Market evolution: Other herbicides (CN 38089327) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union (EU) in herbicides classified under Combined Nomenclature (CN) code 38089327 over the period 2015-2025. This category covers a residual group of herbicides put up for retail sale or as preparations, excluding major chemical classes like phenoxy-phytohormones, triazines, and urea derivatives. The analysis reveals a significant structural shift in the EU's trade position, characterized by a move from a modest net importer to a strong net exporter. This transformation is driven by changing production patterns, evolving price competitiveness, and a major reorientation of trade partnerships.

The product's scope

The product under analysis is a residual category within the broader herbicide subheading. It specifically includes herbicides that are "put up in forms or packings for retail sale or as preparations or articles" and are not based on the major chemical families listed in the sibling codes (38089311 to 38089323). View the full product definition and its place in the tariff hierarchy.

Analytical framework

The report is structured into three main sections. The first examines the EU's aggregate trade balance and its evolution towards export orientation. The second investigates the underlying production and price trends that fueled this shift. The final section assesses the changing market structure, concentration, and strategic vulnerability of the EU in this sector.

1. The EU's strategic pivot to net exporter

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU has fundamentally transformed its trade position in this herbicide category, moving from a small net importer to a substantial net exporter. This shift is the central theme of the market's evolution.

Declining imports and the collapse of traditional suppliers

EU imports of CN 38089327 experienced a dramatic contraction. Import value fell by 49.8% from €327.6 million in 2015 to €164.4 million in 2025, while import volume decreased by 42.7% from 40,228 tonnes to 23,049 tonnes. This decline was not evenly distributed. The most striking collapse occurred in trade with Switzerland, which saw a 99.8% drop in import value from €119.4 million to a negligible €0.26 million. The United Kingdom and the United States also saw significant declines of 42.2% and 71.6% respectively. Conversely, new suppliers emerged, with imports from Argentina and Serbia growing by over 4,000% and 2,500% respectively, albeit from very low bases. Explore the evolution of imports by partner country.

Resilient exports and the rise of new demand hubs

In contrast to imports, EU exports proved more resilient and grew in value. While export volume saw a modest decline of 3.4% (from 109,904 tonnes to 106,127 tonnes), export value increased by 6.1% from €689.7 million to €732.0 million. This indicates a successful shift towards higher-value exports. The destination markets diversified, with the United Kingdom remaining the top partner but seeing only 4.0% value growth. The most dynamic growth was recorded in exports to Ukraine (+106.3%), Türkiye (+72.8%), and Japan (+36.9%). Meanwhile, exports to the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan fell sharply (-56.8% and -77.8%). View the export performance by partner country.

The emergence of a strong positive trade balance

The combined effect of falling imports and resilient exports was a dramatic improvement in the EU's trade balance. The surplus (exports minus imports) grew by 56.7%, from €362.1 million in 2015 to €567.6 million in 2025. Consequently, the EU's net import reliance shifted from -1.6% (indicating near parity) to -51.6%, signifying that the EU became a major net exporter by the end of the period, exporting over twice as much value as it imported.

2. Production contraction and rising unit values

The transformation in trade flows is underpinned by significant changes in the EU's domestic production structure and a strong upward trend in export prices, suggesting a move up the value chain.

A dramatic decline in production volumes

EU production of CN 38089327, measured in kilograms of active substance, plummeted by 91.3% from 3.0 billion kg in 2015 to 260 million kg in 2025. This staggering decline points to a fundamental industry shift, potentially away from bulk active substance production towards more specialized formulations or the discontinuation of older products in this residual category. Examine the production volume data.

Growth in production value amidst volume decline

Paradoxically, while production volumes collapsed, the value of production increased by 16.4%, from €1.38 billion to €1.61 billion. This indicates a sharp increase in the average value per unit produced. EU manufacturers likely focused on higher-margin, more complex formulations or specialized products within this category, even as they exited bulk commodity production. This aligns with the observed trade shift towards higher-value exports. See the production value trends.

Diverging price trends: Export premiums widen

Price dynamics further support the value-addition narrative. EU export prices (value per tonne) rose by 9.9% from €6,275 to €6,898, while import prices fell by 12.4% from €8,142 to €7,134. This divergence meant that by 2025, the EU was selling its products abroad at only a slight discount compared to the price it paid for imports, a significant convergence from the large price gap that existed in 2015. The export price increase suggests improved competitiveness or a shift to higher-value product mixes in export markets.

3. Market structure, concentration, and vulnerability

The shifts in trade and production have reshaped the competitive landscape and altered the EU's strategic vulnerabilities in this sector.

Increased import concentration and export diversification

The structure of trade became more concentrated on the import side but more diversified on the export side. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose by 12.8%, indicating that remaining imports are sourced from a narrower set of partners. Conversely, the HHI for exports increased by 30.9%, but from a much lower base, meaning the export market, while more concentrated than in 2015, remains less concentrated than the import market. This suggests greater diversification of export demand.

Specialisation and intra-EU production hubs

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) shows that within the EU, production and export of this herbicide category is highly concentrated in a few member states. In 2025, Ireland, Hungary, Slovenia, Belgium, and France were the most specialised producers. In contrast, countries like Slovakia, Finland, and Czechia showed very low specialisation. This indicates the existence of specialized industrial clusters within the single market.

Geopolitical and volatility risks in supply chains

The volatility analysis reveals significant risks in certain trade relationships. Imports from Switzerland and Serbia, and exports to Russia and Kazakhstan, exhibited very high coefficient of variation (CV), indicating erratic year-on-year flows. Furthermore, the system detected significant price shocks in exports to Norway (2022), Kazakhstan (2020), and notably the United Kingdom (2022). The shock in the UK—by far the EU's largest export partner—accounted for 24% of the total export value and involved a 41.8% price shift, highlighting a key vulnerability in the EU's export portfolio.

Strengthened strategic autonomy

Despite these risks, the overall strategic position of the EU strengthened. The combination of increasing export propensity (from 16.5% to 45.7%) and the large, negative net import reliance (-51.6%) indicates that the sector became a significant net earner for the EU economy. While dependent on certain export markets, the EU reduced its dependency on external suppliers for this product category.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU trade in CN 38089327 herbicides underwent a profound structural transformation. The bloc decisively shifted from being a modest net importer to a strong net exporter, with its trade surplus growing by 57% to over half a billion euros. This was not achieved through volume expansion but through a strategic pivot: domestic production of active substance volumes collapsed, yet production value grew, indicating a focus on higher-value formulations. Export prices rose while import prices fell, demonstrating successful competition on value rather than cost.

The trade geography changed dramatically, with the near-total withdrawal of Swiss imports and the growth of new suppliers like Argentina and Serbia, while export demand diversified into markets like Ukraine and Türkiye. Despite this positive outlook, volatility in key partnerships, particularly the price shocks observed with the United Kingdom, present ongoing risks. Ultimately, the EU's herbicide industry in this segment demonstrated a successful move up the value chain, enhancing its strategic autonomy and repositioning the bloc as a dominant net exporter in the global market for this product category.