Market evolution: Non-electric engines and motors (CN 8412) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the trade evolution of the European Union in products classified under customs heading 8412, covering non-electric engines and motors (excluding steam turbines, internal combustion piston engines, hydraulic turbines, water wheels, and gas turbines) and their parts. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU’s external trade in this sector underwent significant transformation. The overall market expanded, but the patterns of growth for exports and imports diverged markedly, leading to a shift in the EU's trade balance and increased vulnerability to specific global suppliers. The analysis is based on the provided annual trade data, which excludes incomplete periods.
1. Sustained Export Growth Driven by Value Appreciation
The EU demonstrated consistent export growth in heading 8412 throughout the period, though this growth was characterized by a strong price effect rather than a proportional increase in physical volume.
Exports grew robustly in value but more moderately in volume
From 2015 to 2025, the total value of EU exports increased by 80.6%, rising from €3.13 billion to €5.65 billion. Over the same period, the exported quantity in net mass grew by a less pronounced 40.3%, from 163,910 tonnes to 229,997 tonnes. This gap indicates that the average export price per tonne rose by 28.7% during the decade, contributing substantially to the overall value growth.
The United States remained the primary destination, while Russia vanished as a market
The United States solidified its position as the top export market for the EU, with export value increasing by 113.7% to €1.66 billion by 2025. Other traditional partners like the United Kingdom and China also saw significant growth. In stark contrast, exports to the Russian Federation collapsed from €112.8 million in 2015 to virtually zero in 2025, reflecting the impact of geopolitical sanctions and trade restrictions.
| Partner Country | Export Value 2015 (€ billion) | Export Value 2025 (€ billion) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 0.776 | 1.658 | +113.7% |
| United Kingdom | 0.389 | 0.571 | +47.1% |
| China | 0.317 | 0.456 | +43.6% |
| Russian Federation | 0.113 | 0.000 | -100.0% |
Denmark and Italy were the fastest-growing EU exporters
Among the EU Member States, Denmark and Italy exhibited exceptional export growth. Denmark's exports grew by 157.7% (from €317.5 million to €818.2 million), and Italy's by 127.3% (from €245.0 million to €556.8 million), significantly outpacing Germany's 33.5% growth. This suggests a diversification of export leadership within the EU.
2. A Dramatic Surge in Import Volume and a Shift in Sourcing
The most striking trend in the period was the explosive growth of EU imports, which outpaced export growth in both volume and value terms, fundamentally altering the trade dynamics.
Import volume nearly tripled, led by components and parts
EU import volume in tonnes increased by an extraordinary 187.8% (from 136,480 to 392,769 tonnes), while import value rose by 147.0% (from €1.73 billion to €4.27 billion). This volume-led growth indicates a major increase in the physical intake of these products. The sub-category "Parts of non-electrical engines and motors, n.e.s." (841290) dominated imports, with its quantity growing from 80,115 to 301,248 tonnes, pointing to deep integration into regional and global manufacturing supply chains.
View product segment breakdown
China and Turkey became the dominant suppliers, reshaping the import landscape
The sourcing of imports shifted dramatically towards emerging economies. Imports from China grew by 370% to €1.53 billion, while those from Türkiye increased by 240% to €426.6 million. Conversely, imports from traditional suppliers like Japan and South Korea declined or stagnated. This rapid rise of China and Türkiye significantly increased import concentration.
| Supplier Country | Import Value 2015 (€ million) | Import Value 2025 (€ million) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 324.9 | 1,526.6 | +369.9% |
| Türkiye | 125.5 | 426.6 | +239.8% |
| India | 71.6 | 524.0 | +631.7% |
| United States | 506.0 | 854.9 | +69.0% |
| Japan | 136.8 | 93.1 | -32.0% |
Import concentration increased, heightening supply chain risks
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose by 33.5% (from 1,526 to 2,038), moving the market from a state of moderate to one of high concentration. The HHI by volume more than doubled. This increasing reliance on a few key suppliers, particularly China, introduces potential vulnerabilities in terms of supply stability and price volatility.
3. Trade Balance Narrowed and Export Propensity Rose Sharply
Despite continued positive trade balances, the structural shift towards faster import growth eroded the EU's net exporter position and highlighted the sector's growing integration into global trade.
The positive trade balance persisted but shrunk from its peak
The EU maintained a trade surplus throughout the period, which stood at €1.38 billion in 2025, only marginally lower than the €1.40 billion recorded in 2015. However, this masks significant fluctuation; the surplus reached a peak of nearly €2.5 billion around 2018 before contracting due to the surge in imports.
Trade intensity and export propensity nearly doubled
Indicators of the sector's global engagement show a dramatic increase. Trade intensity ((Imports + Exports) / Production) rose from 33.0% to 78.2%. Similarly, export propensity (Exports / Production) climbed from 24.3% to 67.2%. These figures reveal that EU production became far more oriented towards external markets over the decade.
View trade intensity and export propensity
Price shocks and geopolitical events caused volatility
Analysis detected several significant trade shocks. These include a major price shock in exports to Australia in 2021 (with a price shift of +61.2%) and a near-total supply shock to the Russian Federation in 2025 (a -98.3% volume shift), coinciding with sanctions. The United Kingdom export market also experienced a notable price spike in 2022, possibly linked to post-Brexit adjustments.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in non-electric engines and motors (CN 8412) evolved along two divergent paths. On the export side, the EU sustained growth primarily through price appreciation, maintaining a positive but narrowing trade balance. Its export markets remained diversified, with the U.S. as the cornerstone, though Russia disappeared as a destination due to geopolitical rupture. On the import side, the period witnessed a transformative surge in volume, led by parts and components, driven by an enormous increase in sourcing from China, Türkiye, and India. This trend heightened import concentration and the EU's exposure to supply chain risks. The sector became deeply integrated into global trade, with both trade intensity and export propensity nearly doubling. While the EU's production base remained strong, the evolving trade patterns underscore a growing dependence on global sourcing and highlight vulnerabilities that future industrial and trade policy may need to address.