Market evolution: Live poultry (CN 0105) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in live poultry (customs code 0105) with non-EU countries over the 2015–2025 period. The product heading covers live fowls of the species Gallus domesticus, ducks, geese, turkeys and guinea fowls, in both light (≤185 g) and heavy (>185 g) weight categories.

The EU remains a major net exporter of live poultry, sustaining a trade surplus that grew from €262 million in 2015 to €302 million in 2025 (General Overview). However, beneath this aggregate stability, the market underwent profound structural transformation over the decade. Volumes declined while values surged, trade geography was redrawn after Brexit, and unit prices nearly doubled across both exports and imports. The following sections examine these dynamics in detail.

A Market of Rising Values and Declining Volumes

Export value grew while export tonnage fell sharply

The most striking feature of EU live-poultry trade is the divergence between volume and value trends. Over 2015–2025, EU exports to non-EU countries saw their value rise by 38.2%, from €340 million to €470 million, even as tonnage fell by 30.7%, from 18,190 tonnes to 12,609 tonnes. The number of individual animals exported also declined, from 273 million to 213 million head (−21.9%) (General Overview).

The EU is thus shipping fewer animals and fewer tonnes, yet earning substantially more per unit.

Import growth was even more value-driven

EU imports from non-EU countries more than doubled in value, from €77 million to €168 million (+116.8%), while import tonnage barely moved, edging up from 3,692 tonnes to 3,819 tonnes (+3.4%). The number of imported head actually fell by 29.5%, from 24.1 million to 17.0 million. Unit prices therefore carried the entire growth: the average import price per tonne rose by 109.6% (from €20,964 to €43,932), and the price per head surged by 207.5% (from €3.21 to €9.86) (General Overview).

Price inflation was pervasive across sub-products

The price increases were not confined to one segment. Virtually every sub-product experienced sharp price inflation over the decade:

(Sources: Product Segment Breakdown)

The surge in turkey poult and heavy-fowl import prices is particularly striking. These increases likely reflect a combination of sustained cost inflation in feed, energy, and biosecurity, compounded by avian influenza disruptions that tightened breeding-stock supply globally.

Brexit, New Frontiers, and a Redrawn Trade Map

The United Kingdom's role was fundamentally reshaped by Brexit

The most consequential geographic shift in EU live-poultry trade was the departure of the United Kingdom from the single market. In 2015, the UK was by far the EU's largest import origin, supplying €76 million — virtually the entire import value — and was also the EU's second-largest export destination (€32 million). By 2025, UK imports had risen to €161 million in absolute terms but had lost ground in relative terms, while EU exports to the UK collapsed to just €9.3 million (−70.5%) (Top partners by value).

The UK's withdrawal from the EU customs territory introduced sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) checks, export health certificates, and border controls that significantly raised the cost and complexity of cross-Channel live-poultry trade. The sharp fall in EU-to-UK exports — from birds and particularly from France and the Netherlands — is consistent with a diversion away from the now-friction-heavy UK market.

Ukraine emerged as the EU's leading export market

Ukraine became the EU's top export destination for live poultry, overtaking the UK by value. EU exports to Ukraine grew from €46 million in 2015 to €86 million in 2025 (+89.2%), with relatively low volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.13, the lowest among major partners). Ukraine's poultry sector, while domestically competitive, relies on imported breeding stock and day-old chicks, creating sustained demand for EU exports (Volatility & Shocks).

Southern and Eastern EU members became dominant exporters

Among EU Member States, the most dramatic exporter growth came from Spain and Hungary. Spain's exports surged from €20 million to €89 million (+337.7%), while Hungary's grew from €17 million to €77 million (+366.5%). France remained the EU's largest exporter overall, rising from €119 million to €140 million. In contrast, traditional exporters like the Netherlands (€63M → €36M, −42.9%), Germany (€38M → €31M, −18.6%), and Poland (€40M → €30M, −26.0%) saw their positions erode (Top reporters by value).

Hungary and Spain are classified among the EU's most specialised live-poultry exporters, with revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) scores of 0.31 and above-average performance, suggesting a structural competitiveness advantage (Market Structure).

France became the EU's overwhelmingly dominant importer from non-EU sources

On the import side, France's role underwent an extraordinary transformation. France's imports from non-EU countries surged from €7.3 million in 2015 to €101.3 million in 2025 — a twelvefold increase (+1,281%). By 2025, France alone accounted for roughly 60% of all EU live-poultry imports from outside the bloc. Meanwhile, Germany — historically the largest EU importer — saw its imports collapse from €20.6 million to €4.1 million (−80.2%), and Poland's fell from €7.2 million to €0.3 million (−96.4%) (Top reporters by value).

France's surge is likely tied to its large and vertically integrated poultry sector, which sources breeding stock and grandparent lines from the UK (and increasingly from the US, Canada, and Brazil). The UK's share of French imports grew accordingly, reflecting the pre-Brexit and post-Brexit reorganisation of supply chains.

Export volatility and price shocks affected Eastern European partners

Several price shocks were detected in EU exports to Eastern European partners between 2021 and 2023. The most notable events included:

(Source: Volatility & Shocks)

These shocks are consistent with supply disruptions linked to avian influenza outbreaks and, in the case of Russia and Belarus, possible geopolitical trade disruptions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Canadian imports into the EU also showed extreme volatility (CV = 1.36), suggesting an unreliable supply pipeline.

The Dominance of Day-Old Chicks and the Breeding-Stock Economy

Day-old chicks dominate trade by volume; heavier birds dominate by import value

The product breakdown reveals that the EU's live-poultry trade is overwhelmingly a trade in young birds — primarily day-old chicks (CN 010511: fowls ≤185 g) and, to a lesser extent, turkey poults (CN 010512). In 2025, the 010511 sub-product accounted for 9,188 tonnes (72.9%) of export tonnage and 200 million head (93.8%) of exported animals (Product Segment Breakdown).

By contrast, imports tell a different story by value. Heavy fowls (CN 010594) represented the largest import by tonnage (2,190 t, or 57.3% of import tonnage in 2025), but their unit price was remarkably low (€1,276/t), indicating imports of lower-value stock. The premium day-old chick segment (CN 010511) accounted for 1,335 tonnes of imports but €138 million in value — representing 82.3% of total import value at a unit price of €103,602/t (Product Segment Breakdown).

The price premium for chicks per head nearly tripled on the import side

When measured per individual animal (supplementary unit), the price trends confirm the premiumisation of the trade:

(Source: Product Segment Breakdown)

The EU's export trade is fundamentally a day-old-chick economy: hundreds of millions of chicks leave the EU each year at moderate per-head prices (around €2), for fattening and laying abroad. The import side, however, features much higher per-head prices, particularly for chicks (€10/head in 2025) and turkey poults (€14/head), reflecting the import of high-value grandparent and parent breeding stock whose genetic value far exceeds that of commercial birds.

Turkey poult imports contracted in volume but surged in price

A particularly noteworthy dynamic is the evolution of turkey poult imports (CN 010512). The number of turkey poults imported into the EU fell from 2.7 million head in 2015 to 1.9 million head in 2025 (−29.4%), yet the total value rose from €15.1 million to €26.0 million (+71.4%). The price per head nearly tripled, from €5.70 to €13.82. The price per tonne followed a similar trajectory, from €48,305 to €219,320. This suggests a concentration of imports into fewer, higher-value breeding lines — a consolidation consistent with the global trend towards fewer, more genetically advanced turkey-breeding companies (Product Segment Breakdown).

Conclusion

The EU live-poultry market over 2015–2025 was defined by three interrelated dynamics: substantial price inflation that lifted values while volumes contracted, a geographic reorientation driven principally by Brexit, and a structural concentration on high-value breeding-stock trade rather than commodity poultry.

Despite lower tonnage, the EU sustained and grew its trade surplus (€262M → €302M), reflecting the market's shift towards higher-value-added segments. The loss of the UK as a seamless export destination was offset partly by the growth of Ukraine, the Balkans, and West Africa as export markets, and by the emergence of Spain and Hungary as major EU exporters alongside the long-dominant French sector.

The concentration of trade in day-old chicks and breeding stock — products where the EU holds strong genetic and biosecurity advantages — underpins the market's resilience. As global poultry demand continues to grow, and as avian influenza and biosecurity requirements raise barriers to entry, the EU's position as a supplier of premium genetics and hatchery-ready chicks is likely to remain a defining feature of this trade for years to come.