Market evolution: Cut roses (CN 060311) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union is one of the world's largest consumers of fresh cut flowers, and cut roses (CN 060311) represent the single most traded flower product globally. This report examines the evolution of EU trade flows for fresh cut roses and buds suitable for bouquets or ornamental purposes over the period 2015–2025. The analysis covers imports from non-EU countries and exports to the rest of the world, drawing on value (EUR), volume (tonnes), unit prices, and supplementary unit counts. As the trade overview dashboard reveals, the decade has been marked by a structural shift in sourcing geographies, a dramatic increase in unit values, and the deepening of the EU's trade deficit in this product.

1. A Widening Deficit Driven by Price Inflation Rather Than Volume Growth

The EU trade deficit in cut roses grew by 65% in value over the period

The EU has been a persistent net importer of cut roses throughout the period. The trade deficit widened from €445.6 million in 2015 to €737.2 million in 2025, representing a 65.4% deterioration (General Overview). At its widest, the deficit reached €752.8 million (in 2024). This expansion occurred despite a substantial decline in the physical volume of imports, pointing to a price-driven phenomenon.

Import volumes fell sharply while import values surged

The following table summarises the key import and export indicators:

Source: General Overview

The most striking feature is the divergence between mass-based and supplementary-unit-based import quantities. While tonnage imports dropped by 38%, the count of imported items (pieces) declined by only 5.4%. This indicates that the average weight per stem has been decreasing — consistent with a shift toward lighter, more compact rose varieties or changes in grading and packaging practices. Meanwhile, the mass-based import price more than doubled (+131.7%), suggesting that inflationary pressures, supply chain cost increases (energy, logistics, labour in origin countries), and possibly a move toward premium varieties have all contributed to rising costs.

The EU's own exports became more expensive but shrank in volume

Export unit prices rose from €6,242/t to €8,202/t (+31.4%), yet export volumes contracted by 28%. The supplementary export count fell even more dramatically — from 682 million stems to 403 million (−40.9%) — implying that the EU is exporting fewer, but relatively heavier and more expensive stems. The trade dashboard shows that EU export prices consistently exceeded import prices, reflecting the role of the Netherlands as a re-export and auction hub that adds value through logistics, quality grading, and market access.

2. Shifting Sourcing Geographies: The Rise of Latin America and the Consolidation of East Africa

Kenya remained the dominant supplier, but Ecuador's market share exploded

The partner analysis reveals that the composition of EU rose imports changed markedly over the decade. The table below shows the evolution of the top seven suppliers by value:

Source: Partners dashboard

Ecuador emerged as the most dramatic success story. From €130 million in 2015, its exports of cut roses to the EU surged to €329 million in 2025 — a 152% increase — placing it almost on par with Kenya. This growth reflects Ecuador's strong competitive position in long-stemmed, high-head-size roses, its proximity to European markets via air freight through Miami and directly, and sustained investment in greenhouse technology and logistics infrastructure.

Colombia similarly more than doubled its shipments (€25M → €54M), benefiting from the same Andean advantages and a favourable trade preference framework under the EU's Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP).

Kenya maintained its position as the top supplier with modest growth (+15.4%), while Ethiopia showed stable but slower growth (+7.2%). The East African cluster (Kenya, Ethiopia, Uganda) collectively supplied over €526 million in 2025, remaining the backbone of EU rose sourcing.

Zimbabwe effectively collapsed from the EU market, falling from €3.0 million to negligible levels (−99.9%). This mirrors the broader economic and political deterioration that has affected Zimbabwe's horticultural export sector. The volatility data shows Zimbabwe had a coefficient of variation of 0.90 — among the highest of any partner — confirming the instability of this trade link (Volatility analysis).

Supply concentration remained moderate, with slight diversification on the import side

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value remained broadly stable, declining marginally from 3,003 to 2,910 (−3.1%). This indicates that while individual partner shares shifted, the overall degree of concentration did not change dramatically — the market remained moderately concentrated around Kenya, Ecuador, and Ethiopia. The volume-based HHI fell somewhat more (from 3,566 to 2,940, −17.5%), reflecting the growing dispersion of physical sourcing.

On the export side, the HHI declined from 3,340 to 3,086 (−7.6%) by value, suggesting some diversification of EU export destinations.

Source: Concentration dashboard

3. The Netherlands as Europe's Rose Entrepôt, and the Geopolitical Reshaping of Export Destinations

The Netherlands dominates both imports and re-exports of cut roses

The reporter analysis underscores the extraordinary role of the Netherlands in the EU cut rose trade. Dutch imports from non-EU countries rose from €538 million to €804 million (+49.5%), representing 86.9% of all EU extra-EU rose imports in 2025. The Netherlands also accounted for 96.6% of EU extra-EU exports (€182M of €189M), confirming its function as the continental hub — importing roses from Africa and Latin America, passing them through the Royal FloraHolland auction system, and distributing them across Europe and beyond.

The specialisation analysis confirms this: the Netherlands had an RCA of 6.42 and a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.73 in 2025 — by far the highest in the EU — with 93.1% of its extra-EU trade in this product accounted for by production/re-export specialisation. No other EU member came close.

Other EU member states showed varied trajectories:

Source: Reporters dashboard

Spain nearly doubled its imports, likely reflecting the growth of domestic consumption and the role of Spanish distributors in sourcing directly from Latin America. Germany, traditionally a major market, saw its direct extra-EU imports fall by 44% — possibly reflecting a shift toward sourcing through Dutch intermediaries rather than importing directly.

Geopolitical shocks reshaped EU export destinations

The EU's export market structure was significantly reconfigured over the decade, reflecting both geopolitical events and evolving trade relationships:

Source: Partners dashboard

The United Kingdom remained the single largest export destination throughout the period, with trade essentially stable at around €95–96 million — a notable resilience given the disruption of Brexit. The volatility data shows a coefficient of variation of 0.41 for UK-bound exports, and a price shock detected in 2021 with a 40.6% upward price shift and an abnormality score of 4.0 — likely linked to post-Brexit customs friction and increased logistics costs (Supply shocks). That the total value held steady despite these price increases suggests the UK market's structural dependence on Dutch rose supply.

Russia experienced a dramatic decline of 63.6%, from €57 million to just €21 million. This decline accelerated after 2022, consistent with the EU sanctions regime and trade restrictions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The coefficient of variation for this corridor was 0.37, with the steepest drops occurring in 2022–2023.

Norway collapsed by 86.2% (€10.1M → €1.4M), an exceptionally volatile trajectory with a CV of 0.99 — the highest among EU export partners. This warrants further investigation but may reflect changes in Norwegian import patterns or increased competition from other suppliers.

By contrast, several smaller markets saw explosive growth: Serbia (+596%), Ukraine (+211%), and Türkiye (+271%). These emerging destinations partially compensated for the losses in Russia and Norway, reflecting the EU's expanding trade relationships with Western Balkan, Eastern European, and Turkish markets.

A notable price shock was detected in Ethiopian import supply in 2022

The supply shocks analysis identifies a significant price shock for Ethiopian imports centred on 2022, with an abnormality score of 100.8 and a price shift of +87.8%. This event affected a trade corridor representing 22.3% of import value. The shock likely reflects the combined impact of the Tigray conflict (2020–2022), which disrupted logistics and production in Ethiopia's Rift Valley flower-growing region, and the broader global energy price spike following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which dramatically raised air freight costs — a critical cost component for perishable flowers.

Conclusion

The EU cut rose market over 2015–2025 has been characterised by three overarching dynamics. First, unit prices have risen far more steeply than volumes have declined, resulting in a 44% increase in import expenditure despite a 38% drop in tonnage — a pattern consistent with global inflationary pressures, rising logistics costs, and possible premiumisation trends in consumer preferences. Second, the sourcing geography has shifted toward Latin America, with Ecuador and Colombia dramatically increasing their market shares, while East African suppliers (Kenya, Ethiopia) maintained steady but slower growth. The near-total disappearance of Zimbabwe from the market highlights the fragility of smaller suppliers. Third, the Netherlands' role as Europe's indispensable rose hub has only strengthened, absorbing 87% of extra-EU imports and 97% of exports, while the EU's export destinations were reshaped by geopolitical forces — most notably the sanctions-driven decline in trade with Russia and the post-Brexit reconfiguration of the UK corridor. The growth of exports to Serbia, Ukraine, and Türkiye suggests that EU rose traders are actively diversifying their destination markets in response. Looking ahead, the interplay between rising input costs (energy, logistics, labour in origin countries), climate-related production risks in both Africa and Latin America, and evolving consumer preferences will continue to shape this market.