Market evolution: Other cut flowers (CN 060319) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in fresh cut flowers and buds classified under customs code 060319. This is a residual category encompassing a diverse range of ornamental flowers excluding the major commodity groups of roses, carnations, orchids, chrysanthemums, and lilies. The period under review, from 2015 to 2025, witnessed the EU solidifying its position as a major global exporter, driven by strong price growth, while simultaneously becoming a larger and more concentrated import market. Key events, including significant supply shocks in 2022, have reshaped trade flows and highlighted the market's vulnerabilities.

1. Sustained Export-Led Growth Driven by Premiumization

The EU's external trade in CN 060319 flowers is characterized by a persistent, growing trade surplus, which expanded by 30.4% from 2015 to 2025. This growth, however, stems almost entirely from rising export values rather than increased volumes, pointing to a clear trend of premiumization and higher unit prices in the sector.

1.1 The EU as a Net Exporter with a Widening Surplus

Throughout the period, the EU maintained a strong positive trade balance. The surplus grew from €388 million in 2015 to €506 million in 2025, peaking at €613 million in 2021. This consistent surplus underscores the EU's role as a net supplier of these specialized cut flowers to the global market.

1.2 Price-Led Export Expansion

The most striking feature is the divergence between the evolution of export value and volume. Export volumes decreased by 4.4% over the decade, from 90,315 tonnes to 86,308 tonnes. In stark contrast, export values rose by 47.3%. This paradox is resolved by a 54.1% increase in the average export price, which climbed from €6,318 per tonne in 2015 to €9,737 per tonne in 2025. This indicates that EU exporters are succeeding in selling higher-value, premium varieties and compositions into international markets.

1.3 Import Growth Fueled by Both Volume and Price

On the import side, growth was more balanced. Import volumes increased by 51.3% (from 36,475 tonnes to 55,183 tonnes), while import values surged by 83.0%. The average import price also rose, by 21.0%, but from a lower base (€5,015/t to €6,067/t). This suggests the EU is sourcing more flowers from abroad, and is also paying higher prices for them, likely due to a combination of global inflation and shifting sourcing patterns toward more expensive origins.

2. Shifting Geographies of Supply and Demand

The partner landscapes for both imports and exports have undergone significant concentration and realignment, with African nations gaining ground as key suppliers and traditional European partners remaining the core destination for EU exports.

2.1 Import Sources: The Rise of Kenya and Colombia

The EU's import market is becoming more geographically focused. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration decreased slightly, but the data reveals powerful shifts among the top partners.

Kenya's share grew dramatically, making it the EU's single largest external supplier by 2025. Colombia's share also expanded impressively. In contrast, Israel's share contracted significantly. This points to a clear shift in sourcing toward East Africa and the Andean region for this category of flowers.

2.2 Export Destinations: Dependence on the UK and Growth in Russia

EU exports remain heavily concentrated on a few key markets. The United Kingdom is the dominant destination, though its share has fluctuated. The most notable development is the near-doubling of exports to the Russian Federation.

The strong growth to Russia, up to 2025, indicates sustained demand from that market despite geopolitical complexities. The United States and Switzerland also grew as key destinations, showing diversification beyond the UK.

3. Structural Dominance, Internal Reconfiguration, and Supply Shocks

The EU market is defined by the overwhelming dominance of the Netherlands as a re-export hub, a declining concentration in export supply, and severe, price-driven supply shocks that impacted 2022.

3.1 The Netherlands: The Indispensable Hub

The Netherlands is the undisputed core of the EU's CN 060319 trade. In 2025, Dutch exports accounted for approximately €803 million, or 95.5% of total EU exports. It is also by far the largest importer, receiving €272 million worth of flowers (over 80% of EU imports from non-EU countries). This dual role highlights its function as a central auction, logistics, and distribution hub, where imported flowers are aggregated, processed, and re-exported. Specialisation analysis confirms the Netherlands has an overwhelming comparative advantage (RCA of 6.18) in this category Market Structure.

3.2 A Diversifying yet Volatile Supply Base

While the Netherlands dominates, the export market's supplier concentration within the EU has decreased. The HHI for export value fell from 2,096 in 2015 to 1,639 in 2025, indicating a less concentrated base of EU member states acting as exporters. However, volatility among partners is high. Belarus showed extreme growth (+530%) but from a small base, while exports from Lithuania collapsed by 97%. This suggests significant re-routing of trade flows over the period.

3.3 The 2022 Supply Shocks: A Price Spiral in East Africa

The year 2022 stands out as an anomaly, marked by major price shocks originating from key African suppliers. These events explain the peak in the EU's trade surplus that year and the subsequent price increases.

• Kenya: A massive price shock was detected, with an abnormality score of 317.3. Import prices from Kenya spiked by 123.1% in 2022, contributing 29.7% to the total import value that year.
• Ecuador & Ethiopia: Similarly, Ecuador saw a 70.1% price increase (abnormality 25.2), and Ethiopia a 102.4% increase (abnormality 16.2). These simultaneous shocks across major supply regions likely reflect global energy, logistics, and inflation pressures in the post-pandemic period, severely impacting the cost structure for these perishable goods Supply Shocks.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for CN 060319 "other cut flowers" matured into a high-value segment. The bloc strengthened its net exporter status through significant price appreciation rather than volume growth. Import patterns shifted decisively toward African suppliers like Kenya, while exports remained anchored to the UK and expanded significantly into Russia. Structurally, the market is built around the Netherlands' central logistical role, though the export supplier base within the EU became slightly more diversified. The period was punctuated by a severe price shock in 2022, primarily from East African origins, underscoring the market's sensitivity to external supply-chain disruptions. The overarching trend is one of premiumization and geographic reconfiguration within a still highly concentrated trading system.