Market evolution: Liquefied propane (CN 27111297) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the trade dynamics of liquefied propane with a purity of 90% or less (CN 27111297) within the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The EU is a net importer of this product, with a trade deficit that ranged from –€225 million to –€666 million during the period analysed. Over the decade, EU imports contracted dramatically — in volume terms by 68.6% and in value by 55.6% — while unit prices rose significantly. These headline figures, however, mask far deeper structural transformations in the EU's supply landscape, driven primarily by geopolitical upheaval and sanctions policy. The following sections unpack the most significant dynamics observed in the data.
I. The collapse of Russia and the emergence of the United States as the EU's dominant supplier
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the near-total displacement of Russia as a supplier of liquefied propane to the EU, and the concurrent surge of the United States. This section documents this structural shift and its implications for supply concentration.
Russia's dominance and abrupt exit
In 2015, the Russian Federation was by far the EU's largest supplier of liquefied propane, accounting for €314.3 million in imports — nearly 46% of total EU import value. By 2025, Russian imports had fallen to a mere €32,798, representing a reduction of essentially 100%. This collapse, concentrated in the 2022–2023 period, coincides directly with the EU's sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The volatility data shows that Russian supply was already volatile (coefficient of variation of 1.32), but it was the sanctions-driven cut-off rather than market volatility that ended this trade relationship.
The United States as replacement supplier
The void left by Russia was filled almost entirely by the United States. US exports of liquefied propane to the EU surged from €30.5 million in 2015 to €267.9 million in 2025 — an increase of 779.4%. At its peak, US imports reached €346.3 million, exceeding even the pre-crisis Russian volumes in absolute terms. This growth reflects the broader expansion of US liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports driven by the shale gas revolution, combined with the EU's urgent need to replace Russian supply. The US coefficient of variation (0.55) was the lowest among all major import partners, suggesting a relatively stable supply relationship.
Decline of other traditional suppliers
The contraction was not limited to Russia. Several other traditional suppliers saw their EU trade evaporate:
| Supplier | 2015 Value (€) | 2025 Value (€) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 118,836,051 | 461 | –100.0% |
| Algeria | 71,423,267 | 5,676,811 | –92.1% |
| United Kingdom | 56,923,118 | 7,300,814 | –87.2% |
| Kazakhstan | 30,810,952 | 5,156,085 | –83.3% |
| Belarus | 31,492,782 | 1,668,630 | –94.7% |
Norway and the UK — which together contributed €176 million in 2015 — had effectively exited this market by 2025. Belarus, like Russia, was likely affected by sanctions. Algeria and Kazakhstan, while not reaching zero, saw their trade volumes shrink by 83–92%, suggesting that the EU's overall demand for this particular propane grade declined substantially alongside the supplier restructuring.
II. A shrinking market with rising prices
While the geopolitical story dominates the supply side, the data also reveals a significant contraction in the overall volume of trade, accompanied by a marked increase in unit prices. This section examines these countervailing trends and their implications for EU importers.
Dramatic volume contraction
EU imports of liquefied propane fell from 2,013,267 tonnes in 2015 to 632,723 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 68.6%. The minimum recorded volume was 477,495 tonnes (reached during the transition period), while the maximum was 2,115,602 tonnes. This contraction far exceeds what would be expected from simple demand fluctuations, and likely reflects a combination of factors: the disruption of supply from sanctioned countries, a possible shift toward higher-purity propane grades (CN 27111211 or 27111219), and broader EU decarbonisation efforts that reduce fossil fuel consumption.
Price dynamics: from cheap supply to premium pricing
Unit import prices rose from €339 per tonne in 2015 to €478 per tonne in 2025, an increase of 41.3%. The price trajectory was not linear: a low of €272 per tonne was reached around 2020, likely reflecting the demand collapse during the COVID-19 pandemic, before rising sharply to a peak of €685 per tonne during the 2022 energy crisis. Export prices followed a similar pattern, rising from €366 to €597 per tonne (+63.3%), with a peak of €731 per tonne.
| Metric | 2015 | Minimum | Maximum | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import price (€/t) | 338.51 | 272.29 | 684.85 | 478.46 | +41.3% |
| Export price (€/t) | 365.60 | 365.60 | 730.63 | 597.00 | +63.3% |
The data shows a price shock in 2021 affecting Russian imports, with an abnormality score of 13.1 and a price shift of +48.5%, accounting for 23.6% of total import value — foreshadowing the supply disruption that would follow.
Improved trade balance amid declining volumes
Despite the collapse in import volumes, the EU's trade deficit in this product actually improved substantially, from –€666.3 million in 2015 to –290.7 million in 2025 (a 56.4% improvement). This is a direct consequence of the asymmetric decline: while import volumes fell by 68.6%, export volumes fell by only 51.5%, and the ratio of export to import unit prices improved. The narrowing deficit, however, should be read as a sign of a shrinking market rather than improved competitiveness.
III. Reconfigured intra-EU geography and extreme supplier concentration
The trade restructuring has had profound consequences for both the geographic distribution of EU member states' import activity and the degree of concentration in the supplier base. This section examines how these structural features evolved and what they reveal about the resilience of the EU's propane supply chain.
The rise of Spain and the decline of Central European importers
Spain emerged as the EU's dominant importer of liquefied propane, more than doubling its share from €123.6 million (2015) to €258.0 million (2025), an increase of 108.7%. Spain now accounts for a disproportionate share of EU imports and shows the highest specialisation index among EU members (RSCA of 0.77, specialisation data).
By contrast, several Central and Eastern European importers experienced near-total collapse:
| EU Member State | 2015 Value (€) | 2025 Value (€) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 111,543,430 | 506 | –100.0% |
| Poland | 261,270,173 | 2,244,184 | –99.1% |
| Bulgaria | 48,076,052 | 3,405,013 | –92.9% |
| Ireland | 15,305,209 | 2,014,597 | –86.8% |
| Portugal | 29,027,423 | 2,658,098 | –90.8% |
Poland's import decline — from €261 million to just over €2 million — is particularly striking. As a country geographically proximate to Russia and historically reliant on Russian pipeline and LPG supply, Poland's propane trade was likely among the most directly affected by the sanctions regime. Belgium's complete disappearance from the import data is equally notable, given it was a major hub in 2015.
Extreme concentration of import supply
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by partner country rose from 2,677 in 2015 to 7,908 in 2025 — an increase of 195.4%. An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered indicative of a highly concentrated market; at nearly 8,000, the current level reflects an extreme dependence on a single supplier — the United States. By volume, the concentration is even more pronounced, with the HHI rising from 2,790 to 8,062.
This represents a significant shift from a relatively diversified import base (with Russia, Norway, Algeria, the UK, and others each holding meaningful shares) to one dominated by a single Atlantic supplier. While the US has proven a reliable partner, this concentration introduces new strategic risks: any disruption to US LPG exports — whether from hurricane damage to Gulf Coast infrastructure, export policy changes, or logistical bottlenecks — would now have an outsized impact on EU supply.
Export reorientation toward Eastern Europe and the Southern Neighbourhood
On the export side, EU re-exports of liquefied propane were redirected significantly. Exports to the United Kingdom collapsed from €5.1 million to €38,000 (–99.3%), likely reflecting Brexit-related trade friction and the UK's own supply diversification. Conversely, Ukraine emerged as the EU's largest export destination, surging from €27,000 in 2015 to €5.95 million in 2025 — an increase of 22,058%. This reflects Ukraine's wartime energy needs and the EU's solidarity-driven supply arrangements. Exports to Moldova (+32.1%) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (+391.0%) also grew, while traditional Balkan destinations such as Serbia (–72.9%) and North Macedonia (–95.4%) declined.
The export volatility data reveals that several of these newer export relationships are highly volatile: Ukraine's coefficient of variation stands at 1.40, and Norway (as an export destination) at 3.17, suggesting these are opportunistic or crisis-driven flows rather than stable commercial relationships.
Conclusion
The EU's trade in liquefied propane (CN 27111297) has undergone a fundamental transformation over the 2015–2025 period. What was once a relatively diversified import market anchored by Russian supply has become a smaller, more expensive, and far more concentrated trade flow dominated by the United States. The key driver of this transformation was the geopolitical rupture following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions regime, which effectively severed the EU's largest propane supply relationship overnight.
The consequences are visible across every dimension of the data: import volumes fell by 68.6%, unit prices rose by 41.3%, supplier concentration (HHI) nearly tripled, and the intra-EU geography of imports was reshuffled, with Spain rising to dominance while Poland and Belgium virtually disappeared. On the export side, the EU redirected flows toward Ukraine and other Eastern European neighbours, though these relationships remain volatile.
Looking forward, the extreme concentration of imports on a single supplier (the US, accounting for an HHI of nearly 8,000) represents a strategic vulnerability for the EU. While the trade deficit has narrowed — from €666 million to €291 million — this improvement reflects market shrinkage rather than structural strengthening. The EU's propane trade in 2025 is smaller, pricier, and more fragile than it was a decade ago.