Market evolution: Other paper articles (CN 482390) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of EU customs code 482390 over the 2015–2025 period. This residual category encompasses a broad range of paper and paperboard articles—including strips, sheets, and other shapes not elsewhere specified, along with articles of paper pulp, cellulose wadding, and webs of cellulose fibres. The EU remained a net exporter of these products throughout the period, yet the trade balance narrowed significantly as imports grew faster than exports. Several structural shifts stand out: a sharp increase in import concentration driven by rising Chinese supplies, the near-complete collapse of exports to Russia following 2022, and a marked divergence in export unit values between the two main sub-segments.
A Steady Expansion of Trade Volumes Masked by Faster Price-Driven Value Growth
Export value grew nearly four times faster than export volume
EU exports of CN 482390 rose from €297.3 million in 2015 to €441.9 million in 2025, a cumulative increase of 48.7%. Over the same interval, export volume climbed only 4.2%, from 152,789 tonnes to 159,175 tonnes. The bulk of the value expansion therefore reflects rising prices: the average export unit value increased from €1,945/t to €2,776/t (+42.7%), with a peak of €3,069/t recorded in 2023.
Import growth was even more pronounced, driven by both volume and price
Imports surged from €220.6 million to €368.9 million (+67.2% in value), underpinned by a 72.1% rise in import volume—from 63,942 tonnes to 110,024 tonnes. Unlike exports, import prices barely moved overall, edging down from €3,450/t to €3,352/t (–2.8%). This points to a genuine increase in the physical quantity of goods entering the EU rather than inflationary effects.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 297.3 | 441.9 | +48.7% |
| Export volume (kt) | 152.8 | 159.2 | +4.2% |
| Export price (€/t) | 1,945 | 2,776 | +42.7% |
| Import value (€M) | 220.6 | 368.9 | +67.2% |
| Import volume (kt) | 63.9 | 110.0 | +72.1% |
| Import price (€/t) | 3,450 | 3,352 | –2.8% |
The trade balance narrowed despite remaining in surplus
The EU's trade surplus fell from €76.6 million in 2015 to €73.0 million in 2025 (–4.7%), having dipped to a low of €18.3 million in 2020. Net import reliance remained negative throughout (meaning the EU is a net exporter), but moved from –3.0% to –1.2%, confirming a structural convergence between exports and imports. At the same time, trade intensity—the share of trade relative to EU production—almost doubled from 11.4% to 21.1%, and export propensity rose from 7.4% to 12.3%. These trends indicate an increasingly outward-looking EU market for these products.
Import Concentration Rose Sharply as China Became the Dominant Supplier
China's share of EU imports more than doubled
The most striking structural shift on the import side was the meteoric rise of China. EU imports from China grew from €72.5 million in 2015 to €199.0 million in 2025—an increase of 174.5%. By 2025, China accounted for over half (53.9%) of all EU imports by value, up from roughly one-third in 2015. This dominance was reinforced by significant import increases from other Asian and near-European suppliers, including Türkiye (+297.2%), Ukraine (+953.1%), and Belarus (+301.1%).
Import concentration (HHI) nearly doubled
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for imports by value climbed from 1,780 to 3,190 (+79.2%), while the volume-based HHI rose from 1,098 to 2,598 (+136.6%). In both cases the EU moved from a moderately concentrated import base to one approaching high concentration—a threshold often associated with heightened supply vulnerability. The volume-based index rising even faster than the value-based one confirms that the shift is driven by growing physical quantities from a narrowing set of partners, not merely price effects.
| Import partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 72.5 | 199.0 | +174.5% |
| United Kingdom | 28.1 | 31.4 | +11.6% |
| Türkiye | 6.1 | 24.1 | +297.2% |
| India | 9.1 | 20.6 | +125.9% |
| Ukraine | 1.3 | 14.2 | +953.1% |
| United States | 46.9 | 29.0 | –38.1% |
| Belarus | 0.8 | 3.0 | +301.1% |
Export concentration moved in the opposite direction—diversifying
In contrast, the export HHI by value declined from 1,148 to 809 (–29.6%), indicating a more diversified export base. While the United Kingdom (€65.9M) and Switzerland (€59.9M) remained the largest single export destinations, strong growth in shipments to the United States (+55.5%), Türkiye (+195.2%), and Chile (+38.9%) helped spread risk across a wider set of markets.
2022 Emerged as a Watershed Year Marked by Geopolitical Shocks and Price Spikes
Exports to Russia collapsed after the 2022 sanctions regime
EU exports to the Russian Federation fell by 99.9%—from €13.4 million in 2015 to just €11,524 in 2025. The bulk of this decline occurred between 2021 and 2022, coinciding with the EU's sanctions packages imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia had been a meaningful market, peaking at €28.4 million in 2018. The coefficient of variation for this trade flow was 0.71 (exports) and 0.76 (imports), confirming high volatility over the period. The system detected a major price shock in 2022 with an abnormality score of 121.1 and a 259.2% price shift—likely reflecting the distortion caused by collapsing volumes and residual trade at elevated margins.
Price shocks rippled across other trade partners in 2022
The same year saw abnormal price movements for exports to Morocco (36.6% shift, abnormality 12.7) and imports from India (22.7% shift, abnormality 12.6). These broader shocks likely reflect the post-COVID and post-Ukraine supply-chain disruptions that drove up energy and raw-material costs across the paper industry globally in 2021–2022.
The main sub-segment diverged in trade patterns
The product breakdown reveals that sub-code 48239085 ("other n.e.s." paper articles) accounted for the vast majority of both trade flows. Imports under 48239085 grew from 55,268t to 102,258t (+85.1%), while the narrower sub-code 48239040 (writing/printing paper, n.e.s.) saw import volumes plateau. On the export side, 48239040 collapsed from 20,093t to just 6,359t (–68.4%), with its unit value surging from €2,343/t to €5,421/t. This likely reflects a shift from high-volume commodity exports toward lower-volume, higher-value specialty paper products, possibly accelerated by the digitisation trend reducing demand for traditional graphic paper.
EU member-state production expanded substantially
EU domestic production of products in CN 482390 grew from €1.02 billion to €3.50 billion in value (+244.7%). Germany (€109.1M in exports), Italy (€49.4M), and the Netherlands (€45.3M) were the largest EU exporters, while France saw the most dramatic export growth (+1,317%). Finland showed the highest comparative advantage among EU members (RSCA of 0.79, RCA of 8.52), reflecting its deep-rooted pulp and paper industry.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in CN 482390 products expanded significantly in value terms, driven by a combination of modest volume growth and substantial price appreciation. While the EU maintained a structural trade surplus, the gap narrowed as imports—especially from China—grew much faster than exports. The sharp rise in import concentration (HHI from 1,780 to 3,190) represents a notable vulnerability: a single supplier now accounts for over half of all inbound trade by value. On the export side, diversification improved, but the near-total loss of the Russian market following the 2022 sanctions and the broader price shocks of that year underscore the sector's exposure to geopolitical disruptions. The sub-segment analysis points to a compositional shift away from commodity graphic paper and toward higher-value specialty articles, a trend consistent with the broader digitalisation of communications. Looking ahead, EU policymakers and industry players may wish to monitor the growing dependence on Chinese supply and explore opportunities to further diversify import sources while capitalising on the EU's comparative advantage in specialty paper products.