Market evolution: High carbon steel wire (CN 72179090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of EU customs code 72179090 — wire of iron or non-alloy steel, in coils, containing by weight ≥ 0.6% carbon, plated or coated (excluding products plated or coated with base metals, and bars and rods) — over the period 2015–2025. This niche but strategically important product within the EU steel sector is used in applications requiring high tensile strength, such as springs, cables, and industrial fasteners. It corresponds to Prodcom code 24.34.11.70.

Over the decade under review, EU extra-EU trade in this product underwent three major transformations: a dramatic reshuffling of import sourcing from East Asian suppliers toward Turkey and emerging Mediterranean sources; a structural price inflation that masked declining trade volumes; and an evolving export market structure characterised by growing concentration and rising trade intensity. The EU maintained a persistent trade deficit with non-EU partners, though this deficit narrowed from €11.1 million in 2015 to €9.4 million in 2025.

1. Import Sourcing Upheaval: Turkey's Rise and East Asia's Retreat

The most striking feature of EU import trade over the 2015–2025 period was the radical transformation of its supplier landscape. While total import values remained broadly stable (declining only 2.6%, from €20.1 million to €19.6 million), the composition of those imports changed beyond recognition.

Turkey emerged as the dominant non-EU supplier

Turkey's exports of CN 72179090 to the EU surged from €949,688 in 2015 to €6.0 million in 2025 — an increase of 532.9%. Turkey's relatively low trade volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.70) suggests this growth was gradual and sustained rather than driven by erratic shipments. Turkey's geographic proximity to the EU, its competitive production costs, and its customs union agreement with the EU likely facilitated this reorientation.

China and South Korea experienced sharp declines

China, the largest non-EU supplier in 2015 at €10.2 million, saw its share decline to €7.1 million by 2025 (-30.5%). More dramatically, South Korea — the third-largest supplier in 2015 at €5.8 million — collapsed to just €1.0 million (-82.4%). Korea's import volatility was exceptionally high (CV of 1.74), consistent with a supply relationship that was progressively disrupted.

The decline of Chinese supply may be linked to the EU's trade defence measures. A notable price shock was detected in EU imports from China in 2018, with unit prices surging by 126.1% (abnormality score of 11.2). At that time, China still accounted for 60.1% of EU import value — by far the largest share of any partner. This price shock coincides with the period when the EU introduced its steel safeguard measures in 2018, which imposed tariff-rate quotas on steel product imports.

New suppliers emerged as the EU diversified its sourcing

Egypt emerged as a significant new supplier, with exports to the EU rising from just €75,360 in 2015 to €1.3 million in 2025 — a 1,573.1% increase. The United Kingdom also became a more important supplier, growing from €522,759 to €2.2 million (+313.8%), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade reclassification (UK-EU trade became extra-EU from January 2021). Albania (+74.4%) also grew, albeit from a modest base.

This diversification is confirmed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value, which declined from 3,498 in 2015 to 2,489 in 2025 (-28.8%). While still in the "moderately concentrated" range, this significant reduction indicates that the EU substantially reduced its dependence on a small number of dominant suppliers.

Source: EU imports by partner country

2. The Price-Volume Paradox: Higher Values on Shrinking Volumes

A second major dynamic of the 2015–2025 period was a pronounced divergence between trade values and trade volumes. Across both imports and exports, unit prices rose significantly while volumes contracted, pointing to a structural price adjustment in the market for high carbon steel wire.

The export price-volume divergence was most pronounced

EU exports of CN 72179090 to non-EU countries saw unit prices increase by 44.3% — from €1,917/tonne in 2015 to €2,767/tonne in 2025. Over the same period, export volumes declined by 21.7%, from 4,697 tonnes to 3,677 tonnes. Thanks to the price increase, total export value still grew by 13.0% (from €9.0 million to €10.2 million). The peak export year by value was significantly higher than either endpoint, reaching €22.8 million with a volume of 8,940 tonnes — suggesting that the middle years of the period saw a temporary boom.

Import prices rose more moderately — by 13.7%, from €1,227/tonne to €1,394/tonne — while import volumes fell by 14.3% (from 16,376 tonnes to 14,037 tonnes). The net effect was a 2.6% decline in total import value. Import values also exhibited a wide range over the period, with a minimum of €7.7 million — likely corresponding to a demand trough during 2020.

Source: EU trade overview

EU production mirrored the same pattern

The EU's domestic production data from Prodcom confirms this structural shift. Production volumes declined by 18.1%, from 1.20 billion kg in 2015 to 0.98 billion kg in 2025. Yet production value surged by 51.2%, from €860 million to €1.3 billion. The production volume reached a low of 814 million kg during the period, while value peaked at €1.6 billion — a figure likely corresponding to the 2022 commodity price surge. This divergence suggests that EU producers are increasingly focusing on higher-value product grades and that input costs (particularly energy and raw materials) have risen substantially over the decade.

Source: EU production volumes

Isolated price shocks marked specific trade corridors

Beyond the broad upward price trend, the data reveals several notable price shocks in specific bilateral trade flows:

• China, 2018 (imports): Unit prices jumped 126.1% with an abnormality score of 11.2. Given China's 60.1% value share at the time, this was a market-defining event, likely linked to the EU's steel safeguard measures.
• Tunisia, 2022 (exports): EU export prices to Tunisia surged by 327.4% (abnormality 29.6), though Tunisia's value share was limited to 3.3%.
• Mexico, 2023 (exports): A similar price spike of 302.8% (abnormality 28.7) in EU exports to Mexico, with a 2.5% value share.

These shocks, while varying in market significance, point to periods of supply chain disruption or market repositioning in specific corridors. The volatility analysis further reveals that the United Kingdom was the most volatile import source (CV of 2.05), followed by India (1.85) and South Korea (1.74), while Switzerland was the most stable export destination (CV of 0.50) alongside Turkey (0.42) and Serbia (0.38).

3. Export Market Consolidation and Deepening Trade Integration

The third major transformation concerns the structure of EU exports and the evolving competitive position of EU member states in non-EU markets.

Export market concentration increased significantly

In contrast to the diversification observed on the import side, EU export concentration moved in the opposite direction. The export HHI (by value) more than doubled, rising from 973 in 2015 to 2,304 in 2025 (+136.7%). This indicates that EU exports became increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of destination markets, raising the EU's exposure to demand-side risks in those specific countries.

Switzerland and the United States were the primary beneficiaries of this concentration. Switzerland grew from €1.8 million to €3.0 million (+64.3%), while the United States expanded from €1.6 million to €3.6 million (+128.9%). Together with Turkey, these three markets absorbed a growing share of EU exports. Serbia emerged as a notable new destination, growing from €86,378 to €641,045 (+642.1%), and Egypt represented the most dramatic growth in percentage terms (+7,946.9%), though from a very small base of just €1,541.

Source: EU exports by partner country

EU member states experienced sharply divergent trajectories

The roles of individual EU member states in exporting and importing this product shifted dramatically over the period.

On the export side, Belgium — historically the largest EU exporter of this product — saw its export value decline from €14.6 million to €5.1 million (−65.2%). Spain experienced a similar contraction (−73.2%), while Italy (−45.9%) and Germany (−25.5%) also lost ground. Meanwhile, Lithuania emerged as a significant new exporter, growing from €4,952 to €129,629 (+2,517.7%). This concentration of decline in the traditional large exporters, combined with the emergence of smaller players, contributed to the rising export HHI noted above.

On the import side, France — the largest EU importer in 2015 at €6.6 million — saw its imports collapse to €673,423 (−89.8%). In contrast, Belgium's imports nearly quadrupled from €1.6 million to €5.5 million (+246.4%), and Denmark surged from €252,483 to €1.9 million (+668.3%). These shifts suggest a redistribution of import activity within the EU, possibly reflecting changes in downstream manufacturing locations and logistics hub effects.

Specialisation patterns reveal a concentrated core of competitive producers

Specialisation data for 2025 identifies Czechia as the most specialised EU producer in this product, with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.81 and a Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of 9.64. Czechia alone accounts for 46.3% of EU production in this category. Belgium (RSCA 0.47) and France (RSCA 0.41) also maintain strong specialisation positions. At the other end of the spectrum, Sweden, Ireland, Estonia, Slovakia, and Hungary show near-zero specialisation (RSCA close to −1.0), indicating they are negligible players in this product category.

Source: EU specialisation

Growing trade intensity signals deeper market integration

Despite declining volumes, the EU's trade intensity for this product increased from 21.7% to 29.5% (+35.6%) over the period. Similarly, export propensity rose from 15.6% to 19.7% (+26.9%). These increases, occurring alongside declining domestic production volumes, suggest that the EU's remaining production capacity is increasingly oriented toward export markets rather than serving purely domestic demand. The net import reliance remained negative throughout the period (from −8.3% to −6.3%), confirming that the EU is structurally a net exporter by production-weighted metrics, though its net export position narrowed slightly over the decade.

Conclusion

The EU market for high carbon steel wire (CN 72179090) underwent profound structural change between 2015 and 2025. Three interconnected dynamics defined this transformation.

First, the supplier landscape was completely reshuffled. Turkey supplanted China and South Korea as the primary non-EU supplier, growing by 532.9%, while Egypt (+1,573.1%) and the United Kingdom (+313.8%) emerged as new sources. This diversification reduced import concentration (HHI down 28.8%) and altered the competitive dynamics of the EU market. The 2018 price shock in Chinese imports — coinciding with the EU's steel safeguard measures — appears to have been a catalyst in this supplier transition.

Second, a sustained price inflation masked declining trade volumes. EU export prices rose 44.3% while volumes fell 21.7%; import prices rose 13.7% while volumes fell 14.3%. Domestic production followed the same pattern, with volumes declining 18.1% but values increasing 51.2%. This points to a market that is producing and trading less in physical terms but generating more value per unit — a pattern consistent with both input cost inflation and a shift toward higher-grade products.

Third, the EU's export market became more concentrated even as its import sources diversified. The export HHI more than doubled (+136.7%), while the growing trade intensity (from 21.7% to 29.5%) and export propensity (from 15.6% to 19.7%) indicate that the EU's remaining production is increasingly export-oriented. A concentrated core of specialised producers — notably Czechia (46.3% of EU production), Belgium, and France — drives the external trade.

Taken together, these trends paint a picture of a market in consolidation: fewer tonnes produced and traded, but at higher prices, with a more diversified import base and a more concentrated export profile. The EU remains a net exporter by production-weighted metrics, but its structural reliance on non-EU suppliers for this specific product category warrants continued monitoring — particularly in the context of the EU's evolving trade defence framework and the broader reshaping of global steel supply chains.