Market evolution: Other paper and paperboard (CN 4823) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in products classified under Combined Nomenclature heading 4823 over the period 2015–2025. The heading is a residual category encompassing a diverse set of paper and paperboard articles — including paper trays, cups, and plates (subheading 482369), moulded or pressed articles of paper pulp (482370), filter paper cut to shape (482320), printed rolls for self-recording apparatus (482340), bamboo paper tableware (482361), and a wide catch-all of other articles n.e.s. (482390).

Over the decade, the EU's trade in CN 4823 underwent a fundamental structural shift. Exports grew from €664.7 million in 2015 to €1,033.7 million in 2025 (+55.5% in value), but imports surged far more dramatically — from €516.3 million to €1,244.8 million (+141.1% in value and +154.2% in volume). This asymmetric growth reversed the EU's trade position: the Union moved from a net export surplus of €148.4 million in 2015 to a net import deficit of €211.1 million by 2025. The following sections unpack the main dynamics behind this transformation.

1. A Structural Reversal: The EU Shifts from Net Exporter to Net Importer

Export growth was solid but import growth was far steeper

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 4823 products rose from €664.7 million to €1,033.7 million in value (+55.5%) and from 257,861 tonnes to 304,037 tonnes in volume (+17.9%). Over the same period, imports climbed from €516.3 million to €1,244.8 million (+141.1%) and from 164,190 tonnes to 417,352 tonnes (+154.2%). Import volumes thus grew roughly eight times faster than export volumes in percentage terms.

The divergence in unit prices is revealing. Export prices rose by 31.9% (from €2,578/t to €3,400/t), suggesting that the EU shifted toward higher-value-added segments or benefited from inflationary pressures. Import prices, by contrast, fell by 5.2% (from €3,145/t to €2,983/t), indicating that import growth was partly driven by the arrival of lower-cost suppliers and products. The combination of surging volumes and declining unit prices points to a classic pattern of competitive displacement.

The EU's net import reliance turned positive for the first time

The net import reliance indicator confirms the structural shift. In 2015, the ratio stood at −4.3%, meaning the EU was a net exporter. By 2025, it had turned positive at +5.3%, marking the transition to net import dependence. The peak was reached in 2022 at +7.7%, coinciding with the global commodity price spike.

At the same time, trade intensity — the ratio of total trade to domestic production — more than doubled from 14.6% to 31.9%. Export propensity also rose, from 9.8% to 16.7%. These figures indicate that, while the EU remains a significant producer and exporter, the market has become considerably more open and globally integrated — with imports capturing an ever-larger share of domestic consumption.

EU production grew strongly, but not fast enough to offset import penetration

Despite the trade deficit, EU production of CN 4823 products expanded considerably: production volume rose from 975,133 tonnes to 5,595,029 tonnes (+473.8%), and production value increased from €2,514.6 million to €5,714.1 million (+127.2%). This expansion, driven in part by the growth of paper tableware and moulded pulp packaging as alternatives to plastics, was nonetheless outpaced by the surge in import volumes — indicating that a significant share of incremental EU demand was met by external suppliers rather than domestic producers.

2. China's Dominance and a Reconfigured Import Landscape

China became the overwhelmingly dominant import supplier

The most striking feature of the import landscape is the meteoric rise of China as the EU's primary supplier. Chinese exports to the EU of CN 4823 products surged from €214.8 million in 2015 to €769.3 million in 2025 — a gain of 258.1%. China's share of total EU imports rose to approximately 62% by value by 2025, making it by far the largest single origin. China also generated the largest price shock observed in the dataset: in 2021, import prices from China jumped by 29.4% with an abnormality score of 34.0, reflecting the global supply-chain disruptions and raw-material cost pressures of that year.

China's dominance has dramatically concentrated the EU's import base. The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,347 to 4,049 (+72.5%), crossing well above the 2,500 threshold that is conventionally considered highly concentrated. By contrast, the export-side HHI remained broadly stable at around 860, reflecting the EU's diversified customer base.

Türkiye, India, and Ukraine emerged as fast-growing secondary suppliers

Beyond China, several other suppliers posted striking growth rates, albeit from much smaller bases. Türkiye grew from €26.4 million to €109.3 million (+313.3%), India from €10.3 million to €49.0 million (+374.0%), and Ukraine from €3.7 million to €42.6 million (+1,037.0%). Ukraine's trajectory is particularly notable given the country's conflict situation since 2022; its export growth to the EU likely reflects both pre-existing trade diversion and EU support policies. The volatility analysis shows, however, that these newer suppliers are also more volatile: India's coefficient of variation (CV) stands at 0.71 and Ukraine's at 0.53, compared with just 0.10 for the United Kingdom — the EU's most stable import source.

The United States lost ground while Russia and Belarus collapsed

Two contrasting declines stand out. Imports from the United States fell from €71.3 million to €55.5 million (−22.2%), a modest erosion reflecting perhaps the higher cost base of US producers relative to Asian competitors. Far more dramatic was the near-total collapse of trade with Russia and Belarus: EU imports from Belarus fell from €1.3 million to essentially zero, and EU exports to Russia — which had stood at €54.8 million in 2015 — dropped to just €13,493 by 2025 (−99.97%). This latter collapse is a direct consequence of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which represented a supply shock with a CV of 0.69 for exports to Russia.

The United Kingdom and Switzerland remained the EU's top export destinations

On the export side, the EU's main customers were geographically close and relatively stable. The United Kingdom absorbed €197.6 million in 2025 (+47.8% vs. 2015), Switzerland €134.1 million (+56.7%), and the United States €114.9 million (+39.0%). Norway and Israel also showed robust growth (+45.5% and +116.9% respectively). The UK and Switzerland stand out for their low volatility (CVs of 0.05 and 0.06), underpinning their role as dependable anchor markets.

3. Paper Tableware and Moulded Pulp: The Segments Driving Import Growth

Paper tableware (482369) and moulded pulp articles (482370) accounted for most of the import surge

A segment-level breakdown of import volumes reveals that the import boom was not uniform across product categories. Two subheadings accounted for the vast majority of the growth:

Paper tableware (482369) alone added over 144,000 tonnes of import volume — more than the entire 2015 import total for all CN 4823 products combined. Moulded paper pulp articles (482370) quadrupled in volume, rising from 21,509 to 84,033 tonnes. These two segments are closely linked to the EU's regulatory push to replace single-use plastics (notably the 2019 Single-Use Plastics Directive), which created strong demand for paper-based alternatives to plastic cutlery, plates, and food containers — demand that was largely met by imports, particularly from China.

Import prices fell for tableware but rose for niche categories

Price dynamics varied markedly across segments. The import unit price for paper tableware (482369) was nearly flat over the decade (€2,860/t in 2015 vs. €2,893/t in 2025), having peaked at €4,031/t in 2022 during the global commodity price surge. By contrast, filter paper (482320) — a more specialised product — saw its import price climb from €6,246/t to €9,157/t (+46.6%), suggesting persistent cost pressures in niche industrial segments. Bamboo tableware (482361) saw the opposite trend: import prices fell sharply from €5,921/t to €3,569/t (−39.7%), consistent with the scaling-up and commoditisation of bamboo-based products.

On the export side, unit prices generally rose: paper tableware (482369) export prices increased from €3,745/t to €5,055/t (+35.0%), and moulded pulp articles (482370) from €1,377/t to €2,333/t (+69.4%). This widening price gap between EU exports and imports — especially in tableware and moulded pulp — is consistent with the EU specialising in higher-quality or customised products while importing standardised, lower-cost goods.

EU specialisation remained concentrated in Nordic and Southern Europe

The EU's revealed comparative advantage in CN 4823 was concentrated in a handful of member states. Finland led with an RSCA of 0.65 (RCA of 4.6), followed by Lithuania (0.47), Croatia (0.40), Greece (0.36), and Italy (0.30). Italy's position is particularly significant given its large absolute production share (15.0% of EU production). At the other end, Malta (−0.97), Ireland (−0.93), and Luxembourg (−0.86) showed the strongest import dependence, consistent with their smaller manufacturing bases.

Among EU member states, the largest importers in 2025 were Germany (€154.1 million), the Netherlands (€176.1 million), France (€157.7 million), and Italy (€122.6 million) — all of which saw import growth exceeding 140% over the decade. On the export side, Germany (€215.8 million) and Italy (€189.8 million) dominated, though Italy's exports grew faster (+32.9% vs. Germany's +6.2%), reinforcing its specialisation advantage.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 4823 products between 2015 and 2025 was defined by three intertwined dynamics: a structural reversal of the trade balance, the emergence of China as the overwhelmingly dominant import supplier, and the rapid growth of paper tableware and moulded pulp as import categories.

The reversal from a €148 million trade surplus to a €211 million deficit was driven by imports growing more than three times faster than exports in value terms and more than eight times faster in volume terms. While EU production expanded significantly — likely stimulated by demand for plastic-alternative packaging — it was insufficient to absorb the growth in domestic consumption, leaving the gap to be filled by imports.

China's rise to account for roughly 62% of EU imports by value has concentrated the import base to a degree that the HHI now signals high concentration (4,049). This concentration, combined with the near-total loss of Russian and Belarusian trade flows due to sanctions, creates both strategic dependencies and vulnerabilities. Secondary suppliers such as Türkiye, India, and Ukraine have grown rapidly but remain significantly more volatile than established partners.

The segment analysis confirms that the Single-Use Plastics Directive and broader sustainability trends have been powerful demand drivers for paper-based tableware and moulded pulp — segments that together accounted for the bulk of import volume growth. The EU appears to be carving out a position as a producer and exporter of higher-value, specialised paper products while importing standardised commodity items at scale. This evolving specialisation pattern, if it persists, will have lasting implications for the EU's trade balance, its supply-chain resilience, and its industrial policy in the circular economy.