Market evolution: Hot rolled silicon electrical steel coil (CN 72251910) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of European Union (EU) trade in hot-rolled silicon electrical steel coil (customs code 72251910) from 2015 to 2025. The period is marked by a dramatic restructuring of the EU's position in this market. Data reveals a fundamental shift from a region with significant export activity to one heavily reliant on imports, accompanied by a near-collapse of domestic production and profound changes in trade partnerships. The analysis is based on trade flows, partner concentrations, production data, and vulnerability metrics.

1. The Collapse of EU Export Capacity and its Domestic Roots

The most striking dynamic over the decade is the virtual disappearance of the EU's exports for this product, coupled with a severe contraction in its domestic manufacturing base. This section explores the scale of this decline and its impact on the EU's trade balance.

Export volumes have plummeted by over 95%

EU exports of hot-rolled silicon electrical steel coil experienced a catastrophic decline between 2015 and 2025. The quantity exported fell by 95.3%, from 29,979 tonnes to just 1,402 tonnes. The value of exports fell in tandem, decreasing by 85.3% to EUR 2.75 million. This collapse is not merely a cyclical downturn but points to a structural loss of export competitiveness.

General Overview of trade trends

Domestic production has contracted dramatically

The decline in exports is directly linked to a massive reduction in EU production capacity. Production volume for this product fell by 88.2% over the period, from 2.4 billion kg to 283 million kg. Production value also declined by 49.1%. This indicates a fundamental retreat from manufacturing hot-rolled silicon electrical steel within the EU, likely driven by global overcapacity, cost pressures, and shifts in downstream demand.

Production volumes data

The trade balance has turned negative and persistent

With exports collapsing while imports remained substantial, the EU's trade balance for this product deteriorated significantly. The deficit widened from approximately EUR 16 million in 2015 to EUR 18.9 million by 2025. The worst deficit recorded during the period was over EUR 106 million. This persistent deficit underscores the shift in the EU's role from a competitor to a net consumer in this market.

2. Restructuring of Import Partnerships and Rising Costs

As the EU's own production waned, its sourcing landscape transformed. Import patterns show a high concentration on a single major supplier, a shift in sourcing dynamics, and a general increase in import prices.

Türkiye became the overwhelmingly dominant supplier

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value remained extremely high throughout the period, only dipping slightly from 9970 to 9705, indicating a highly concentrated import market. This concentration was driven almost entirely by Türkiye, which consistently supplied over 95% of imports by value. In 2025, Turkish imports were valued at EUR 21.3 million. Other suppliers like the United Kingdom, Korea, and Brazil played minor, fluctuating roles.

Import concentration analysis

Import prices have risen significantly

Despite a decline in volume (-56.6%), the value of imports fell less sharply (-37.5%), as average import prices increased by 44.1% from EUR 412 per tonne to EUR 593 per tonne. This price inflation adds to the cost burden for EU consumers of this steel product and may reflect changes in global supply and demand balances or increased production costs in supplier nations.

The internal redistribution of EU member state roles

Data on EU reporters highlights a shift in which member states are the primary importers. While Romania remained the largest importer, other traditional hubs saw dramatic declines. For instance, reported imports into Germany and Poland fell by 100% and 99.4% respectively. Conversely, Sweden emerged as a new significant importer. This suggests a reconfiguration of internal distribution networks within the EU single market.

Internal EU reporter trends

3. Strategic Vulnerability and Export Market Volatility

The EU's deepened import dependence has increased its vulnerability, while its residual export activities have become highly volatile and subject to shocks. This section examines the metrics of vulnerability and the patterns of instability in the export side.

Import reliance has tripled, highlighting strategic vulnerability

The EU's Net Import Reliance surged from 13.1% in 2015 to 42.8% in 2025, a 227.7% increase. This metric confirms that the EU is now heavily dependent on external suppliers to meet its demand for this critical material, used in electric motors and transformers. The high concentration on a single supplier (Türkiye) amplifies this vulnerability.

Export markets were highly volatile and subject to shocks

Analysis of Export Volatility reveals that EU export destinations had high coefficients of variation (CV), indicating unstable year-to-year flows. The most pronounced shocks were detected in the trade relationship with India. A massive price shock (732.3% shift) occurred in 2020, followed by a near-total supply shock in 2021, where export volume to India collapsed by 99.7%. India, once the top export destination, saw its imports from the EU fall by 95.8% in value by 2025.

Detected supply and price shocks

Export propensities have declined while trade intensity grows

The EU's Export Propensity fell by 27.5%, confirming the erosion of its exporter status. In contrast, overall Trade Intensity increased by 23.1%, indicating that the EU economy as a whole has become more dependent on international trade for this product category, both for imports and residual exports.

Conclusion

The EU market for hot-rolled silicon electrical steel coil (CN 72251910) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most significant trend is the severe contraction of the EU's domestic production and export capabilities, leading to a structural trade deficit and a tripling of net import reliance. The import market has consolidated around Türkiye, creating a high level of supplier concentration. While import prices have risen, the volatility and shock-prone nature of the EU's remaining export activities underscore the instability of the new market equilibrium. These shifts suggest a strategic pivot away from manufacturing for this specific product, resulting in increased external dependence for a material critical to the energy transition.