Market evolution: Oil tankers (CN 89012010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in sea-going tankers (customs code 89012010) over the 2015–2025 period. Sea-going tankers are large vessels designed for the maritime transport of liquid cargo—primarily crude oil and refined petroleum products. The EU, home to major shipbuilding nations and some of the world's largest shipping fleets, plays a significant role in global tanker trade, both as a builder and as an operator. Over the past decade, the EU's position in this market has undergone a marked structural transformation: exports have contracted sharply while imports have grown, leading to a dramatic widening of the trade deficit. The following sections trace the main dynamics behind this shift.

1. A Widening Trade Gap: EU Exports Fall as Imports Rise

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between EU imports and exports of sea-going tankers. While the EU entered the period with an almost balanced trade position, it ended with a substantial and growing deficit.

1.1 EU exports declined by more than half in value

Over the decade, EU exports of sea-going tankers fell from €2.24 billion in 2015 to €972 million in 2025, a drop of 56.5%. The number of vessels exported declined correspondingly, from 130 units to just 53 units (−59.2%). Despite the lower unit count, the average price per tanker edged up by 6.6%, from approximately €17.2 million to €18.3 million per vessel—suggesting that the EU continued to build larger or more specialised (and more expensive) tankers even as volumes contracted.

1.2 EU imports increased, driven by rising vessel counts

In contrast, EU imports of sea-going tankers rose from €2.34 billion in 2015 to €3.11 billion in 2025, an increase of 32.9%. The number of imported vessels grew even more strongly, from 67 units to 119 units (+77.6%). Notably, the average price per imported tanker declined by 25.2%, from approximately €34.9 million to €26.1 million. This combination—more units at a lower average price—could reflect a shift towards smaller or second-hand tanker acquisitions, or increasing competition among foreign suppliers.

1.3 The EU trade balance swung from near-equilibrium to a €2 billion deficit

In 2015, the EU's trade balance in sea-going tankers stood at −€99 million—a near-equilibrium position. By 2025, this had deteriorated to −€2.13 billion, representing a swing of over 2,000%. The data also shows that at some point during the period the EU achieved a trade surplus of over €1 billion, highlighting the volatility inherent in this capital-intensive market where individual large orders can shift aggregate figures significantly.

2. Shifting Geography: Changing Partners and Internal EU Dynamics

Behind the headline trade figures lie significant shifts in both the EU's external trade partners and the internal distribution of trade across EU Member States.

2.1 Export destinations show sharp declines and emerging niches

The EU's traditional export markets for tankers contracted considerably over the period. Exports to the Bahamas—the largest single destination in 2015 at €167 million—collapsed to €12.8 million by 2025 (−92.3%). Similarly, exports to Bangladesh fell from €8.9 million to €627,000 (−93.0%). Japan, once a €49.9 million destination, declined to €30.3 million (−39.3%). Conversely, the United Arab Emirates emerged as a growing market, with exports rising from €10.9 million to €16.7 million (+53.8%).

2.2 Import sources diversified from Liberia and Russia towards East Asia

On the import side, the sourcing landscape transformed. Liberia, the largest import partner in 2015 at €130 million, saw its share collapse to €27.8 million (−78.6%). Russia's contribution remained marginal. Meanwhile, Viet Nam emerged as a major supplier, growing from €34.6 million to €107.4 million (+210.8%), and Japan's exports to the EU surged from €6.3 million to €30.0 million (+374.1%). These shifts reflect the growing prominence of Asian shipyards—particularly in South Korea, China, Japan, and Viet Nam—in the global tanker construction market.

2.3 Poland and Denmark illustrate divergent trajectories within the EU

The internal EU picture is equally revealing. Poland was the EU's largest exporter and importer of tankers in 2015, but its trade volumes contracted sharply by 2025: exports fell from €1.20 billion to €307 million (−74.4%), and imports from €1.20 billion to €304 million (−74.7%). Denmark, by contrast, moved in the opposite direction—exports surged from €76 million to €386 million (+405.7%), and imports grew from €127 million to €498 million (+291.5%). France also emerged as a major importer, jumping from €76 million to €1.86 billion—an extraordinary increase of 2,359%, likely reflecting one or more very large tanker orders placed with non-EU shipyards.

3. Market Concentration: From Fragmented to Consolidated Sourcing

The structure of the EU's tanker market underwent significant changes in terms of trade concentration and the specialisation profiles of individual Member States.

3.1 Import concentration increased dramatically

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports of sea-going tankers rose from 1,013 in 2015 to 4,529 in 2025—an increase of 347%. An HHI below 1,500 typically indicates a competitive, fragmented market, while values above 2,500 suggest high concentration. The EU's import market thus shifted from a broadly diversified sourcing base to one dominated by a smaller number of suppliers. This consolidation likely reflects the concentration of global shipbuilding capacity in a handful of countries (South Korea, China, and increasingly Viet Nam and Japan).

Export concentration, by contrast, remained relatively stable (HHI of 1,361 to 1,419), indicating that the EU's export base remained fragmented across multiple destination markets even as volumes declined.

3.2 Cyprus and Denmark show strong specialisation, while larger economies do not

Specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that the EU's tanker trade is driven by a small number of specialised Member States. Cyprus displays the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) at 0.9991, with tankers representing nearly 70% of its product-category exports—consistent with Cyprus's status as one of the world's largest ship registries. Denmark shows strong specialisation (RSCA of 0.841), with tankers accounting for about 20% of its relevant exports. In contrast, Germany (RSCA of −0.404) and the Netherlands (RSCA of −0.812) are net importers in this category, despite being major economies with significant maritime sectors.

3.3 France's import surge points to episodic, order-driven volatility

The tanker market is inherently lumpy: a single order for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) or a batch of Suezmax vessels can represent hundreds of millions of euros. France's imports jumping to €1.86 billion in 2025—accounting for roughly 60% of total EU imports—is a clear illustration of this dynamic. Such concentration in a single reporting Member State introduces significant year-to-year volatility that is structural rather than cyclical. Similarly, the spike in EU import volumes to 17,904 units at some point during the period (compared to a typical range of 37–119 units) likely reflects a batch of smaller tanker deliveries or an exceptional reporting event, rather than a sustained trend.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in sea-going tankers underwent a fundamental structural shift. The Union transitioned from a roughly balanced trading position to one characterised by a €2.1 billion trade deficit, as exports declined by 57% while imports grew by 33%. This transformation reflects broader global trends: the centre of gravity in shipbuilding has continued to shift towards Asia, with countries like Viet Nam and Japan gaining share as suppliers to EU buyers. Within the EU, the market became increasingly concentrated—both in terms of sourcing (import HHI rose from 1,013 to 4,529) and in terms of the Member States driving trade activity. France, Denmark, and Cyprus emerged as key players, while traditional centres like Poland and Germany saw their roles diminish. The inherent lumpiness of the tanker market, where single large orders can dominate annual figures, means that year-to-year comparisons should be interpreted with caution. Nonetheless, the long-term trend is clear: the EU is increasingly an importer rather than a builder of sea-going tankers, a dynamic that raises questions about the future of European shipbuilding competitiveness in this strategic segment.