Market evolution: Bones and horn-cores (CN 0506) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in products classified under customs code 0506 — Bones and horn-cores and their powder and waste, unworked, defatted, simply prepared, treated with acid or degelatinised (excl. cut to shape) — over the period 2015–2025. The heading covers two sub-categories: ossein and bones treated with acid (050610) and other unworked or simply prepared bones and horn-cores (050690). These products serve as raw materials for gelatine production, fertiliser manufacturing, and various industrial applications.

Over the decade, the EU's trade in CN 0506 underwent a profound contraction on both the export and import sides, with trade values and volumes falling by roughly two-thirds. At the same time, domestic EU production surged substantially, pointing to a structural reorientation of the market. This report is organised around three main dynamics that emerge from the data.

1. A Decade of Contraction: EU Trade Halved by Value and Volume

Export values collapsed by over 70 %

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the sheer magnitude of decline in EU exports. Export value fell from €111.4 million in 2015 to €32.1 million in 2025, a drop of 71.2 %. Export volumes fell at an almost identical pace — from 203,882 tonnes to 59,083 tonnes (−71.0 %) — indicating that the decline was overwhelmingly quantity-driven rather than price-driven. Indeed, average export unit values remained broadly stable, moving from €547/t to €543/t over the period.

Imports declined in parallel, but less steeply

EU imports also contracted, though the decline in volumes (−39.5 %, from 96,214 t to 58,250 t) was less severe than on the export side. Import values fell more sharply (−67.2 %, from €19.6 M to €6.4 M) because unit prices dropped significantly — from €204/t to €111/t (−45.8 %). This price erosion on the import side contrasts with stable export prices and suggests that EU buyers gained bargaining power or shifted to lower-cost suppliers over the decade.

The trade surplus narrowed but persisted

The EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout the entire period, reflecting its role as a net exporter of these products. The surplus fell from €91.8 M in 2015 to €25.6 M in 2025 (−72.1 %), mirroring the contraction in overall trade volumes. The net import reliance metric shifted from +24.6 % to −6.8 %, confirming that the EU became structurally more self-sufficient in this product category over the decade.

2. A Reconfigured Geographic Map: Asian Markets Collapse, India Emerges

Traditional Asian export markets evaporated

The decline in EU exports by partner country was not evenly distributed geographically. Several major Asian destination markets that were significant buyers in 2015 had virtually disappeared by 2025:

The collapse in exports to China and Viet Nam — which together accounted for over €56 M in 2015 — was the single largest driver of the overall export decline. This likely reflects a combination of factors: increased domestic processing capacity in Asia, tightening import regulations (e.g., China's stricter controls on animal-origin products post-African Swine Fever), and shifting global supply chains.

India transformed from marginal supplier to top export destination

Against this backdrop of retreating Asian demand, one partner stands out as a dramatic exception. EU exports to India surged from just €0.3 M in 2015 to €9.4 M in 2025 — an extraordinary increase of 2,912 %. By 2025, India had become the EU's single largest export market for CN 0506, overtaking the United Kingdom. This may be linked to India's growing gelatine and pharmaceutical industries, which require bone-derived raw materials (particularly ossein, CN 050610).

Import partners also shifted markedly

On the import side, the EU's historically largest supplier, India (€8.6 M in 2015), saw its shipments to the EU collapse by 84.9 % to €1.3 M. The United States (−80.7 %) and Argentina (−97.2 %) similarly lost ground. Switzerland remained a relatively stable supplier (declining from €4.1 M to €2.0 M), while the United Kingdom held steady at around €1.3 M. The general decline in import values, combined with sharply lower unit prices, suggests that the EU's need for externally sourced bone material diminished over the period.

Trade concentration remained moderate

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value declined from 3,034 to 2,053 (−32.3 %), indicating that import sourcing became less concentrated — in other words, more diversified. Export concentration by value rose only slightly (from 2,008 to 2,136, +6.3 %), remaining in the moderate range. However, the volume-based HHI for exports increased more noticeably (from 2,014 to 2,262), reflecting the growing dominance of fewer but larger-volume export relationships, notably with India.

Notable volatility and supply shocks

The volatility analysis reveals that several trade relationships were highly unstable. The coefficient of variation for EU exports to India reached 2.00 — the highest among all major partners — reflecting the explosive and non-linear growth trajectory. On the import side, Canada (CV = 2.14) and Argentina (CV = 1.47) showed the greatest instability.

Three significant shocks were identified:

1. Bangladesh supply shock (2020): EU exports to Bangladesh collapsed by 99.5 %, likely linked to the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting shipping and processing.
2. UK import price shock (2022): Import prices from the United Kingdom spiked by 270.4 %, coinciding with post-Brexit trade adjustment pressures and energy cost increases.
3. Singapore price shock (2023): Export prices to Singapore surged by 194.7 %, possibly reflecting a one-off high-value transaction or a shift toward premium-grade material.

3. EU Production Surged While Trade Retreated — A Self-Sufficiency Story

Domestic production roughly doubled in volume and tripled in value

Perhaps the most significant structural development underpinning the trade decline is the growth in EU domestic production. Production quantity rose from 1.87 billion kg in 2015 to 3.30 billion kg in 2025 (+76.5 %), while production value increased even more sharply — from €204 M to €600 M (+194.1 %). This implies that EU producers were not only processing more material but also commanding significantly higher unit values over time, possibly reflecting a shift toward higher-grade or more processed outputs.

The EU's export propensity increased even as absolute exports fell

A seemingly paradoxical finding is that the EU's export propensity — the share of production that is exported — rose from 34.5 % to 49.5 % (+43.2 %) over the period, even though absolute export volumes fell dramatically. This is explained by the fact that production grew even faster than exports declined. In other words, the EU was producing substantially more bone material, but an increasing share of that growing output was being channelled to international markets. At the same time, trade intensity also rose modestly (from 60.9 % to 64.7 %), confirming that the EU market became more internationally oriented in relative terms.

Product sub-segments reveal divergent dynamics

The breakdown between the two sub-headings reveals that the decline in trade was concentrated almost entirely in CN 050690 (basic bones and horn-cores):

While the volume decline was proportionally similar across both sub-headings, their price trajectories diverged sharply. Export unit prices for 050690 fluctuated between €427/t and €757/t, ending at €464/t — broadly flat. By contrast, 050610 unit values climbed from €856/t in 2015 to €1,079/t in 2025, reflecting the higher-value, more processed nature of ossein and acid-treated bones. The import side showed even more dramatic price divergence: 050610 import prices soared from €763/t to €2,660/t (+249 %), while 050690 import prices fell from €190/t to €100/t (−47 %). This widening price gap underscores a growing value differentiation between the two sub-categories.

Member-state specialisation and shifting export geography within the EU

The specialisation analysis for 2025 identifies Ireland (RSCA = 0.54) and Spain (RSCA = 0.49) as the most specialised EU member states in CN 0506 exports, with Austria, Latvia, and Malta also showing notable specialisation. At the other end of the spectrum, Slovenia, Croatia, Bulgaria, Luxembourg, and Finland show very low specialisation, meaning CN 0506 is marginal in their overall export profiles.

Within the EU, the export geography shifted significantly. The traditional export powerhouses experienced severe declines:

Meanwhile, several member states expanded their export activity substantially:

This redistribution suggests a consolidation and geographic reorientation of the EU's export base, with newer entrants partly compensating for the retreat of the former dominant players.

Conclusion

The EU market for bones and horn-cores (CN 0506) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Trade volumes and values contracted by approximately 70 % on the export side and 40–67 % on the import side, driven primarily by the collapse of traditional Asian demand — especially from China, Viet Nam, and Thailand. Against this backdrop, EU domestic production nearly doubled in volume and nearly tripled in value, enabling the bloc to maintain a trade surplus and increasing self-sufficiency.

The geographic centre of gravity of EU exports shifted decisively toward India, which emerged from near-irrelevance to become the largest single export market. Within the EU, the export base also redistributed away from the Netherlands, Spain, and Belgium toward France, Poland, and Ireland. Price dynamics diverged between the two sub-segments: basic bones (050690) saw stable-to-declining prices, while the more processed ossein category (050610) commanded increasingly premium prices — both on the export and import sides.

Overall, the data paints a picture of a market that is smaller in traded volume but increasingly domestic in orientation, more geographically concentrated in its remaining trade relationships, and exhibiting a growing value gap between basic and processed bone products.