Market evolution: Aluminium-zinc coated steel (CN 721061) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's trade in aluminium-zinc coated flat-rolled steel products (customs code 721061) between 2015 and 2025. CN 721061 covers flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, of a width of at least 600 mm, plated or coated with aluminium-zinc alloys — commonly known by trade names such as Galvalume® or Zincalume®. These products are widely used in construction, roofing, cladding, and appliances due to their superior corrosion resistance compared to traditional galvanised steel.

The period under review witnessed a profound structural transformation of this market. The EU shifted from a position of near self-sufficiency — even net exporting at certain points — to one of growing import dependence. This report traces that transformation through three main lenses: the collapse of EU export capacity alongside the surge in imports; the reorientation of sourcing toward Asian suppliers; and the price shocks that punctuated the decade, particularly around 2021.

I. From self-sufficiency to import dependence: the structural transformation of EU trade flows

The most striking feature of the CN 721061 market over 2015–2025 is the simultaneous collapse of EU exports and explosive growth of imports, fundamentally altering the EU's trade position.

Export volumes fell by nearly 89 % over the decade

EU exports of aluminium-zinc coated steel declined from 61,836 tonnes (worth €42.0 million) in 2015 to just 7,064 tonnes (worth €7.5 million) in 2025 — a drop of 88.6 % in volume and 82.1 % in value. The minimum volume recorded was 6,528 tonnes, indicating that 2025 was near the historical floor. Traditional export destinations virtually disappeared:

Source: General Overview — Top partners (exports)

The near-total withdrawal from the US and UK markets — down 99.3 % and 97.5 % respectively — is particularly notable and likely reflects a combination of lost cost-competitiveness, safeguard measures, and the diversion of EU production toward the domestic market.

Import volumes multiplied nearly sevenfold

Over the same period, EU imports surged from 73,112 tonnes (€47.7 million) to 489,315 tonnes (€355.4 million) — an increase of 569 % in quantity and 646 % in value. At its peak, imports reached 581,220 tonnes (€654.8 million). This surge was broad-based across EU Member States:

Source: General Overview — Top reporters (imports)

The EU's trade balance swung from near-balance to a deep deficit

The merchandise trade balance for CN 721061 deteriorated from a modest deficit of €−5.7 million in 2015 to €−347.9 million in 2025, a swing of over 6,000 %. The maximum deficit reached was €−639.5 million. Correspondingly, the EU's net import reliance rose from 5.2 % in 2015 to 16.3 % in 2025 — and at certain points during the decade it even briefly turned negative (minimum −10.0 %), suggesting temporary net-exporter status before the subsequent collapse. By 2025, the EU was structurally reliant on imports to meet domestic demand for this product.

II. A geographic pivot: Asian suppliers displace traditional partners

The surge in EU imports was not evenly distributed across trading partners. Rather, it was driven overwhelmingly by a handful of Asian exporters, led by a spectacular rise from Viet Nam.

Viet Nam became the EU's dominant supplier

The most dramatic shift in sourcing was the rise of Viet Nam, whose exports to the EU grew from a negligible €157,749 in 2015 to €136.2 million in 2025 — an increase of over 86,000 %. At its peak, Vietnamese exports to the EU reached €270.5 million. Viet Nam's rise accounts for a substantial share of the entire import surge and is consistent with the broader pattern of Vietnamese steel exports expanding rapidly into Western markets since the mid-2010s, partly driven by capacity built with Chinese investment.

Taiwan, Korea, and India also expanded significantly

Behind Viet Nam, several other Asian suppliers grew sharply:

Source: General Overview — Top partners (imports)

China's imports remained virtually flat (+2 %), while Türkiye — once a minor but growing supplier — collapsed by 99.2 %, likely reflecting EU trade defence measures and Türkiye's own steel sector difficulties. India's rise to nearly €60 million, from under €5 million, is consistent with India's emergence as a major coated-steel exporter to Europe in the early 2020s.

Trade defence and shifting competitive dynamics underpin the geographic pivot

Several factors help explain this geographic reorientation. The EU maintained anti-dumping and countervailing duties on certain Chinese steel products during this period, which may have limited direct Chinese imports while encouraging indirect supply chains through Viet Nam and other third countries. The EU–Viet Nam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), which entered into force in August 2020, further facilitated Vietnamese access to the EU market. Meanwhile, the withdrawal of Türkiye as a supplier and the stagnation of Chinese volumes suggest that trade policy interventions did have selective effects, even if they failed to prevent the broader surge in Asian imports.

Import concentration remained moderate despite the shift

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value decreased from 2,864 in 2015 to 2,441 in 2025 (−14.8 %), indicating that while a few suppliers dominate, the market became somewhat less concentrated over time. Values in the 2,200–3,200 range are generally classified as moderately concentrated. The diversification from a single reliance on a few traditional suppliers to a broader (though still Asia-centric) base represents a structural shift, even if it does not eliminate supply-chain risk.

III. Price shocks and production contraction: the turbulence of 2020–2022

The middle years of the period under review — particularly 2020–2022 — were marked by significant price volatility and supply disruptions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic, the post-pandemic recovery, and the global steel price surge.

Import and export prices diverged

EU export unit values rose by 57 % over the decade, from €679/t in 2015 to €1,066/t in 2025, peaking at €1,382/t. Import unit values rose more modestly, by 11.4 %, from €652/t to €726/t, peaking at €1,220/t. The sustained price premium on EU exports (export prices exceeded import prices in most years) is consistent with the EU producing higher-value or more specialised coated steel for niche applications, while commodity-grade product increasingly came from lower-cost Asian producers.

The 2021 supply-price shock was the most significant market disruption

The most notable volatility event detected in the data occurred in 2021, when a confluence of factors — pandemic-related supply disruptions, soaring energy costs, and global steel demand recovery — produced sharp price spikes across multiple trade flows:

Source: Volatility & Shocks — Top shock events

The US export price shock (abnormality 52.3, price shift +145 %) was the most extreme, but the Viet Nam import price shock was arguably more consequential for EU supply chains given that Vietnamese products constituted 33.9 % of import value — the largest single share. The volatility analysis further shows that several import partners exhibited coefficient-of-variation (CV) values above 0.9 — including Türkiye (1.21), Viet Nam (1.02), Japan (0.97), and Australia (1.06) — indicating highly volatile trade flows that amplify price risk for EU buyers.

EU domestic production contracted sharply

EU production of CN 721061 in quantity terms fell by 62.6 %, from 31.2 billion kg (2015) to 11.7 billion kg (2025), with a trough of 8.7 billion kg. Production value, however, rose by 9.5 % — from €10.2 billion to €11.2 billion — implying a substantial increase in unit production values and a shift toward higher-value product mixes. This divergence between falling volumes and rising values is consistent with EU producers retreating from commodity-grade coated steel (where they face intense Asian competition) and concentrating on premium or specialised grades where they retain a cost or quality advantage. Specialisation indicators support this interpretation: Belgium (RSCA 0.75), Sweden (0.60), and Portugal (0.55) show strong revealed comparative advantage in this product, while most other Member States have near-zero or negative specialisation.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's aluminium-zinc coated steel market underwent a fundamental structural shift. The bloc moved from a position of approximate trade balance — with production volumes exceeding 30 billion kg and exports covering a meaningful share of output — to one of pronounced import dependence, with a trade deficit of €348 million and net import reliance of 16.3 % by 2025.

This transformation was driven by three reinforcing dynamics. First, EU producers lost export competitiveness in commodity-grade products, with export volumes collapsing by 89 %. Second, Asian suppliers — above all Viet Nam, but also Taiwan, India, and South Korea — filled the gap with massive import growth, reshaping the EU's sourcing geography. Third, sharp price shocks in 2021 exposed the vulnerability of EU supply chains to external disruption, even as domestic production volumes continued their secular decline.

The EU appears to be following a "hollowing-out" pattern in this product category: retreating from high-volume, lower-value production while maintaining a presence in specialised segments where domestic producers retain advantages. Whether this trajectory is sustainable will depend on the effectiveness of EU trade defence instruments, the evolution of global steel overcapacity (particularly in Asia), and the willingness of end-users to absorb the price premium associated with domestic supply.