Market evolution: Ivory and tortoiseshell (CN 0507) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in products classified under customs heading 0507 — encompassing ivory, tortoiseshell, whalebone, horns, antlers, hooves, nails, claws and beaks, whether unworked or simply prepared, along with their powder and waste — over the period 2015–2025. The product group sits at the intersection of traditional craft materials and an increasingly stringent regulatory environment governing wildlife trade. The data reveals a market profoundly reshaped over the decade: the EU's once-substantial trade surplus has narrowed dramatically, driven by a collapse in export unit values, a near-total cessation of ivory re-exports, and a fundamental geographic reorientation of trade flows. At the same time, import volumes have remained remarkably stable, and domestic EU production has expanded substantially. Understanding these dynamics requires attention not only to aggregate trade figures but also to the product-level composition (the distinction between ivory sub-heading 050710 and all other products under 050790) and to the shifting partner geography that underlies the headline numbers.

The Erosion of the EU's Trade Surplus: Stable Volumes, Plummeting Values

Export values fell by 58 % while volumes held steady

The most striking feature of the decade is the divergence between EU export volumes and export values. Over the full period, export quantity rose modestly from 1,645 tonnes in 2015 to 1,744 tonnes in 2025 (General Overview). Yet export value fell from €40.1 million to €16.7 million, a decline of 58.4 %. The explanation lies almost entirely in the collapse of export unit prices, which dropped from €24,365 per tonne to just €9,565 per tonne (−60.7 %). In other words, the EU was shipping roughly the same physical weight of goods abroad, but receiving far less revenue for them.

The trade balance narrowed from €30 million to under €4 million

This erosion in export value, combined with a simultaneous 26.1 % rise in import value (from €10.1 million to €12.8 million), caused the EU's trade surplus in this product group to shrink from €30.0 million in 2015 to just €3.9 million in 2025 — a decline of 86.9 %. Import volumes remained essentially flat (from 16,585 tonnes to 16,130 tonnes, −2.7 %), so the increase in import value was driven entirely by rising unit prices, which climbed from €610/t to €791/t (+29.6 %). The EU thus found itself paying more per tonne for its imports while receiving dramatically less per tonne for its exports.

The EU shifted from net importer to near-autarky

The net import reliance indicator captures this transformation in a single metric. In 2015 the EU's net import reliance stood at +24.6 %, meaning imports exceeded exports in value and the bloc was a net importer. By 2025 the indicator had turned negative (−6.8 %), indicating that the EU had become a slight net exporter in value terms — albeit a much smaller one than the headline balance might have suggested in earlier years. Meanwhile, export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 34.5 % to 49.5 %, suggesting that EU producers became more outward-oriented even as the value captured from exports diminished.

The Ivory Ban and the Near-Total Collapse of Sub-Heading 050710

Ivory exports fell from €4.8 million to essentially zero

The product-level breakdown reveals that the dramatic decline in export values was overwhelmingly concentrated in one sub-heading: 050710, covering unworked or simply prepared ivory, its powder and waste. In 2015, the EU exported 10.0 tonnes of ivory worth €4.8 million — a unit price of approximately €480,000 per tonne. By 2021, ivory exports had fallen to just 0.07 tonnes worth €550, and while small sporadic shipments continued thereafter (0.9 tonnes / €5,416 in 2025), the trade had effectively collapsed (Product Segment Breakdown).

This trajectory aligns with the progressive tightening of the EU regulatory framework. The European Union adopted Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/189, effective from 2021, which banned commercial exports of raw and worked ivory, with narrow exceptions. The data shows that the decline actually preceded the formal ban: ivory export volumes dropped sharply from 10.0 tonnes in 2015 to 5.1 tonnes in 2016 and continued to fall, suggesting anticipatory behaviour by traders and growing restrictions in destination markets (notably Hong Kong and mainland China).

Non-ivory products (050790) now dominate entirely

With the virtual disappearance of ivory from the export mix, sub-heading 050790 — covering tortoiseshell, whalebone, horns, antlers, hooves, nails, claws and beaks — now accounts for over 99.9 % of EU export value in this product group. In 2025, 050790 exports stood at 1,743 tonnes worth €16.7 million, a unit price of €9,567/t. This is far below the combined 2015 average because ivory's extraordinarily high unit price (two orders of magnitude above non-ivory products) has been removed from the mix.

Ivory imports tell a different story

Notably, EU ivory imports did not follow the same trajectory as exports. While import volumes remained tiny (3–10 tonnes per year), they persisted throughout the period, reaching 3.3 tonnes worth €258,000 in 2025. The unit price of imported ivory fluctuated wildly — from €48,000/t to over €1.3 million/t — reflecting the extremely thin and irregular nature of this trade, likely involving pre-ban stockpiles, museum specimens, or legally exempted transactions.

Geographic Reorientation: From Asia to the Anglosphere and Continental Europe

Hong Kong and Taiwan ceased to be significant export markets

The most dramatic geographic shift occurred on the export side. In 2015, the EU's two largest export destinations for heading 0507 were Hong Kong (€20.9 million) and Taiwan (€12.5 million), together accounting for the vast majority of export value. These were overwhelmingly ivory destinations. By 2025, exports to Hong Kong had collapsed to €163,000 (−99.2 %) and those to Taiwan to €2.8 million (−77.8 %). The volatility data confirms the extreme instability of these flows, with Hong Kong's export coefficient of variation reaching 1.61 — indicating year-to-year swings far exceeding the mean.

The United States, United Kingdom, and Canada emerged as top destinations

As Asian ivory markets contracted, the EU's export geography pivoted sharply toward Western markets. Exports to the United States surged from €358,000 in 2015 to €5.0 million in 2025 (+1,297 %), making the US the largest single destination. Exports to the United Kingdom rose from €267,000 to €2.1 million (+669 %), and those to Canada from €296,000 to €1.7 million (+486 %). Switzerland also grew from €973,000 to €1.8 million (+87.5 %). These markets are predominantly buyers of non-ivory products (050790) — horns, antlers, and related materials used in traditional medicine, craft, and decorative industries. The shock detection identified a notable price shock in UK-bound exports centred on 2017, with an abnormality score of 128.7 and a price shift of +122.5 %, suggesting a sudden reorientation of trade flows through or to the UK market at that time.

Export concentration fell dramatically

Consistent with this geographic diversification, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration by value fell from 3,826 in 2015 to 1,743 in 2025 (−54.4 %). In 2015, the market was highly concentrated: Hong Kong alone accounted for over half of export value. By 2025, exports were spread across multiple Western markets, none commanding a dominant share. This diversification reduced the EU's vulnerability to policy changes in any single destination country.

Import sourcing became more concentrated

The import side moved in the opposite direction. The import HHI rose from 1,247 to 1,914 (+53.5 %), indicating growing concentration. India and Brazil consolidated their positions as the EU's primary suppliers: Indian imports grew from €2.4 million to €4.0 million (+64.2 %) and Brazilian imports from €2.0 million to €3.4 million (+70.0 %). Meanwhile, several smaller suppliers saw declines — imports from Egypt fell by 46.6 %, from Pakistan by 34.7 %, and Spain's imports dropped by 99.7 %. This concentration raises questions about supply-chain resilience, particularly given that India and Brazil are major sources of buffalo horn and cattle horn, products increasingly sought by the traditional medicine and artisanal craft sectors.

EU domestic production expanded substantially

Alongside these trade shifts, EU domestic production of products in this category grew significantly — by 76.5 % in volume (from 1.87 billion kg to 3.30 billion kg) and 194.1 % in value (from €204 million to €600 million). Hungary, Poland, and Austria emerged as the most specialised EU producers, with Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores of 0.76, 0.48, and 0.45 respectively. This production growth — likely driven by expanding cattle and buffalo farming generating horn, bone, and hoof by-products — provides a domestic supply base that partly explains the EU's shift toward net exporter status despite falling export unit values.

Conclusion

The EU trade in heading 0507 products over 2015–2025 tells a story of regulatory impact, product-mix transformation, and geographic realignment. The near-complete disappearance of ivory from the EU's export portfolio — driven by the progressive tightening of international and EU regulations — removed the highest-value component from the trade, causing export unit prices to fall by 61 % even as physical volumes held steady. The resulting 58 % decline in export value, coupled with a 26 % rise in import costs, eroded the EU's trade surplus by 87 %. Geographically, the trade pivoted dramatically: from Asian ivory markets (Hong Kong, Taiwan) that have all but vanished, toward Western destinations (the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada) that now absorb the bulk of non-ivory product exports. Import sourcing, meanwhile, concentrated around India and Brazil, raising potential supply-chain concerns. Underlying these trade shifts is a robust expansion of EU domestic production, which grew by 76 % in volume over the decade. The market that emerges in 2025 is fundamentally different from that of 2015: lower in value, more diversified geographically on the export side, more concentrated on the import side, and overwhelmingly dominated by non-ivory animal-origin products rather than the once-prized commodity that lent the heading its name.