Market evolution: Motor vehicle bodies (CN 87079090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the European Union's external trade in motor vehicle bodies classified under Combined Nomenclature code 87079090 — covering bodies for tractors, vehicles for the transport of ten or more persons, goods transport vehicles, and special purpose motor vehicles, excluding those destined for industrial assembly of certain smaller vehicles. Over the period 2015–2025, this market has undergone significant structural transformation. The EU has remained a consistent net exporter of motor vehicle bodies, yet the geographic composition of both its export destinations and import sources has shifted dramatically. Export volumes in tonnes have fallen by nearly half, while unit counts have tripled, reflecting a fundamental change in the type and weight profile of bodies being traded. Meanwhile, import values have grown by over three-quarters, driven in particular by a meteoric rise in sourcing from China. These dynamics have unfolded against a backdrop of geopolitical shocks — including sanctions on Russia and post-Brexit trade reconfiguration — that have left lasting imprints on trade flows. The following sections examine these trends in detail.

1. The Reorientation of EU Export Markets: From Transatlantic to European Neighbourhood

1.1 A sharp decline in total export volume masks divergent regional trajectories

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's total export value of motor vehicle bodies fell by 23.4%, from EUR 783.6 million to EUR 600.2 million. More strikingly, export quantities measured in tonnes dropped by 48.2%, from approximately 89,983 tonnes to 46,585 tonnes — the lowest level in the entire period. However, the average export price per tonne rose by 47.9%, from EUR 8,708 to EUR 12,883, indicating a shift toward higher-value, lighter bodies.

The simultaneous tripling of supplementary unit counts (from 305,274 to 898,199 items) alongside the halving of tonnage reveals that the EU is exporting far more individual bodies, but each body weighs considerably less on average. This likely reflects a compositional shift toward lighter commercial vehicle bodies, delivery van bodies, or partially assembled body components rather than heavy-duty truck or bus bodies.

1.2 The collapse of the United States and Russian markets reshaped the export landscape

The most dramatic single-market development was the near-total evaporation of EU exports to the United States, which plunged by 92.1% — from EUR 312.5 million in 2015 to just EUR 24.5 million in 2025. The US had been the EU's second-largest export market, on par with the United Kingdom. This collapse likely reflects a combination of tariff-related trade tensions, reshoring of production, and changes in North American supply chain configurations over the decade.

Equally dramatic was the complete disappearance of exports to the Russian Federation, which fell to essentially zero (EUR 1,330 in 2025 from EUR 39.4 million in 2015, a −100% change). This is directly attributable to the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Russian exports had peaked at EUR 131 million in 2018 before beginning a pre-sanctions decline, but the post-2022 sanctions effect was categorical.

1.3 Switzerland, Australia, and the United Kingdom emerged as compensatory growth markets

Against these losses, several markets expanded substantially:

Switzerland's surge from EUR 24.3 million to EUR 95.0 million (+290.3%) makes it the EU's single largest growth story, likely driven by its role as a logistics hub and its proximity to EU manufacturing centres. Australia's fourfold increase to EUR 27.4 million suggests growing demand in the Asia-Pacific region for European-manufactured vehicle bodies. The United Kingdom, despite post-Brexit trade frictions, remained the EU's largest single export market, growing modestly to EUR 316.3 million — a testament to the deeply integrated nature of the UK-EU automotive supply chain.

1.4 Germany's export dominance collapsed while Spain and Belgium gained ground

Among EU member states, the most striking intra-EU shift was the collapse of German exports, which fell by 91.3% from EUR 356.6 million to just EUR 31.0 million. Germany had been by far the EU's largest exporter of motor vehicle bodies in 2015, but by 2025 it had been overtaken by France (EUR 194.9 million, down 10.7%), Belgium (EUR 106.0 million, up 82.6%), Italy (EUR 52.9 million, up 69.7%), and Spain (EUR 56.6 million, up 301.0%). This reconfiguration suggests a geographical redistribution of body manufacturing and assembly within the EU, with production increasingly located in lower-cost Western and Southern European economies.

Spain's remarkable 301% growth is particularly noteworthy, potentially reflecting the country's growing role as a commercial vehicle manufacturing base. Belgium's 82.6% increase likely reflects its position as a logistics gateway and its specialised body-building industry.

2. China's Dramatic Rise as an Import Source and the Diversification of Supplier Risk

2.1 Import values grew by 78%, driven by both volume and price increases

EU imports of motor vehicle bodies grew significantly over the period, rising from EUR 53.9 million in 2015 to EUR 95.8 million in 2025 (+77.8%). Import quantities in tonnes increased more modestly at 23.6%, while the average import price per tonne rose by 43.8%. As with exports, supplementary unit counts grew far more rapidly than tonnage (+243.5%), from 65,497 to 224,990 items, confirming a structural shift toward lighter, higher-unit-count imports.

The halving of the per-unit import price (from EUR 823 to EUR 426) while the per-tonne price rose suggests that the EU is importing a growing volume of relatively inexpensive, lightweight bodies on a per-item basis — a pattern consistent with the sourcing of van and light commercial vehicle bodies from Asian manufacturers.

2.2 China emerged as the EU's most important new import source

The single most transformative change in EU imports was the explosive growth of Chinese supply. Chinese imports surged from EUR 1.3 million in 2015 to EUR 29.9 million in 2025 — a staggering increase of 2,292%. By 2025, China had become the EU's second-largest import source after Japan, having overtaken Türkiye and Serbia during the period.

This rise in Chinese imports aligns with the broader pattern of China's expanding role in the global automotive components supply chain, particularly for electric and commercial vehicles. The high volatility of China-sourced imports (coefficient of variation of 0.76) suggests that this is still a relatively new and fluctuating trade relationship.

2.3 Import concentration increased, raising potential supply-side vulnerability

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose by 40.1% over the period, from 1,889 to 2,648. This increase — pushing the index into what is typically considered a moderately concentrated market — reflects the growing dominance of a smaller number of supplier countries, principally Japan and China, which together account for an increasing share of EU imports.

The decline of previously significant suppliers such as Türkiye (−48.2%) and Serbia (−61.9%) contributed to this concentration. While Italy remained the EU's largest importing member state (EUR 43.6 million, up 49.4%), followed by France (EUR 8.9 million), Germany (EUR 6.1 million, up 179.6%), and notably Spain (EUR 7.4 million, up 3,276.3% from a very low base), the growing reliance on fewer external suppliers introduces a strategic consideration for supply chain resilience.

2.4 The United Kingdom re-emerged as a significant bilateral import partner

Post-Brexit, the United Kingdom's role as an import source grew substantially, with import values rising from EUR 3.5 million to EUR 10.0 million (+182.2%). This is particularly interesting given that the UK simultaneously remained the EU's largest export destination. The data thus reveals a pattern of deep bilateral integration in motor vehicle body trade between the EU and the UK, flowing in both directions — consistent with the highly integrated nature of cross-Channel automotive manufacturing, where bodies and components move back and forth across stages of the production process.

3. Rising Production Values, Declining Trade Openness, and the EU's Evolving Competitive Position

3.1 EU domestic production grew strongly in value but modestly in volume

According to PRODCOM production data, the EU's domestic production of motor vehicle bodies increased by 87.2% in value — from EUR 6.3 billion to EUR 11.8 billion — while production volume in units grew by only 13.9%, from 768,797 to 876,042 items. This divergence implies a substantial increase in the average value per unit produced, likely reflecting a combination of inflation, product mix evolution toward higher-value bodies (e.g., for electric vehicles or specialised applications), and the impact of increasing regulatory and technological complexity in vehicle body design and manufacture.

3.2 Sweden and Belgium lead EU specialisation, while large economies underperform

Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and normalised specialisation (RSCA) for 2025 reveals a striking pattern. The most specialised EU exporters of motor vehicle bodies are:

Sweden's exceptionally high RCA of 15.61 — despite contributing only 2.4% of EU exports — indicates that it produces a very high share of the EU's motor vehicle bodies relative to its overall manufacturing output, but much of this production may be consumed domestically or within the EU single market rather than exported to non-EU partners. At the opposite end, Luxembourg, Ireland, Estonia, Greece, and Latvia show minimal specialisation in this product category.

3.3 Trade intensity and export propensity declined, suggesting a more domestically oriented market

Two key indicators of market openness — trade intensity and export propensity — both declined over the period. Trade intensity fell by 17.5% (from 6.9% to 5.7%) and export propensity by 17.7% (from 6.2% to 5.1%). These declines indicate that a growing share of EU-produced motor vehicle bodies is being consumed within the EU's own internal market rather than exported to non-EU destinations. This trend may reflect the expansion of intra-EU demand (particularly for commercial vehicle bodies driven by e-commerce logistics), the impact of reshoring, or simply that the loss of major external markets (US, Russia) was not fully compensated by growth elsewhere.

3.4 The EU maintained its net exporter status despite a declining trade surplus

The EU's trade balance in motor vehicle bodies remained firmly positive throughout the period, though it narrowed by 30.9% — from EUR 729.7 million to EUR 504.3 million. The net import reliance remained negative (indicating net export status), moving from −5.7% to −4.7%. While the EU's structural position as a net exporter was preserved, the erosion of the surplus — driven simultaneously by falling exports and rising imports — points toward a gradual convergence of the trade flows.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in motor vehicle bodies (CN 87079090) between 2015 and 2025 has been characterised by three defining dynamics: a profound reorientation of export markets, the rapid rise of China as an import source, and a structural shift in the nature of the bodies being traded.

The loss of the US and Russian markets — together accounting for over EUR 350 million in annual exports at their peak — was only partially compensated by growth in Switzerland, Australia, and the continued stability of the UK market. Within the EU, Germany's dramatic retreat from motor vehicle body exports and the rise of Spain and Belgium point to a geographical reshaping of the manufacturing base.

On the import side, China's emergence as a major supplier (from EUR 1.3 million to EUR 29.9 million) is the defining story, contributing to increased supplier concentration and raising strategic questions about supply chain resilience, particularly in the context of the EU's evolving industrial policy toward automotive self-sufficiency.

Perhaps most fundamentally, the data reveals a market in which the EU is producing and trading motor vehicle bodies that are increasingly numerous but lighter and more varied in value — a pattern consistent with the ongoing transformation of the European commercial vehicle industry, the growth of logistics-driven van body demand, and the early stages of electrification. The decline in trade intensity and export propensity suggests that this market is becoming more inwardly oriented, with a greater share of production absorbed by the EU's own substantial and growing demand. Whether this represents a strategic consolidation or a missed opportunity for export growth will be a key question for the years ahead.