Market evolution: Halogenated hydrocarbon mixtures (CN 3827) — 2015–2025
Introduction
CN 3827 covers mixtures containing halogenated derivatives of methane, ethane or propane, not elsewhere specified. The heading encompasses a wide range of refrigerant and specialty-chemical blends — from legacy chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and hydrochlorofluorocarbon (HCFC) mixtures to modern hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) formulations used in air-conditioning, refrigeration and fire suppression. Because HFCs are potent greenhouse gases, the EU's F-Gas Regulation (No 517/2014, updated in 2024) imposes a phasedown quota on bulk HFC placements on the EU market, which directly shapes the trade dynamics observed in this product category.
The detailed data available at the EU level covers the four-year window 2022–2025. Over this period the EU market for CN 3827 has undergone a pronounced structural transformation: volumes have contracted sharply while unit values have climbed, the EU's once-comfortable trade surplus has nearly evaporated, and the geography of supply and demand has been redrawn. The following sections unpack these dynamics.
1. Collapsing volumes and surging unit values — the structural squeeze of the F-Gas phasedown
EU production has fallen off a cliff
The most dramatic signal in the data is the near-total retreat of EU domestic production. Reported production volumes fell from 364,186 tonnes (first period) to 10,000 tonnes (last period), a decline of −97.3%. Over the same span, production value dropped from €405.8 million to €100 million (−75.4%). The fact that value fell less steeply than volume indicates that the remaining EU output is concentrated in higher-value, lower-GWP specialty blends rather than commodity refrigerants.
Both exports and imports are shrinking in volume, but prices tell a different story
Against this backdrop, the overall trade picture is one of declining physical flows:
| Indicator | 2022 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 86.6 | 56.0 | −35.4% |
| Export volume (t) | 8,630 | 3,844 | −55.5% |
| Export unit price (€/t) | 10,034 | 14,556 | +45.1% |
| Import value (€M) | 44.0 | 49.5 | +12.3% |
| Import volume (t) | 9,018 | 5,027 | −44.3% |
| Import unit price (€/t) | 4,873 | 9,837 | +101.9% |
Export volumes more than halved, but export values fell by only a third because unit prices rose by 45%. Imports tell an even more striking story: volume dropped by 44% yet total import spending increased by 12%, propelled by a doubling of the average import price (from €4,873/t to €9,837/t). The F-Gas quota system restricts supply precisely as demand for certain HFC blends persists, creating a scarcity premium that shows up in steeply rising unit values on both sides of the ledger.
The EU trade surplus has eroded sharply
Because imports held up in value while exports contracted, the EU trade balance narrowed from €42.6 million in 2022 to just €6.5 million in 2025, a collapse of −84.7%. The EU remains a net exporter by value, but the margin is now razor-thin. In parallel, trade intensity (trade relative to production) surged from 20% to 70%, and export propensity climbed from 15% to 59% — both reflecting a domestic production base that has become a much smaller fraction of the market.
2. Geographical realignment — a new map of suppliers and destinations
US imports have surged as China's share recedes
The most striking partner-level shift on the import side is the meteoric rise of the United States. EU imports from the US grew from €1.1 million in 2022 to €23.7 million in 2025 (+2,084%), making the US the second-largest supplier after China. Meanwhile, imports from China fell from €30.5 million to €16.5 million (−45.9%). China remains the top source but its dominance has eroded considerably. Switzerland also saw a steep decline (from €6.0M to €1.8M, −70.4%), while smaller suppliers like Türkiye (+91.6%) and the United Arab Emirates (+143.3%) grew from very low bases.
| Top import partners | 2022 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 30.5 | 16.5 | −45.9% |
| United States | 1.1 | 23.7 | +2,084% |
| United Kingdom | 5.5 | 3.5 | −36.9% |
| Switzerland | 6.0 | 1.8 | −70.4% |
| Türkiye | 0.1 | 0.2 | +91.6% |
The import Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for value fell from 5,211 to 3,546 (−32%), confirming that the supplier base has become less concentrated — diversification away from a China-centric model is underway. However, the volatility data shows that the new US supply channel is far from stable: the coefficient of variation for US-origin imports stands at 1.23, indicating episodic, potentially quota-driven shipments rather than steady-state trade.
The Netherlands consolidates as the EU's central trade hub
On the EU reporter side, the Netherlands has cemented its position as both the largest importer (€32.7M in 2025, up 54%) and the largest exporter (€42.3M, up 66%). This is consistent with the Netherlands' role as a logistics gateway and home to major chemical distribution operations. Meanwhile, several traditional exporters have pulled back dramatically: France saw exports collapse from €35.4M to €0.7M (−97.9%), and Belgium and Spain also recorded declines exceeding 80%. The export HHI rose from 988 to 2,462 (+149%), reflecting this growing concentration of EU export activity in a smaller number of member states — principally the Netherlands.
Export destinations are becoming more volatile
On the export partner side, the United Kingdom (CV = 0.24) and the United States (CV = 0.27) remain the most stable destinations. By contrast, shipments to Saudi Arabia (−95.8%), Brazil (−94.1%), and India (−81.7%) have collapsed or become highly intermittent, with CVs approaching or exceeding 1.0. This pattern is consistent with the phase-down discouraging EU re-export of quota-constrained HFCs to distant markets, while nearby high-value markets (UK, US, Switzerland) continue to absorb available supply.
3. Diverging product segments — HFC blends under the quota regime
382763 (HFC-125 ≥ 40%) dominates imports but is declining in volume
The product segment breakdown reveals that CN 382763 — mixtures rich in pentafluoroethane (HFC-125), a key component of R-410A and other refrigerant blends — is the single largest import category by value. Import value for this subheading stood at €19.9M in 2022, dipped to €14.2M in 2024, and rebounded to €18.1M in 2025. However, volumes tell a different story: quantity fell from 4,091 tonnes to 2,755 tonnes (−33%), while the unit price climbed from €4,863/t to €6,573/t (+35%). The combination of persistent demand and tightening quotas keeps prices elevated.
382765 (HFC-32/HFC-125 ≥ 20% each) has surged in import value
The subheading CN 382765 — covering the R-410A type blend with both difluoromethane (HFC-32) and pentafluoroethane (HFC-125) at ≥20% each — experienced the most dramatic import value increase, jumping from €6.4M (2022) to €14.1M (2025), even as volume fluctuated. The unit price reached €14,621/t in 2025, reflecting both quota scarcity and the high GWP of this blend. On the export side, 382765 was the second-largest segment by value (€12.4M in 2025), with a unit export price of €22,031/t — well above the import price, suggesting the EU adds considerable value through blending, certification, or logistics.
382769 (other HFC mixtures, n.e.s.) is a fast-growing residual category
The catch-all subheading CN 382769 saw imports surge from €1.7M to €10.0M (+497%) over the period, while volumes grew from 73 to 625 tonnes. Its unit price reached €15,949/t in 2025. This growth likely reflects the increasing heterogeneity of specialty HFC and HFC/HFO-blend formulations entering the market as manufacturers reformulate to stay within GWP limits, pushing some products into the residual "other" code.
382768 is the EU's flagship export blend
On the export side, CN 382768 — mixtures containing HFCs combined with substances of subheadings 2903.41 to 2903.48 (i.e. blends with HFOs or other unsaturated fluorinated compounds) — is the largest segment, with €23.3M in export value in 2025. Despite volumes declining from 4,180 to 2,017 tonnes (−52%), the unit price rose to €11,539/t (+39%). This subheading likely captures next-generation low-GWP refrigerant blends that the EU is well-positioned to produce and export, supporting the narrative of a product mix shifting toward higher-value, more environmentally compliant formulations.
Summary of top product segments (2025)
| Subheading | Import value (€M) | Import price (€/t) | Export value (€M) | Export price (€/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 382763 (HFC-125 ≥ 40%) | 18.1 | 6,573 | 8.9 | 14,791 |
| 382765 (HFC-32 + HFC-125 ≥ 20%) | 14.1 | 14,621 | 12.4 | 22,031 |
| 382769 (other HFCs) | 10.0 | 15,949 | 3.2 | 16,131 |
| 382768 (HFCs + HFO-related) | — | — | 23.3 | 11,539 |
Conclusion
The EU market for halogenated hydrocarbon mixtures (CN 3827) is in the throes of a regulatory-driven structural transformation. Domestic production has collapsed by over 97% in volume terms, a decline that is almost certainly a direct consequence of the F-Gas Regulation's HFC phasedown quotas. As a result, the EU's traditional role as a net exporter has been eroded: the trade surplus shrank from €42.6M to €6.5M, and the share of trade in total market activity has tripled. Unit prices have doubled on the import side and risen 45% on the export side, reflecting the growing scarcity of quota-limited HFCs. Geographically, the supplier map has shifted markedly — the United States has emerged as a major import source while China's dominance has waned, and EU export activity has concentrated in the Netherlands as French, Belgian and Spanish exporters have retreated. At the product level, legacy HFC-125 blends remain the largest category but next-generation HFC/HFO mixtures (CN 382768) now represent the EU's single most valuable export segment, pointing to a market that is not disappearing but rather pivoting toward lower-GWP formulations. Looking ahead, the 2024 revision of the F-Gas Regulation will tighten quotas further, suggesting that volume contraction and price escalation will continue, and that the EU's import dependency will deepen unless domestic capacity for compliant alternatives scales up accordingly.