Market evolution: Live sheep and goats (CN 0104) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in live sheep and goats (customs code 0104) over the period 2015–2025. The product heading covers both live sheep (010410) and live goats (010420), with sheep accounting for the vast majority of trade volumes. Over the decade, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter of live small ruminants, while imports surged from a negligible base—driven almost entirely by a single structural shift in the trade relationship with the United Kingdom following Brexit. Export values more than doubled, supported by rising prices and an increasingly diversified destination base across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.

1. A Robust Export Expansion Driven by Price Appreciation

The EU's exports of live sheep and goats grew substantially between 2015 and 2025, but the expansion was primarily fuelled by rising unit values rather than sheer volume growth alone.

Export values more than doubled while volumes rose more modestly

EU export value increased from €219.6 million in 2015 to €495.0 million in 2025, a rise of 125.4%. Over the same period, exported tonnage grew by 44.8%, from 80,697 tonnes to 116,838 tonnes. The general overview shows that the peak tonnage reached 132,396 tonnes in 2019, after which volumes settled around 112,000–117,000 tonnes. This indicates that the value surge was significantly amplified by price increases.

Unit prices climbed steadily, especially after 2020

The average export price per tonne rose from €2,721 in 2015 to €4,236 in 2025, an increase of 55.7%. On a per-head basis, the supplementary price rose from €110 to €180 (+63.4%). The steepest price gains occurred in 2020–2022, coinciding with global supply-chain disruptions and tighter livestock supply.

Source: General Overview – exports

Live sheep dominate the product mix

The product segment breakdown confirms that live sheep (010410) represent over 99% of exports by both value and volume. In 2025, sheep exports were valued at €490.9 million (116,339 tonnes), while goat exports contributed only €4.0 million (499 tonnes). Goat export prices were considerably higher per tonne (€8,072 vs. €4,220 for sheep), reflecting niche, higher-value trade.

2. Brexit Reshaped the EU's Import Profile and Trade Balance

The most dramatic structural change in the decade was the emergence of the United Kingdom as the dominant source of EU imports—a direct consequence of the UK's departure from the EU customs union.

EU imports surged from a negligible base

In 2015, EU imports of live sheep and goats stood at just €3.3 million (980 tonnes). By 2025, they had risen to €52.1 million (6,505 tonnes), an increase of 1,481% in value. The general overview – imports shows the inflection point occurred in 2019, when import volumes jumped nearly sevenfold—from 1,329 tonnes in 2018 to 8,964 tonnes in 2019.

The United Kingdom accounts for nearly all imports

The top import partners data reveals that the UK supplied €52.1 million of the EU's €52.1 million total import value in 2025—a virtual monopoly. This represents a 1,488% increase from the UK's €3.3 million share in 2015. Prior to Brexit, UK–EU livestock trade was intra-EU and thus not captured in extra-EU statistics; after January 2021, it appears as external trade.

Source: Top partners by value – imports

Ireland became the principal EU import destination

Among EU Member States, Ireland emerged as the dominant importer, with import values rising from €1.2 million in 2015 to €52.0 million in 2025 (+4,299%). This reflects Ireland's geographic proximity and strong traditional trade links with the UK for live livestock. By contrast, France's imports collapsed from €1.7 million to just €2,426 (−99.9%), and the Netherlands declined by 89.5%.

The trade surplus doubled despite rising imports

The EU's trade surplus in live sheep and goats grew from €216.3 million in 2015 to €442.8 million in 2025 (+104.7%). Although imports grew rapidly in proportional terms, they remained small relative to exports—imports represented only 9.5% of export value in 2025. The EU thus retained a very comfortable net-exporter position throughout the period.

3. Export Destinations Shifted Toward the MENA Region with Greater Diversification

The EU's export geography underwent significant rebalancing, with traditional partners declining and new markets in the Middle East and North Africa rising sharply, accompanied by a notable decrease in market concentration.

MENA countries became the dominant export destinations

The top export partners data shows a dramatic reshuffling:

Source: Top partners by value – exports

Jordan remained the largest single destination throughout the decade, but Algeria, Israel, and Morocco grew from near-zero to become major markets. Libya, formerly the top destination in 2015, saw its share collapse—likely reflecting ongoing political instability.

Romania, Spain, and Portugal led the EU's exporting Member States

The top reporters data highlights the intra-EU distribution of export activity:

Source: Top reporters by value – exports

Romania nearly doubled its exports to become the EU's largest exporter by value in 2025. Portugal's transformation was particularly striking—from virtually zero to €94.7 million, positioning it as the third-largest exporter. This aligns with specialisation data showing Hungary (RSCA: 0.78), Spain (RSCA: 0.68), and France (RSCA: 0.59) as the most specialised EU exporters of this product.

Export market concentration fell sharply

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value fell from 4,624 in 2015 to 1,854 in 2025 (−59.9%), indicating a substantial broadening of the export base across more destination countries. By contrast, import concentration remained extremely high (HHI ~9,981), reflecting the near-total dominance of the UK as a source. The volatility data shows that several of the newer MENA markets exhibited high variability—Algeria (CV: 1.82), Morocco (CV: 1.14), and Saudi Arabia (CV: 0.79)—suggesting that while diversification improved, some of these newer relationships remained volatile.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in live sheep and goats was shaped by three principal dynamics: (1) a strong and sustained export expansion, where rising prices compensated for plateauing volumes to more than double export values; (2) a structural transformation of the import landscape driven by Brexit, which turned the UK from an invisible intra-EU trade partner into the EU's overwhelmingly dominant external supplier, with Ireland as the main entry point; and (3) a significant geographic diversification of exports toward MENA markets—particularly Algeria, Israel, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia—accompanied by a sharp decline in export concentration. Despite the rapid growth in imports, the EU maintained a large and expanding trade surplus of €443 million in 2025, underscoring the bloc's continued strength as a net exporter of live small ruminants. The key risk factors going forward include the volatility of newer MENA trade relationships and the potential for UK–EU trade flows to stabilise or shift further as post-Brexit arrangements mature.