Market evolution: Animal products for pharmaceuticals (CN 0510) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the EU's external trade in products covered by CN 0510 — a category encompassing ambergris, castoreum, civet and musk, cantharides, bile, and glands and other animal products used in pharmaceutical preparation. Over the period 2015–2025, this niche but strategically important market has undergone a striking transformation. Export values have more than quadrupled, import prices have more than quadrupled, and the EU has shifted from being a net importer to a near-balanced or even net-exporting position. These changes have unfolded against a backdrop of rising global demand for pharmaceutical-grade animal products, tighter supply conditions, and significant reshuffling of both EU member-state roles and third-country partnerships.
1. A Market Reshaped by Surging Unit Values
The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic increase in unit values — on both the import and export sides. Prices have risen far more steeply than physical volumes, fundamentally altering the economics of CN 0510 trade.
1.1 Import prices more than quadrupled while volumes fell sharply
EU imports of CN 0510 products tell a counterintuitive story: the value of imports rose by 153.3% (from €11.7 million to €29.7 million) while the volume imported actually fell by 38.3% (from 7,063 tonnes to 4,357 tonnes). The reconciling factor is a 310.8% surge in unit prices, which climbed from roughly €1,657/t in 2015 to €6,808/t by 2025.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€M) | 11.7 | 29.7 | +153.3% |
| Import quantity (t) | 7,063 | 4,357 | −38.3% |
| Import price (€/t) | 1,657 | 6,808 | +310.8% |
This pattern suggests that global supply of pharmaceutical-grade animal products has tightened considerably, whether due to stricter sourcing regulations, declining animal populations, or increased competition from non-EU buyers. The EU is importing less material but paying substantially more for it.
1.2 Export prices doubled and drove a quadrupling of export value
On the export side, the EU saw its export value rise by 337.0% — from €4.5 million to €19.7 million. Unlike imports, export volumes also grew robustly (+93.5%, from 1,230 to 2,379 tonnes), but again the dominant driver was price: export unit values rose by 124.0%, from €3,666/t to €8,212/t.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 4.5 | 19.7 | +337.0% |
| Export quantity (t) | 1,230 | 2,379 | +93.5% |
| Export price (€/t) | 3,666 | 8,212 | +124.0% |
Notably, EU export prices in 2025 (€8,212/t) have surpassed import prices (€6,808/t), suggesting the EU is exporting higher-value, more processed pharmaceutical-grade animal products — a sign of upward positioning in the value chain.
1.3 The price premium shift reflects EU value-chain upgrading
In 2015, EU imports were priced at roughly €1,657/t while exports commanded €3,666/t — a ratio of about 2.2:1. By 2025, this had compressed to 1.2:1 (€8,212/t exports vs. €6,808/t imports), meaning import prices have risen faster in relative terms. However, the EU has maintained a consistent export price premium throughout the period, consistent with the hypothesis that EU firms specialise in higher-purity or more processed forms of these animal-derived pharmaceutical inputs, commanding a price advantage over raw or semi-processed imports.
2. From Net Importer to Near-Self-Sufficiency
One of the most consequential structural shifts in the CN 0510 market is the EU's transition from clear import dependence to a position of approximate trade balance or even mild net export surplus. This transformation has been driven by a surge in export capacity — particularly from a handful of EU member states — while import volumes contracted.
2.1 Net import reliance reversed sign over the decade
The EU's net import reliance shifted from +24.6% in 2015 to −6.8% in 2025, meaning the EU moved from importing roughly a quarter more than it exported (in value terms) to a slight net exporter position. The swing was even more pronounced at its most extreme: the measure reached a low of −24.9% at one point and a high of +24.6%, indicating considerable year-to-year volatility in the balance.
This reversal is corroborated by the trade balance itself, which moved from −€7.2 million in 2015 to −€9.9 million in 2025, but with a maximum surplus of €0.4 million recorded at some point in the period — a rare moment of EU trade surplus in this product category. The overall trade balance remains in deficit in 2025, but this masks the value-chain dynamics: in volume terms, the EU is now a significant exporter.
2.2 Export propensity rose sharply, signalling EU competitive gains
The EU's export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — increased from 34.5% to 49.5%, a rise of 43.2%. This is the highest-salience vulnerability metric in the dataset. Meanwhile, trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) remained relatively stable at around 60–65%.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net import reliance (%) | +24.6 | −6.8 | −127.5% |
| Export propensity (%) | 34.5 | 49.5 | +43.2% |
| Trade intensity (%) | 60.9 | 64.7 | +6.3% |
The rising export propensity, combined with the net import reliance swinging negative, indicates that EU producers have not only scaled up output but have also become significantly more outward-facing. This is consistent with EU production volumes growing by 76.5% (from 1.87 billion kg to 3.3 billion kg) and production values by 194.1% (from €204 million to €600 million).
2.3 A small number of EU members drove the export surge
The export expansion was not evenly distributed. According to the top EU exporters data, Italy (from €2.2M to €8.1M, +275.6%) and Spain (from €0.3M to €6.0M, +1,603%) were the largest contributors. Denmark and Ireland, starting from negligible bases, achieved spectacular growth rates of over 100,000%, though their absolute values remained more modest (€1.5M and €0.8M respectively in 2025).
On the import side, Germany became the dominant EU importer, growing from €3.4M to €13.3M (+286.8%), while Denmark — previously the largest importer at €3.3M — saw its imports collapse to just €22,000 (−99.3%). This suggests a major reconfiguration of sourcing and processing within the EU, with Germany consolidating its role as the primary entry point and Denmark shifting from an import hub to an export player.
3. Concentration, Volatility, and Shifting Partnership Dynamics
The evolving trade structure has been accompanied by notable changes in partner concentration, significant volatility in bilateral trade flows, and at least one documented supply shock. These dynamics carry important implications for the EU's supply-chain resilience in a product category with direct pharmaceutical relevance.
3.1 Import sources diversified modestly while export destinations diversified significantly
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose by 15.3% (from 3,454 to 3,984), indicating slightly more concentration among import partners — a modestly concerning trend for supply diversification. By contrast, the export HHI fell by 35.6% (from 4,528 to 2,917), meaning EU export markets have become meaningfully more diversified, reducing dependence on any single destination.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import HHI (value) | 3,454 | 3,984 | +15.3% |
| Export HHI (value) | 4,528 | 2,917 | −35.6% |
3.2 The United States emerged as the dominant import partner while export ties strengthened with Canada, Brazil, and Hong Kong
Among import partners, the United States grew from €6.2M to €17.7M (+184.7%), becoming by far the largest source. Chile, Brazil, and the United Kingdom also saw significant growth in export value to the EU. Notably, the UK — a major partner — saw extreme volatility in its trade with the EU (coefficient of variation of 1.41 for imports), likely reflecting the disruptions associated with Brexit.
On the export side, Canada grew from €0.4M to €3.5M (+798.7%), while Brazil expanded from €2.8M to €7.9M (+185.0%). The most dramatic growth was in exports to Hong Kong (from €4,600 to €2.0M) and the United States (from €312 to €5.9M), the latter reflecting a near-complete reorientation of the bilateral trade flow in this product.
3.3 High volatility in several key partnerships and a documented UK import shock
The volatility analysis reveals that several key bilateral trade relationships are highly unstable. On the import side, New Zealand (CV 1.78), Mexico (CV 1.72), and Canada (CV 1.84) show very high year-to-year variability. On the export side, New Zealand (CV 2.53) and Hong Kong (CV 2.28) are the most volatile — unsurprising given their very low starting points and dramatic growth trajectories.
A specific supply shock event was detected in EU imports from the United Kingdom in 2017, classified as a price shock with an abnormality score of 4.4 and a 134.6% price shift, accounting for 15.6% of import value. This event is consistent with post-Brexit referendum currency and regulatory disruptions that affected UK–EU trade flows across many product categories.
3.4 EU member-state specialisation reveals a two-tier market
The specialisation data for 2025 reveals a sharply polarised structure. At the top, Croatia (RSCA 0.70), Spain (0.62), and the Netherlands (0.47) show strong revealed comparative advantage in CN 0510 products, with Spain and the Netherlands together accounting for nearly 70% of EU export production shares in this category. At the other extreme, Slovakia (RSCA −1.00), Romania (−1.00), and Portugal (−0.99) have virtually no specialisation, with negligible production shares despite their overall trade weight.
This two-tier structure means that the EU's growing self-sufficiency in CN 0510 products rests on a narrow base of specialised member states — a concentration risk that may warrant attention from a strategic autonomy perspective.
Conclusion
The EU trade in CN 0510 products over 2015–2025 has been characterised by three dominant dynamics: a dramatic escalation of unit prices (particularly on the import side, where prices rose by over 310%), a structural shift from import dependence to near self-sufficiency driven by rapid export growth from specialised EU members, and an increasingly diversified export market offset by slightly more concentrated import sourcing. EU production has expanded substantially — both in volume (+76.5%) and especially in value (+194.1%) — underpinning the trade rebalancing.
Key risks remain. The import side has become more concentrated by value, with the United States accounting for an increasingly dominant share. Several bilateral relationships exhibit high volatility, and the UK–EU supply shock of 2017 illustrates how regulatory or macroeconomic disruptions can propagate through this niche market. Meanwhile, the EU's export competitiveness rests on a narrow geographic base — principally Spain, the Netherlands, and Italy — suggesting that any disruption to production in these member states could have outsized consequences.
Overall, the decade has transformed the EU's position in this market from a deficit-prone importer to a competitive, price-advantaged exporter, but the sustainability of this trajectory will depend on continued production growth in a handful of specialised member states and the management of supply-chain concentration risks on the import side.