Market evolution: Galvanized steel sheets (CN 721041) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in galvanized flat-rolled steel products (Customs Nomenclature code 721041) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers hot-dip zinc-coated flat-rolled steel sheets of a width ≥ 600 mm, a critical input for construction, automotive, and appliance manufacturing. The EU has maintained a structural trade surplus in this product throughout the period, but the decade has been marked by significant shifts in trade volumes, pricing, partner geography, and supply concentration—shaped by trade defence measures, geopolitical disruptions, and global steel market volatility. The analysis draws on Eurostat-reported data covering the complete years from 2015 through 2025.

1. A decade of rising prices and declining volumes

The EU's export value masked a collapse in physical shipments

At first glance, EU exports of CN 721041 to non-EU countries appear relatively stable in value terms, moving from approximately €5.3 million in 2015 to €6.5 million in 2025—an increase of 21.9% over the period. However, this headline figure conceals a dramatic erosion in physical trade. Export quantity fell by 56.5%, from 10,189 tonnes in 2015 to just 4,430 tonnes in 2025. The volume peaked at 21,107 tonnes in an intermediate year before declining sharply, while the value peaked at €13.1 million. This divergence was driven entirely by unit prices: the average export price surged by 180.3%, from €521 per tonne to €1,459 per tonne, reaching a maximum of €2,237 per tonne during the post-pandemic price spike.

Import volumes followed a similar downward trajectory

EU imports also contracted in volume, falling 35.1% from 5,188 tonnes to 3,368 tonnes. In value terms, imports declined from €3.99 million to €3.67 million (−8.1%), but unit prices rose by 41.6% (from €770 to €1,090 per tonne). The import value reached a maximum of €7.05 million in an intermediate year, while the volume peaked at 8,483 tonnes, indicating that quantity declines have outpaced the price-driven value increases.

The trade balance widened in value even as volumes shrank

The EU's trade surplus in value terms more than doubled from €1.31 million to €2.79 million (+113.2%), peaking at nearly €8.0 million in an intermediate year. This apparent improvement in the trade position, however, is largely a price effect. The physical net-export position narrowed considerably, as export volumes fell faster (−56.5%) than import volumes (−35.1%). The structural shift from volume-driven to price-driven trade performance is a defining feature of the decade.

2. A dramatic reshuffling of trade partners

Import origins shifted decisively toward Russia and Vietnam

The most striking transformation in the data concerns the geography of EU imports. In 2015, China was the dominant supplier (€1.46 million), followed by the United Kingdom (€838,000) and India (€888,000). By 2025, Russia had become the largest single source of EU imports (€2.06 million, a staggering +3,217% increase), while Vietnam surged from virtually zero (€18,000) to €3.18 million—a 17,137% increase that makes it the single largest import origin by value in the final year.

The collapse of Indian imports (−94.5%) is particularly noteworthy and likely reflects the impact of EU trade defence measures, including anti-dumping duties that were imposed on certain Indian steel products during this period. China's decline (−52.3%) similarly coincides with the tightening of EU safeguard measures on steel imports.

Export destinations showed a pivot toward emerging markets

On the export side, the United Kingdom and Norway remained the two largest EU export markets, with the UK growing to €1.43 million (+43.6%) and Norway to €1.43 million (+44.0%). Traditional markets like Turkey (−59.9%) and Egypt (−86.4%) saw sharp declines. Meanwhile, several emerging markets emerged or expanded dramatically: Pakistan (+2,853%), Ghana (+5,660%), and Moldova (+220.3%) all became significant EU export destinations by 2025.

This shift suggests EU producers are increasingly targeting markets where they can command higher prices, possibly because lower-cost Asian suppliers have redirected their flows toward the EU itself, displacing EU producers from some traditional price-sensitive export markets.

Import concentration increased markedly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration rose from 2,452 to 3,743 in value terms (+52.6%) and from 2,556 to 4,078 in volume terms (+59.5%). These levels indicate a moderately concentrated market that has become significantly more dependent on a smaller number of suppliers. The maximum HHI during the period reached 5,096 in value, touching the threshold for a highly concentrated market. By contrast, export concentration declined modestly (−10.4% in value, −20.3% in volume), reflecting the diversification toward more export partners.

3. Supply shocks, geopolitical disruption, and rising vulnerability

The 2021 price shock was a watershed moment for EU import dependencies

The data reveals three major price shocks centred on 2021, all on the import side. Imports from Russia saw a price abnormality score of 119.5 and a price shift of +220.6%, with Russia's share of EU import value reaching 14.3% that year. Vietnam's imports showed an even more extreme price shift of +1,253.9% (abnormality score 118.8), with a 12.6% share. Turkey also experienced a price shock of +134.6% (abnormality 46.1). These shocks coincided with the post-COVID global steel price surge, the energy crisis in Europe, and the tightening of EU safeguard quotas.

Import volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation, was highest for Morocco (CV = 1.70), India (1.62), Turkey (1.61), Taiwan (1.55), Vietnam (1.45), and Russia (1.32)—all non-traditional or distant suppliers. By contrast, the United Kingdom (0.42) and China (0.49) showed more stable import flows, though both declined in absolute terms.

EU domestic production declined sharply in volume

EU production of CN 721041 in volume terms fell by 62.6%, from 31.2 billion kg in 2015 to 11.7 billion kg in 2025—a decline even steeper than the fall in export volumes. Production value, however, rose by 9.5% (from €10.2 billion to €11.2 billion), confirming that the price effect dominated across both trade and production data. This production contraction suggests a structural rationalisation of EU steelmaking capacity, driven by high energy costs, decarbonisation investment pressures, and competitive dynamics.

The internal specialisation profile reveals that Romania (RSCA = 0.87) and Spain (RSCA = 0.53) are the most specialised EU producers, while large economies like Belgium, Finland, and Portugal have near-zero specialisation, indicating they are primarily consumers or re-exporters rather than competitive producers.

The EU's net import reliance tripled, signalling growing vulnerability

The net import reliance ratio increased from 5.2% in 2015 to 16.3% in 2025, a rise of 213.4%. During the period, it reached a maximum of 25.3%, and briefly turned negative (−10.0%) in one year, indicating a temporary swing to net export status. The trend toward higher import reliance, combined with the concentration of imports in a smaller number of more volatile partners (Russia, Vietnam), suggests that the EU's supply security for this critical steel product has weakened materially.

The export propensity—the share of EU production exported to non-EU countries—declined from 13.7% to 11.2% (−18.1%), consistent with the picture of a domestic industry producing less and exporting a smaller share of what it produces. Meanwhile, trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) rose to 32.0%, indicating that the EU economy has become more reliant on international trade flows for this product even as its own production base contracted.

Conclusion

The EU trade in galvanized steel sheets (CN 721041) over 2015–2025 tells a story of structural transformation. While trade values remained relatively stable or even improved modestly, this masked a fundamental erosion in physical volumes—both in production and in trade flows. Unit prices rose dramatically, driven by global steel market dynamics, energy costs, and trade policy interventions. The most consequential change has been the radical reshaping of import origins: traditional suppliers like India and China have been displaced by Russia and Vietnam, concentrating import risk in fewer and more geopolitically sensitive sources. The tripling of net import reliance, combined with a 62.6% decline in EU production volumes and rising import concentration (HHI up 52.6%), points to a meaningful deterioration in the EU's supply autonomy for this strategically important steel product. Policymakers concerned with industrial resilience and supply security may wish to monitor these trends closely, particularly as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and ongoing trade defence measures continue to reshape the competitive landscape.