Market evolution: High-speed steel coils (CN 72253030) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU trade dynamics for flat-rolled products of high-speed steel in coils (CN 72253030) over the decade from 2015 to 2025. The data reveals a market characterized by a profound structural contraction in trade volumes, significant geographical realignment, and a counterintuitive trend of rising prices. Overall, the EU has transitioned from a net importer to a more self-sufficient market, though this came with increased concentration and volatility in its external supply chains. For an overview of the product, see the Scope & Definitions.

I. Structural Decline and Import Retrenchment

The most striking feature of the EU's trade in high-speed steel coils is the severe and sustained decline in both import and export volumes over the period. This contraction reshaped the market's fundamental structure.

A steep and persistent fall in import volumes

EU imports of this specialty steel product collapsed from 2,865 tonnes in 2015 to just 466 tonnes in 2025, an 83.8% decrease. The decline was not linear but featured a sharp drop after 2018, reaching a minimum of just 82 tonnes in 2020. This indicates a fundamental reduction in external dependency for this specific product.

Source: General Overview

Domestic production filled a portion of the gap

While external trade shrank, EU production did not follow the same steep trajectory. Production volumes fell by 27.8% (from 100,000 to 72,170 tonnes), but production value declined only 6.6% (from EUR 98.2M to EUR 91.7M). This smaller decrease in value amidst falling volumes points to a shift towards higher-value production and a degree of import substitution.

Export activity diminished to a marginal level

The export side tells a similar story of contraction. Export volumes plunged from 586 tonnes in 2015 to a negligible 0.012 tonnes in 2025. The EU effectively ceased to be an exporter of this product to non-EU markets, further underscoring the sector's inward reorientation.

II. Geographical Shifts and Increased Concentration

The decline in trade was not evenly distributed. The data shows a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's key trading partners, leading to greater concentration and new vulnerabilities.

The collapse of the UK as a primary supplier

The United Kingdom was the EU's dominant source for imports, but its role evaporated. Import value from the UK fell from EUR 4.26 million in 2015 to EUR 0.67 million in 2025, a drop of 84.4%. The volatility analysis identifies a major supply shock from the UK in 2022, where its share of imports fell by 98.1%. This collapse is a primary driver of the overall decline in import volumes and represents a significant supply chain disruption.

Rising concentration and new, volatile partners

As traditional partners receded, the EU's import base became more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 9,941 to 4,806, but this indicates a shift from a single-supplier (UK) model to a few key sources. Italy and Taiwan emerged as important suppliers by 2025. Meanwhile, China's import volume displayed extreme volatility (CV of 2.33), with its value share swinging from a peak of EUR 1.28 million to EUR 179,194, signaling an unreliable source.

Source: Top Partners

Export markets also underwent realignment

On the export side, traditional North African markets (Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt) remained the primary destinations, albeit with fluctuating volumes. The most dramatic change was the near-total cessation of exports to the UK and a surge in shipments to the United States, which grew from EUR 22 to EUR 17,750—a symbolic shift reflecting changing competitive and trade landscapes.

III. The Paradox of Rising Prices and Improved Resilience

Against the backdrop of collapsing volumes, unit prices increased substantially, and key indicators of EU market autonomy improved significantly.

Unit prices rose sharply for both imports and exports

The average import price increased by 117.6% over the period, from EUR 449/t to EUR 977/t. Export prices showed an even more dramatic rise of 515.1%. This price inflation, occurring alongside volume declines, suggests a combination of factors: a flight to quality, increased costs in supplying chains, a shift towards higher-specification products, and the impact of tariffs or trade defense measures.

The EU's net import reliance decreased markedly

The net import reliance metric, which was negative throughout (indicating the EU was a net exporter or self-sufficient), improved from -17.4% in 2015 to -8.8% in 2025. This move closer to zero underscores the reduced role of imports and enhanced domestic capability.

Trade intensity and export propensity waned

The overall integration of this product in international trade diminished. Both trade intensity and export propensity fell by over 46%, confirming a broader trend towards regionalization or reduced global appetite for this niche product.

Conclusion

The EU market for high-speed steel coils (CN 72253030) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. It evolved from a moderately traded commodity into a more insular market with drastically reduced volumes of external trade. The collapse of the UK supply chain was a pivotal event, forcing a geographical shift towards fewer and sometimes more volatile partners like China and Italy. Concurrently, the rise in unit prices amidst falling volumes indicates a market restructuring around higher-value segments. Overall, these dynamics have resulted in a more resilient EU market in terms of net import reliance, but one that is also less globally integrated and potentially more exposed to supplier concentration risks. The future trajectory will depend on the stability of the new supply base and the EU's strategic industrial choices.