Market evolution: Other seats (CN 940180) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in Seats, n.e.s. (CN 940180) over the 2015–2025 period. This residual heading covers a wide range of seating products — including plastic, wicker, and other non-upholstered seats — that are not captured by more specific codes such as aircraft seats, car seats, or wooden/metal upholstered seats. The decade under review was marked by dramatic structural shifts: the EU moved from a modest net exporter to a significant net importer, domestic production collapsed in quantity terms, and reliance on Chinese imports intensified considerably.

1. From surplus to deficit: a decade of rising import dependence

EU imports more than doubled in value while exports stagnated

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's import value surged from €398.8 million to €729.8 million (+83.0%), driven primarily by a near-doubling of imported volumes (from 78,564 tonnes to 147,413 tonnes, +87.6%). In contrast, export value grew only modestly, from €430.4 million to €468.7 million (+8.9%), while export volumes actually declined by 23.9%. The result was a dramatic swing in the trade balance:

The EU thus moved from a position where it exported more than it imported (net reliance of −24.9%) to one where imports significantly exceeded exports (net reliance of +43.2%).

Unit prices diverged: export prices soared while import prices held steady

A striking feature of this period is the divergence in unit values. EU export prices rose by 43.1% (from €8,121/t to €11,619/t), suggesting a shift toward higher-value, more specialised or premium seating products. Meanwhile, import prices remained essentially flat (from €5,075/t to €4,951/t, −2.5%), indicating that the import surge was driven by price-competitive, mass-market products. This price gap widened considerably, with EU exports now commanding a price roughly 2.3 times that of imports.

2. China's dominance and the reshaping of EU trade geography

China became the overwhelmingly dominant supplier

The single most consequential development in this market was the explosion of Chinese imports. Imports from China grew from €306.7 million in 2015 to €620.2 million in 2025 (+102.2%), accounting for approximately 85% of total EU imports by the end of the period. No other supplier came close: the second-largest source, Türkiye, provided only €33.2 million in 2025.

Import concentration as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) increased from 5,989 to 7,293 (+21.8%), reflecting this growing dependency on a single supplier. Emerging alternative sources such as Viet Nam, Türkiye, and Israel grew in percentage terms but remained marginal in absolute size compared to China.

Export markets shifted: the UK declined, while the US and Nordic countries grew

On the export side, the United Kingdom — historically the EU's largest export market for seats — saw a sharp decline from €91.5 million to €53.9 million (−41.0%), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade frictions and supply chain reconfiguration. Meanwhile, exports to the United States grew by 66.9% to €72.9 million, and exports to Norway nearly doubled (+89.7% to €35.8 million). The EU's export portfolio became more diversified geographically, with export HHI declining from 816 to 690 (−15.5%).

Exports to Russia fell by 51.2%, consistent with the impact of EU sanctions following 2022.

3. The hollowing out of EU production and uneven internal specialisation

Domestic seat production collapsed

Perhaps the most dramatic indicator of structural change is the collapse in EU production. Production quantity fell from an estimated 95 million items in 2015 to just 9 million items in 2025 (−90.5%), while production value declined from €850.5 million to €388.8 million (−54.3%). The fact that value fell less sharply than quantity suggests that surviving EU production shifted toward higher-value segments, but the sheer scale of the volume decline points to a profound offshoring dynamic.

A handful of EU countries drove remaining exports

In 2025, Italy remained the EU's dominant exporter, accounting for €163.0 million (+10.1% vs. 2015). Germany (€72.5 M, +20.0%) and Spain (€49.9 M, +74.9%) also held or expanded their positions. Poland and Sweden emerged as fast-growing exporters, with increases of 75.6% and 216.0% respectively.

On the import side, the Netherlands (+143.3%), Italy (+183.0%), and Poland (+225.2%) saw the largest import growth among EU members, reflecting their roles as major distribution hubs or manufacturing locations that simultaneously import components and semi-finished products.

Specialisation remained concentrated in southern and eastern Europe

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 shows that EU seat production and export capacity remained geographically concentrated. The most specialised member states were:

These countries benefit from either established furniture manufacturing traditions (Italy, Portugal) or cost-competitive production bases (Poland, Lithuania, Estonia). In contrast, larger economies such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands were net importers of seats, while Ireland and Cyprus showed negligible specialisation.

Supply disruptions appeared most acutely in export markets

The volatility analysis reveals that export flows exhibited more pronounced price shocks than import flows. Two notable shock events were detected in 2022:

• Brazil: an export price shock of +72.8% (abnormality score of 9.6)
• Ukraine: an export price shock of +21.7% (abnormality score of 8.6)

Both events are consistent with the broader macroeconomic disruptions of 2022 (energy cost spikes, supply chain disruptions, and the onset of conflict in Ukraine). The high coefficient of variation for exports to Australia (0.55) and Brazil (0.47) also underscores the relative fragility of more distant trade relationships.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 period transformed the EU's position in the global market for other seats (CN 940180). The EU shifted from a modest net exporter to a net importer with a deficit exceeding €260 million, driven overwhelmingly by surging imports from China. Domestic production volumes collapsed by roughly 90%, though surviving production increasingly specialised in higher-value segments.

The resulting market structure presents both opportunities and vulnerabilities. On the one hand, EU exports became more diversified geographically and shifted toward premium price points, with member states like Italy, Spain, and Poland strengthening their competitive positions. On the other hand, growing import concentration on China and the dramatic increase in net import reliance to 43.2% raise questions about supply chain resilience. With trade intensity more than doubling and export propensity rising even faster, the EU's seat market is now deeply embedded in global value chains — a reality that brings efficiency gains but also exposure to external shocks and geopolitical risk.