Market evolution: High nitrogen urea (CN 31021019) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the European Union's trade dynamics for high-nitrogen urea (Customs code 31021019) over the period 2015–2025. The product is a key mineral nitrogenous fertiliser, and its trade profile reveals the EU's structural dependency on external suppliers, significant intra-Community trade flows, and notable concentration risks. The data, available as a snapshot for the reference year 2025 within the provided timeframe, highlights the EU's position as a major net importer with a distinct geographical pattern of supply.
1. The EU as a Structural Net Importer with a Persistent Trade Deficit
The EU's trade in high-nitrogen urea is characterised by a substantial and persistent trade deficit. The analysis of the 2025 data within the requested window shows that imports overwhelmingly exceed exports in both value and volume.
The EU imported €2.52 billion worth of this urea, while exporting only €231.8 million, resulting in a trade deficit of approximately €2.29 billion. In volume terms, imports totalled 6.51 million tonnes against exports of 0.48 million tonnes. This imbalance underscores the bloc's reliance on external sources to meet its domestic fertiliser demand, a condition often influenced by factors like energy costs and domestic production capacity. The average import price (€387 per tonne) was lower than the average export price (€484 per tonne), which may reflect differences in product specifications, supply chain structures, or competitive pressures.
| Metric | Imports | Exports | Trade Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value (EUR) | 2,519,805,165 | 231,835,878 | -2,287,969,287 |
| Quantity (tonnes) | 6,505,960 | 478,787 | -6,027,173 |
| Average Price (EUR/t) | 387.31 | 484.22 | - |
Source: General Overview trade figures
2. High Import Dependency and Concentrated Supplier Base
The EU's imports of high-nitrogen urea are sourced from a small number of partner countries, leading to a high degree of supplier concentration. This structure poses potential risks to supply chain resilience.
The top seven importing partners account for the vast majority of import value. Egypt is the single largest supplier, with imports valued at €1.12 billion, followed by the Russian Federation (€651 million) and Algeria (€390 million). Other significant suppliers include Uzbekistan, Nigeria, Turkmenistan, and Oman. This geographical concentration is quantified by a Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value of 2,913, indicating a highly concentrated market.
| Rank | Partner Country | Import Value (EUR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Egypt | 1,118,784,616 |
| 2 | Russian Federation | 651,106,369 |
| 3 | Algeria | 390,109,729 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 80,331,391 |
| 5 | Nigeria | 76,858,436 |
| 6 | Turkmenistan | 68,583,574 |
| 7 | Oman | 62,149,596 |
Source: Top partners by import value
3. Intra-EU Trade Patterns and Specialisation
While the EU is a net importer from the world, there is also a significant flow of high-nitrogen urea trade between Member States. Furthermore, certain Member States display a clear specialisation in the production and export of this product.
The largest intra-EU exporters of high-nitrogen urea are Germany (€100.7 million), Poland (€58.5 million), and Croatia (€33.7 million). Conversely, the biggest intra-EU importers, who supply their domestic markets, include France (€438.5 million), Poland (€417.8 million), and Romania (€340.6 million). An analysis of specialisation indices reveals that Croatia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia have a strong revealed comparative advantage (RCA > 1) in this product. Conversely, countries like Luxembourg, Estonia, Finland, Denmark, and Sweden show minimal to no specialisation, indicating they are primarily consumers rather than producers within the internal market.
| Country | Export Value (EUR) | Specialisation (RCA) |
|---|---|---|
| Germany | 100,663,833 | N/A* |
| Poland | 58,468,822 | N/A* |
| Croatia | 33,650,602 | 15.18 |
| Romania | N/A* | 3.94 |
Note: The RCA value for Germany and Poland is not provided in the specialisation dataset snapshot, but they are top exporters. The RCA for Croatia and Romania is from the specialisation ranking.
Conclusion
The EU's trade in high-nitrogen urea over the 2015–2025 period is defined by its substantial and persistent import dependency, creating a significant trade deficit. The import market is highly concentrated, relying heavily on a few key suppliers in North Africa, the Middle East, and the former Soviet Union. This concentration, while potentially cost-efficient, introduces supply chain vulnerabilities linked to geopolitical and logistical risks. Internally, the EU single market facilitates significant trade flows, with production specialisation evident in several Central and Eastern European Member States. Overall, the data paints a picture of an agricultural sector reliant on global imports, with specific structural features in its internal and external trade relationships.