Market evolution: Hot rolled alloy steel coils (CN 72253090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in hot-rolled alloy steel coils (customs code 72253090) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers flat-rolled products of alloy steel other than stainless, of a width ≥ 600 mm, not further worked than hot-rolled, in coils — excluding tool steel, high-speed steel, and silicon-electrical steel. This is a strategically important intermediate good for automotive, construction, and heavy machinery sectors. Over the decade, the EU trade landscape for this product was reshaped by a dramatic collapse in imports (driven primarily by the disappearance of Chinese supply), a reorientation of export markets, and sustained upward price pressure — all set against a backdrop of relatively stable domestic production volumes.

1. From Dependence to Autonomy: The Collapse of EU Imports

1.1 Import volumes fell by over 95% in a decade

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 72253090 is the near-total evaporation of imports. Between 2015 and 2025, import quantities fell from 494,254 tonnes to just 22,343 tonnes — a decline of 95.5%. In value terms, imports collapsed from €193.6 million to €16.0 million (−91.7%). This transformation turned the EU into an even more pronounced net exporter: the trade surplus widened from €420 million to €544.5 million (+29.6%), and the net import reliance deepened from −13.2% to −14.7%.

1.2 The disappearance of Chinese supply drove the import collapse

The import contraction is overwhelmingly explained by the evaporation of Chinese shipments. China went from the EU's dominant import source — €184.8 million in 2015, representing roughly 95% of total imports by value — to a negligible €6,787 in 2025, a virtual −100% decline. This collapse closely mirrors the timeline of the EU's steel safeguard measures (introduced in 2018) and subsequent anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products, which made Chinese-origin hot-rolled alloy steel coils commercially unviable in the EU market. The import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) confirms this structural shift: it plunged from 9,131 (highly concentrated, essentially a China-dominated market) in 2015 to 1,956 in 2025, indicating a much more diversified — though drastically smaller — import base.

*From a negligible base.

1.3 Within the EU, Italy and Bulgaria saw the steepest import declines

On the importer side within the EU, Italy's imports collapsed from €149.8 million to €681,000 (−99.5%), and Bulgaria's from €56.4 million to €493,000 (−99.1%). These two countries were the primary entry points for Chinese material into the EU. Spain's imports also fell sharply from €27.1 million to €2.6 million (−90.4%). By contrast, Sweden (+1,433%) and Greece (+1,427%) saw large percentage increases from small bases, but their absolute volumes remain modest — suggesting residual niche sourcing rather than a structural alternative to Chinese supply.

2. Reoriented Exports: The UK Surges as Türkiye and Algeria Fade

2.1 Export volumes fell while values held up, reflecting rising unit prices

EU export volumes in CN 72253090 declined from 1,168,869 tonnes to 714,568 tonnes (−38.9%) over the decade. However, export values fell by only 8.6% (from €613.6 million to €560.5 million) because unit export prices surged by 46.6%, from €525/tonne to €769/tonne. This divergence indicates that the EU has been exporting less tonnage but at substantially higher prices — consistent with a market-wide inflation in steel prices since 2021 and a potential shift towards higher-value product mixes.

2.2 The United Kingdom became the EU's top export destination

The most dramatic shift in export markets was the surge in exports to the United Kingdom, which rose from €58.9 million to €220.5 million (+274.3%) — making the UK the EU's single largest export market by 2025. This likely reflects post-Brexit trade dynamics: the UK, no longer part of the EU single market, became a distinct third-country destination, and UK domestic producers may not have been able to fully serve demand, creating a natural market for EU exporters. A price shock in UK imports was detected in 2021, with an abnormality score of 46.1 and a 68.1% price shift — coinciding with the post-pandemic steel price spike and possibly post-Brexit adjustment.

2.3 Traditional markets in Türkiye and Algeria contracted sharply

By contrast, exports to Türkiye — the EU's top destination in 2015 at €215.0 million — halved to €102.2 million (−52.5%). Exports to Algeria collapsed even more dramatically, from €116.6 million to €12.5 million (−89.2%). Meanwhile, the United States (+30.4%) and Mexico (+121.5%) gained ground, reflecting growing demand in the Americas. The export HHI rose modestly from 2,162 to 2,785 (+28.8%), suggesting a slight increase in export concentration — partly driven by the UK's growing dominance.

2.4 Germany's export dominance faded; France and the Netherlands gained ground

Among EU exporting countries, Germany's share collapsed from €263.0 million to €43.3 million (−83.5%) — a remarkable decline that likely reflects Germany's broader industrial slowdown and the restructuring of its steel sector. France maintained its position (€173.9M → €198.3M, +14.1%), and the Netherlands more than doubled its exports (€76.3M → €170.5M, +123.5%), potentially serving as a logistics hub. Belgium's exports surged from €10.2M to €38.5M (+278.9%), while Spain's fell by 79.1%.

3. Stable Production, Rising Prices, and Shifting Specialisation

3.1 EU production volumes remained remarkably stable despite trade upheaval

Despite the dramatic shifts in trade flows, EU production of CN 72253090 barely moved in volume terms: from 4,794,129 tonnes (2015) to 4,753,418 tonnes (2025), a decline of just 0.8%. Production values, however, rose by 42.3% (from €2.75 billion to €3.91 billion), mirroring the price increases seen in trade data. This stability in tonnage — in the face of collapsing imports and declining export volumes — suggests that EU producers redirected output towards domestic consumption and that the import substitution effect was significant: the tonnage formerly supplied by China was largely absorbed by EU mills.

3.2 Price shocks in 2021–2022 reflect a global steel market dislocation

The period 2021–2022 saw abnormal price movements across multiple trade flows. The data identifies three notable shock events:

These shocks coincide with the post-COVID global steel price surge, driven by supply chain disruptions, energy cost spikes, and restocking demand. The UK shock was particularly severe, likely amplified by post-Brexit trade frictions and the UK's relatively small domestic steelmaking capacity. Import volatility (measured by the coefficient of variation) was highest for Japan (2.26) and China (2.06) among import sources, and for Algeria (1.35) and Argentina (1.69) among export destinations — reflecting the instability of these trade relationships.

3.3 Specialisation is concentrated in a handful of EU member states

The EU's production specialisation in CN 72253090 is unevenly distributed. Using the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indicator for 2025:

Slovakia stands out with the highest specialisation (RSCA of 0.63), while France and Belgium together account for over 40% of EU production. At the other end, Romania, Portugal, Luxembourg, Denmark, and Estonia show negligible or no specialisation in this product. The trade intensity indicator (14.1% in 2025, down from 15.6% in 2015) confirms that while this product remains trade-oriented, the EU's overall engagement with international markets has modestly diminished.

Conclusion

The decade 2015–2025 witnessed a fundamental restructuring of the EU's trade position in hot-rolled alloy steel coils. The most consequential development was the near-total elimination of Chinese imports — driven by trade defence measures — which reduced the EU's import bill by over 90% and strengthened its net exporter status. However, this did not translate into export growth: EU export volumes fell by 39%, even as values held up due to a 47% rise in unit prices. The geographic centre of gravity of EU exports shifted decisively towards the United Kingdom, which overtook Türkiye as the top destination. Domestically, production volumes proved remarkably resilient, absorbing the demand previously met by imports. The 2021–2022 period stands out as an episode of acute price volatility, with shock events detected across multiple trade flows. Looking ahead, the EU's steel sector in this product category appears more self-reliant but faces the challenge of declining export volumes and a growing dependence on a narrower set of destination markets — particularly the UK — which introduces its own concentration risks.