Market evolution: Live swine (CN 0103) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in live swine (CN 0103) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers three sub-categories: pure-bred breeding swine (010310), live non-breeding swine weighing under 50 kg (010391), and live non-breeding swine weighing 50 kg or more (010392). All figures relate to extra-EU trade — i.e., trade between the EU as a bloc and non-EU countries.

Over the decade, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of live swine. The trade surplus expanded by 63%, from €125.5 million in 2015 to €204.7 million in 2025. However, this headline growth masks striking structural dynamics: export value rose sharply while physical volumes barely moved, geographic trade patterns shifted toward Western Balkan and Eastern European markets, and the leadership of individual EU member states in export activity was substantially reshuffled. The following three sections explore these dynamics in detail.

1. A Price-Led Expansion: Export Value Grew While Volumes Stagnated

The EU's export revenues grew far faster than traded volumes

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU live swine exports rose by 61.4%, from €129.7 million to €209.4 million. Over the same period, export volume in tonnes increased by only 3.6%, from 74,147 tonnes to 76,843 tonnes. The average export price per tonne climbed from €1,749 to €2,724 (+55.8%), making price appreciation the dominant driver of value growth.

The number of animals exported declined substantially

Perhaps the most revealing indicator is the supplementary unit count — the number of individual animals exported. This figure fell by 27.6%, from 1,007,311 head in 2015 to 729,207 head in 2025, even as tonnage held steady. The implied average weight per exported animal rose from roughly 74 kg to 105 kg, suggesting a structural shift toward the export of heavier, more mature animals rather than younger stock. The export price per animal more than doubled over the same period, rising from €129 to €287 per head (+123%).

The COVID-19 shock of 2020 caused a sharp but temporary downturn

Export volume hit its decade low of 33,809 tonnes in 2020, less than half the 2015 level, as pandemic-related transport disruptions, processing plant closures, and demand uncertainty depressed trade. The number of animals exported fell to 514,875 — also the decade's minimum. Recovery was swift: by 2022, export tonnage had returned above 74,000 tonnes, and by 2025 it reached its highest recorded level in the period. Importantly, the value of exports recovered even faster than volumes, as unit prices rose sharply during and after the pandemic, likely reflecting supply tightness in European pig markets and broader inflationary pressures.

Imports remained marginal and also became more price-driven

EU imports of live swine from non-EU countries were small throughout the period — €4.2 million in 2015 and €4.7 million in 2025 (+12.1%). Import volumes actually declined by 23% (from 2,255 tonnes to 1,737 tonnes), while import prices per tonne rose by 45.6% (from €1,854 to €2,699). The trade surplus in value terms therefore widened from €125.5 million to €204.7 million (+63.1%), confirming the EU's deepening role as a net supplier of live swine to non-EU markets.

2. Geographic Diversification: Western Balkan and Eastern European Markets Rose in Importance

The United Kingdom remained the EU's dominant export partner

The United Kingdom was by far the largest single destination for EU live swine exports, absorbing €69.2 million in 2015 and €100.0 million in 2025 (+44.4%). In 2025, the UK accounted for approximately 48% of all extra-EU live swine export value. UK-bound trade was also relatively stable, with a coefficient of variation of 0.22 over the period. The UK is also the EU's leading external supplier of live swine imports (€1.9 million in 2025), though this figure remained nearly flat over the decade (−4.7%).

Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania emerged as fast-growing destinations

Several Western Balkan and Eastern European markets experienced striking growth from initially small bases:

Moldova's growth was the most dramatic, with export values increasing nearly fivefold. Bosnia and Herzegovina also quadrupled its intake. These surges likely reflect the modernisation of local livestock sectors in EU accession and neighbourhood countries, supported by Stabilisation and Association Agreements and technical cooperation programmes. Albania, despite being a smaller market, showed remarkably stable trade flows (coefficient of variation of just 0.11).

Georgia's import demand collapsed, and some markets showed high volatility

Georgia went from being a €3.1 million destination in 2015 to just €0.4 million in 2025 (−87.5%), suggesting a possible loss of market access, a shift in Georgian domestic sourcing, or sanitary and phytosanitary barriers. Serbia, while still a significant partner at €15.9 million, declined by 17.8% from its 2015 level and exhibited high volatility (CV of 0.42). Moldova, despite its strong growth trajectory, also displayed considerable year-to-year fluctuation (CV of 1.48), indicating that trade with that market has been episodic rather than steady.

Export concentration declined, signalling a broadening destination base

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value fell from 3,222 to 2,651 (−17.7%). Although the market remained moderately concentrated — with the UK alone accounting for nearly half of exports — the decline in HHI reflects the growing weight of secondary destinations. Import concentration, by contrast, edged up slightly from 3,259 to 3,396 (+4.2%), driven by Norway's rising share: Norwegian import values into the EU more than doubled from €0.9 million to €1.8 million (+108.1%).

3. Shifting Export Leadership: Denmark and Hungary Gained Ground While Germany Receded

Ireland consolidated its position as the EU's leading exporter, but Denmark and Hungary grew faster

Among EU member states acting as reporters, Ireland was the dominant exporter of live swine to non-EU countries, with its export value rising from €67.0 million to €96.6 million (+44.3%). However, the fastest growth in relative terms came from Denmark (+189.6%, from €15.7 million to €45.6 million) and Hungary (+186.2%, from €11.5 million to €32.9 million). By 2025, these three countries — Ireland, Denmark, and Hungary — together accounted for the vast majority of the EU's extra-EU live swine exports.

Denmark displayed the highest export specialisation in live swine

According to the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) indicators for 2025, Denmark scored an RSCA of 0.93 and a revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 26.0 — by far the highest among EU member states. This reflects Denmark's deep structural specialisation in pig production and its renowned genetics sector. Croatia (RSCA 0.55) and Latvia (RSCA 0.43) also showed notable specialisation. By contrast, Ireland — the EU's largest exporter by absolute value — had an RSCA of −0.93, indicating that live swine exports represent a very small share of Ireland's overall trade profile relative to the EU average, despite the large absolute volumes.

Germany's export role deteriorated sharply

Germany's extra-EU live swine exports fell from €4.9 million in 2015 to just €1.3 million in 2025 (−72.9%). Germany also saw its imports of live swine collapse from €0.4 million to €0.03 million (−92.8%). This decline likely reflects structural pressures on the German pig sector, including tightening environmental regulations, declining herd sizes, and increased competition from neighbouring member states. Germany's export minimum of €0.5 million during the period confirms that the decline was not solely a pandemic artefact but rather a sustained trend.

Import patterns shifted, with Belgium and Sweden emerging as larger net importers

On the import side, Belgium's live swine imports surged from €0.3 million to €1.8 million (+470.8%), while Sweden's rose from €0.1 million to €1.8 million (+1,205.0%). Ireland also remained a significant importer at €1.9 million (+66.1%). These shifts may reflect targeted sourcing of specialised breeding stock from non-EU origins — notably Norway, whose exports to the EU doubled — to support domestic herd improvement programmes.

Product composition reveals divergent price trajectories across segments

The product segment breakdown shows that the three sub-categories of live swine followed very different paths in terms of pricing:

Lightweight non-breeding swine (010391) saw the steepest price increase (+89.9%), while heavy non-breeding swine (010392) — which dominated export volumes at 65,285 tonnes in 2025 — recorded more moderate price growth. Breeding swine (010310) commanded the highest per-tonne prices by a wide margin, consistent with the premium placed on genetic quality. Notably, breeding swine export values rose from €19.9 million to €48.2 million, driven by both volume growth (from 1,755 to 3,140 tonnes) and price appreciation.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's live swine trade with non-EU countries underwent a significant transformation. The overall trade surplus expanded by 63% to nearly €205 million, but this growth was overwhelmingly driven by rising unit prices rather than expanding physical volumes. In fact, the number of animals exported actually declined by over a quarter, implying a structural shift toward the export of heavier and higher-value stock.

Geographically, the market diversified. While the United Kingdom continued to absorb roughly half of all exports, Moldova, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania emerged as rapidly growing secondary markets, and the overall export concentration declined. At the same time, Georgia's trade with the EU collapsed, and some markets proved highly volatile from year to year.

Among EU member states, Denmark and Hungary emerged as increasingly important exporters alongside the perennial leader Ireland, while Germany's role diminished sharply. Denmark's exceptional specialisation in live swine trade, combined with the sector's sensitivity to regulatory, sanitary, and macroeconomic conditions, suggests that the geographic and structural patterns documented here will continue to evolve — particularly as EU neighbourhood policies, animal disease dynamics, and sustainability regulations shape the continent's pig industry in the years ahead.