Market evolution: Other ferro alloys (CN 720299) — 2015–2025
Introduction
CN 720299 is a residual customs category covering ferro-alloys not elsewhere classified under the main ferro-alloy headings — including ferro-phosphorus (72029910), ferro-silico-magnesium (72029930), and a broad catch-all subcategory (72029980). These niche alloys serve as alloying agents, inoculants, and deoxidisers across the steel and foundry industries. Over the period 2015–2025, the EU's trade in this product class has undergone significant structural change: exports have contracted sharply, the trade deficit has widened, import suppliers have shifted, and prices have been subject to pronounced shocks — most notably in 2022. EU domestic production, meanwhile, has grown in value but has not been sufficient to arrest the deterioration of the trade balance.
A Widening Structural Deficit Fueled by Export Contraction
The most striking feature of the EU's trade in CN 720299 over the past decade is the near-halving of exports combined with relatively stable import volumes, producing a progressively deeper trade deficit.
EU export volumes fell by nearly half while import volumes held broadly steady
EU exports of other ferro-alloys dropped from 16,877 tonnes in 2015 to just 8,564 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 49.3%. The fall was concentrated in the main catch-all subcategory (72029980), where export volumes collapsed from 13,853 tonnes to 5,539 tonnes (–60%). Ferro-silico-magnesium (72029930) exports, by contrast, remained relatively stable at around 2,000–2,800 tonnes per year. Import volumes, meanwhile, started at 38,669 tonnes and ended at 37,414 tonnes (–3.2%), oscillating within a range of 37,119 to 53,883 tonnes over the period.
| Metric | 2015 | 2020 | 2022 | 2025 | Change 2015–2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports (t) | 38,669 | 39,577 | 51,331 | 37,414 | –3.2% |
| Exports (t) | 16,877 | 14,447 | 10,809 | 8,564 | –49.3% |
| Trade balance (EUR m) | –31.8 | –24.1 | –73.7 | –46.4 | –45.9% |
| Import price (EUR/t) | 1,598 | 1,124 | 2,129 | 1,759 | +10.1% |
| Export price (EUR/t) | 1,777 | 1,542 | 3,289 | 2,265 | +27.4% |
The trade deficit widened by 46%, peaking at EUR 74 billion in 2022
The EU's trade deficit in this product class grew from EUR –31.8 million in 2015 to EUR –46.4 million in 2025. The deficit was at its narrowest in 2016 (EUR –17.1 million) when import prices were low, and at its widest in 2022 (EUR –73.7 million) when the energy crisis drove import prices to record levels while import volumes also surged above 51,000 tonnes. Although the deficit narrowed somewhat after 2022, it has not returned to pre-crisis levels, suggesting a structural shift toward greater import dependence.
EU export propensity declined sharply, indicating a retreat from global markets
The EU's export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — fell from 16.9% in 2015 to 9.9% in 2025 (–41.5%). Trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) also declined from 45.9% to 33.8%. These trends suggest that while the EU continues to consume other ferro-alloys, it has become significantly less engaged in cross-border trade as an exporter — potentially reflecting loss of competitiveness, shifting production specialisation, or the redirection of output toward the domestic market.
Within the EU, France experienced the most dramatic export decline: from EUR 12.7 million in 2015 to EUR 2.6 million in 2025 (–79.3%). Spain was the notable counter-example, with exports rising from EUR 1.8 million to EUR 5.1 million (+179.8%).
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A Supply-Side Pivot: Brazil Replaces China as the EU's Dominant Source
The decade saw a dramatic reorientation of the EU's import supply base, with Brazil rising from a secondary supplier to the leading source by value, while several traditional partners saw steep declines.
Brazil's import value surged by 190%, overtaking China by 2025
In 2015, China was by far the EU's largest supplier of other ferro-alloys, accounting for EUR 33.0 million of imports — more than half of total import value. Brazil was a distant second at EUR 9.6 million. By 2025, Brazil had surged to EUR 27.9 million (+190.3%), while China's share fell to EUR 26.8 million (–18.8%), making Brazil the EU's top supplier by value.
| Partner | Import value 2015 (EUR m) | Import value 2025 (EUR m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 33.0 | 26.8 | –18.8% |
| Brazil | 9.6 | 27.9 | +190.3% |
| Kazakhstan | 0.04 | 0.98 | +2,542% |
| Argentina | 9.0 | 3.9 | –55.9% |
| India | 2.5 | 0.26 | –89.9% |
| United Kingdom | 2.8 | 0.78 | –71.9% |
| Thailand | 1.2 | 0.60 | –51.0% |
Several historically significant suppliers saw dramatic retreats
India's exports to the EU collapsed from EUR 2.5 million to EUR 256,000 (–89.9%), while Argentina's fell by 55.9% and the United Kingdom's by 71.9% (the latter likely reflecting post-Brexit trade frictions). Thailand's shipments also halved. Kazakhstan, though still a small supplier in absolute terms, grew from negligible levels to nearly EUR 1 million — a percentage increase of over 2,500%.
Import concentration remains elevated despite the supplier shift
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value stood at 3,426 in 2015 and rose slightly to 3,515 in 2025 (+2.6%). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market. In 2025, China and Brazil together accounted for approximately 83% of total import value, meaning that the supplier shift from China to Brazil has not produced meaningful diversification — it has merely replaced one dominant source with two.
Export concentration, while lower (HHI of 983 in 2025), increased by 41% over the period, indicating that EU export markets also became somewhat more concentrated. The top export destinations in 2025 were Türkiye (EUR 1.9M), the United Kingdom (EUR 2.8M), and Brazil (EUR 3.4M).
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The 2022 Price Shock and Its Enduring Volatility Legacy
The year 2022 stands out as a watershed moment for this market. Driven by the global energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict, prices spiked to record levels across all ferro-alloy subcategories, and the resulting volatility has only partially subsided.
Import prices more than doubled in 2022, reaching EUR 3,625/t for the main subcategory
The average import price for the catch-all subcategory (72029980) soared from EUR 1,749/t in 2021 to EUR 3,625/t in 2022 — a 107% increase in a single year. Ferro-silico-magnesium (72029930) saw a similar trajectory, rising from EUR 1,945/t to EUR 3,518/t. Ferro-phosphorus (72029910) prices jumped from EUR 421/t to EUR 617/t (+47%), while volumes surged by 70% to 25,415 tonnes — the highest level in the entire period. On the export side, the average price for the main category reached EUR 3,596/t in 2022, more than double the 2021 level.
| Subcategory | Import price 2021 (EUR/t) | Import price 2022 (EUR/t) | Import price 2025 (EUR/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72029980 — Other ferro-alloys n.e.s. | 1,749 | 3,625 | 2,122 |
| 72029930 — Ferro-silico-magnesium | 1,945 | 3,518 | 1,613 |
| 72029910 — Ferro-phosphorus | 421 | 617 | 534 |
Brazil and Canada experienced the most severe supply-side price shocks
The shock detection analysis identified three major price shock events centered on 2022:
- Brazil (imports): An abnormality score of 76.9 and a price shift of +195.1%, with Brazil accounting for 34.5% of total import value — by far the largest single shock.
- Canada (exports): An abnormality of 29.1 and a price shift of +148.6%, representing 9.0% of export value.
- South Africa (exports): An abnormality of 8.3 and a price shift of +65.1%, representing 3.2% of export value.
These shocks were symptomatic of the broader energy-cost crisis: ferro-alloy production is highly energy-intensive, and suppliers in countries with rising energy costs passed these increases through to EU buyers.
Price volatility remains elevated, with Russia and Kazakhstan as the most unstable corridors
The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values reveals that the most volatile supply relationships are with Russia (CV 2.17), Kazakhstan (CV 1.15), and Japan (CV 1.07) — all exceeding 1.0, which indicates that year-to-year fluctuations frequently exceeded the mean. On the export side, South Africa (CV 0.75) and Türkiye (CV 0.62) were the most volatile destinations. Even China (CV 0.26), the most stable import source, saw meaningful price swings. The persistence of high volatility suggests that the market has not fully normalised after the 2022 shock and remains susceptible to geopolitical and energy-price disruptions.
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Conclusion
The EU's trade in other ferro-alloys (CN 720299) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural change and external disruption. The most significant development is the 49% decline in export volumes and the corresponding widening of the trade deficit by 46% — trends that point to a loss of EU export competitiveness in this niche segment, even as domestic production grew by 13.3% in volume and 58.8% in value. On the import side, Brazil's rise to become the EU's top supplier represents a major supply-chain reorientation, though it has not reduced the market's underlying concentration risk (HHI remains above 3,500). The 2022 energy crisis left deep scars: import prices for the main subcategory more than doubled in a single year, and volatility remains elevated. While net import reliance declined modestly from 26.8% to 20.8% over the period — reflecting the growth in EU production — the collapse in export propensity (from 16.9% to 9.9%) suggests that the EU is increasingly producing for its own market rather than competing globally. Stakeholders should monitor the concentration of supply sources, the price trajectory in the post-2022 environment, and the risk of further volatility in energy-intensive alloy supply chains.