Market evolution: Non-electric industrial furnaces (CN 8417) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's trade in non-electric industrial furnaces and ovens (customs code 8417) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers a broad range of equipment—including furnaces for ore and metal processing, bakery ovens, incinerators, and their parts—used across heavy industry, food processing, and waste management. Despite remaining a strong net exporter throughout the period, the EU's trade profile underwent significant structural transformation. Total export value declined by 16.2% (from EUR 1.54 billion to EUR 1.29 billion), while import value surged by 71.0% (from EUR 190.5 million to EUR 325.7 million). The trade surplus, though still substantial at EUR 963 million in 2025, narrowed by 28.5% from its 2015 level. These headline figures mask a series of deeper shifts—including a dramatic unit-price increase on the export side, the near-total collapse of the Russian market, and a rapid rise of Asian suppliers on the import side—that are analysed in the sections that follow.

For full product definitions and the complete dashboard, see the Scope & Definitions section.

1. The Export Volume–Value Divergence: Fewer Tonnes, Higher Unit Values

The most striking macro-level trend in EU exports of CN 8417 products is the sharp divergence between physical volumes and unit prices. Between 2015 and 2025, export quantity fell by 54.5% (from 161,498 tonnes to 73,548 tonnes), while the average export price rose by 83.9% (from EUR 9,527/t to EUR 17,525/t). This combination meant that the overall decline in export value was limited to 16.2%, cushioned by a near-doubling of unit values. A similar, though less extreme, pattern appears on the import side: import quantities grew 38.4% (from 29,017 t to 40,161 t) while import prices rose 23.5% (from EUR 6,566/t to EUR 8,110/t), resulting in a 71.0% increase in import value.

1.1. Steep volume decline across all export product sub-headings

The contraction in export tonnage was broad-based. Every sub-heading saw significant volume losses over the decade:

(Source: Product Segment Breakdown)

The "other furnaces" category (841780) experienced the steepest decline in both volume (−70.3%) and value (−45.3%), suggesting that European manufacturers are either relocating production of standard industrial furnaces abroad or ceding market share to foreign competitors.

1.2. Unit prices nearly doubled on the export side

The rise in average export prices was substantial across all segments, but particularly pronounced in parts (841790), where the unit price climbed from EUR 11,592/t to EUR 21,146/t (+82.4%), and in metal/ore furnaces (841710), where it rose from EUR 9,608/t to EUR 17,129/t (+78.3%). This points to a premiumisation dynamic: European manufacturers are concentrating on higher-value, more technologically sophisticated equipment—such as advanced kilns, specialty heat-treatment furnaces, or customised incineration systems—while lower-value, commodity-grade products are increasingly sourced or produced elsewhere.

1.3. Production volumes fell while production values rose

EU domestic production data reinforces this picture. The number of items produced declined from 99.2 million to 60.0 million (−39.5%), yet production value increased from EUR 1.65 billion to EUR 1.98 billion (+20.4%). This confirms that the EU furnace industry is producing fewer units at higher average values, consistent with a move up the value chain.

(Source: Production volumes)

2. Geopolitical Reorientation: Russia's Collapse and the Rise of New Export Markets

The period 2015–2025 saw a dramatic reorientation of the EU's export geography, driven primarily by the near-total loss of the Russian market following the sanctions imposed after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

2.1. EU exports to Russia fell by 98.6%

In 2015, Russia was the EU's single largest export destination for CN 8417 products, receiving EUR 259.1 million worth of furnaces and ovens—accounting for approximately 17% of total EU exports. By 2025, this figure had collapsed to just EUR 3.7 million, a decline of 98.6%. This was by far the largest absolute decline among all partner countries and the primary driver of the overall drop in export value.

(Source: Top partners by value)

The volatility coefficient for exports to Russia was 0.73, the second-highest among all partners, reflecting the abrupt nature of the decline. Exports to Iran also fell sharply (−68.1%), likely also related to sanctions, though the absolute value involved was much smaller.

2.2. Türkiye, Mexico, and the United Kingdom absorbed some of the lost volume

In partial compensation, several markets grew. Türkiye (+40.9%), Mexico (+24.2%), and the United Kingdom (+32.3%) all increased their imports of EU furnaces. Türkiye's growth is consistent with its expanding manufacturing base and its geographic proximity to the EU, while Mexico's rise may reflect nearshoring trends in global supply chains. Post-Brexit trade dynamics may have contributed to the UK's increase, potentially reflecting stockpiling or adjustments in supply arrangements.

2.3. Import concentration surged as China and India expanded rapidly

On the import side, the EU's sourcing landscape shifted markedly toward Asia. Chinese imports into the EU more than tripled, rising from EUR 39.0 million to EUR 133.6 million (+242.4%), making China the EU's largest supplier of non-electric furnaces by 2025. Indian imports grew even faster in percentage terms (+287.4%, from EUR 2.9 million to EUR 11.2 million), though from a much lower base. Meanwhile, US-sourced imports fell by 44.3% (from EUR 30.0 million to EUR 16.7 million).

This geographic shift is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value, which nearly doubled from 1,155 to 2,269 (+96.5%). An HHI approaching 2,500 signals a moderately concentrated market, suggesting increasing reliance on a smaller number of supplier countries—principally China.

(Source: Concentration)

3. Internal EU Market Shifts: Specialisation, Import Growth, and Emerging Vulnerabilities

Beyond external trade flows, the structure of the EU's internal production and consumption of non-electric furnaces has also evolved in important ways, with implications for industrial policy and strategic autonomy.

3.1. Italy and Germany dominate EU production and exports

Italy is by far the EU's leading producer and exporter of CN 8417 products, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.62 and a production share of 34.2% by value. It accounts for roughly 29% of EU exports (EUR 370.8 million in 2025). Germany follows as the second-largest exporter (EUR 347.2 million in 2025, +11.4% over the period). Together, these two countries represent approximately 56% of all EU exports. Spain emerged as the third-largest exporter with notable growth (+67.1%, from EUR 102.5 million to EUR 171.3 million), while Czechia nearly doubled its exports (+97.2%).

(Source: Top reporters by value, Specialisation)

3.2. Several EU members shifted from exporters to net importers

A number of EU member states that were significant exporters in 2015 saw their export positions erode while their imports grew substantially:

Belgium and France stand out: both saw their exports fall sharply while their extra-EU imports surged by triple-digit percentages. This suggests that furnace production capacity in these countries may have declined or shifted to serving intra-EU demand, while their industrial sectors increasingly rely on imported equipment. Germany, by contrast, grew both its exports (+11.4%) and its imports (+62.6%), suggesting a dual role as both a major producer and an expanding market for imported furnaces.

3.3. Parts dominate the import mix, signalling dependency on foreign component supply

The breakdown of EU imports by sub-heading reveals that parts (841790) consistently represent the largest category by both volume and value. In 2025, parts accounted for 28,298 tonnes (70.5% of total import volume) and EUR 239.2 million (73.4% of total import value). The unit price of imported parts rose from EUR 5,929/t to EUR 8,451/t (+42.5%).

The near-doubling of parts imports suggests that even where final assembly remains in the EU, the supply chain for furnace components is becoming increasingly internationalised—and, given the surge in Chinese exports, likely increasingly dependent on Asian suppliers. This has implications for the EU's industrial resilience and its strategic autonomy in capital goods manufacturing.

3.4. Trade intensity and export propensity both increased, confirming the sector's outward orientation

The EU's trade intensity in this sector rose from 49.1% to 77.3% (+57.6%), while export propensity increased from 46.1% to 73.5% (+59.5%). Both indicators are well above 50%, confirming that the EU furnace industry is fundamentally export-oriented and increasingly integrated into global markets. While this reflects competitiveness, it also implies greater exposure to external shocks—a concern highlighted by the near-total loss of the Russian market within a single year.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in non-electric industrial furnaces (CN 8417) over 2015–2025 tells a story of strategic repositioning under geopolitical pressure. The sector remains strongly export-oriented, with a healthy trade surplus of EUR 963 million in 2025, but the character of that trade has changed profoundly. Export volumes have halved while unit values have nearly doubled, reflecting a shift toward higher-value, specialised equipment. The near-total loss of the Russian market—previously the EU's largest single export destination—removed EUR 255 million in annual exports and forced a reorientation toward Türkiye, Mexico, and other emerging markets.

On the import side, China has emerged as the dominant supplier, with imports more than tripling to EUR 134 million, and import concentration has risen sharply. The growing dependence on imported parts, in particular, signals a deepening integration of Asian suppliers into the EU furnace value chain. While Italy and Germany remain the backbone of EU production and exports, several member states—notably Belgium and France—have seen their positions erode.

Looking ahead, the EU furnace industry faces a dual challenge: maintaining its competitive edge in high-value equipment while managing the strategic risks of supply-chain dependency and market concentration. The data suggests that the sector has successfully moved up the value chain, but the pace and direction of import growth—particularly from China—warrant close monitoring by policymakers concerned with industrial resilience and technological sovereignty.