United Kingdom (0.95), highlighting that while broad aggregates show growth, underlying bilateral flows can be unstable. The volatility and shock analysis details these risks.

Conclusion

The EU market for other sulphates (CN 28332980) between 2015 and 2025 evolved through three defining dynamics. First, it became a net importer in value terms, with a 120% increase in import expenditure fuelled by a massive 251% surge in volumes, primarily sourced from China. Second, the EU's export strategy successfully pivoted towards value over volume; export value grew 69% despite a 46% drop in quantity, powered by a 210% increase in unit prices. This enabled exports to major economies like the US and Switzerland to thrive. Third, the market structure adjusted internally: domestic production grew robustly, but trade intensity fell, suggesting greater intra-EU absorption. The geographic landscape shifted dramatically, with Serbia emerging as a major import source and traditional partnerships like Ukraine collapsing.

The main risk arising from this evolution is an increasing monetary dependency on imports from a more concentrated source base, even as the EU's physical net export position (by volume) improved slightly. The resilience shown in domestic production and the ability of EU exporters to move up the value chain are positive signs. However, the volatility observed in several bilateral trade flows and the structural shift in import partners necessitate close monitoring for future supply chain security and market stability.