Market evolution: Frozen chicken cuts (CN 02071410) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of frozen boneless cuts of chicken (CN 02071410) for the European Union with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. Over this decade, the EU's position in this market underwent a fundamental transformation. What was once a market characterized by a trade surplus shifted decisively into a deficit, driven by a surge in imports that outpaced export growth. This period was marked by significant changes in trade partners, price volatility, and a notable expansion in EU production. The following sections detail these key dynamics.

The Great Reversal: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

The decade's most defining trend is the EU's shift from being a net exporter to a net importer of frozen chicken cuts. This reversal was driven by the sheer scale of import growth, which significantly outpaced the more modest expansion of exports.

Dramatic import growth outstripped export gains

Between the first and last year of the period, the value of EU imports grew by 105.2%, from €240.8 million to €494.2 million. Over the same period, export value grew by a much smaller 6.3%, from €366.9 million to €390.1 million (General Overview trade).

Quantity growth told a similar, though less extreme, story

The volume of imports increased by 44.1% (from ~99,500 tonnes to ~143,400 tonnes), while export volumes rose by 22.0% (from ~272,200 tonnes to ~332,000 tonnes) (General Overview trade). The larger value increase for imports is explained by divergent price trends.

Import prices surged while export prices fell

The average price of imports increased by 42.4% over the period, reaching €3,447 per tonne in 2025. In contrast, the average price of EU exports decreased by 12.8% to €1,175 per tonne (General Overview trade). This price divergence points to a change in the quality or cut mix of trade, with the EU importing higher-value products.

Shifting Alliances: New Trade Partners and Market Concentration

The structure of the EU's trade partnerships for this product underwent significant reshuffling, particularly on the import side. This led to changes in market concentration for both imports and exports.

Brazil solidified its lead, but Ukraine emerged as a powerhouse supplier

Brazil remained the EU's top import source throughout the period, with import value growing by 72.0% to €210.2 million. However, the most dramatic shift came from Ukraine, whose exports to the EU grew by 462.8% to become the second-largest supplier at €216.9 million in 2025, nearly matching Brazil (General Overview top_partners_by_value imports). Thailand also saw substantial growth (+158.3%).

The UK's role diminished in both directions

The United Kingdom was a crucial partner at the start of the period but its role has decreased. As an export destination for the EU, its share of value fell by 39.6% to €159.3 million. As a source of imports into the EU, its value dropped by 80.7% to €10.3 million (General Overview top_partners_by_value). This likely reflects the changed trading relationship post-Brexit.

Export destinations diversified while import sources became more concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports fell sharply by 60.4%, indicating the EU successfully diversified its export markets (Market Structure concentration_hhi). New growth markets included Cuba, Ghana, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Conversely, the HHI for imports increased by 12.4%, suggesting a slight concentration in supply sources, solidifying the dominance of Brazil and Ukraine.

Waves of Change: Production, Specialization, and Price Volatility

Underlying the trade shifts was a substantial expansion in the EU's own production capacity. This growth was unevenly distributed across the bloc, creating new specializations and exposing the market to significant price shocks.

EU production expanded significantly

Over the period, the quantity of EU production of this product grew by 65.2%, from 774.8 million kg to 1.28 billion kg. The value of production grew even faster, by 134.0%, from €1.20 billion to €2.80 billion (Market Structure production). This indicates rising domestic demand and possibly a shift toward higher-value products.

Specialization intensified in Eastern Europe

The analysis of Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows that Poland (RSCA 0.64) and Latvia (RSCA 0.62) are the most specialized EU exporters of this product, followed by the Netherlands (RSCA 0.46) (Market Structure most_specialised_reporters). Poland's specialization is particularly notable given its large and growing export share. Meanwhile, traditional Western European poultry producers like France and Ireland show negative specialization, indicating they are net importers.

The 2022 price shock reveals supply chain vulnerabilities

The data detects a major price shock in 2022, with abnormality levels of 26.1 for imports from Brazil and 22.9 for exports to Cuba (Volatility & Shocks top_shock_events). The import price shock from Brazil, which accounted for 49.5% of import value, had a shift of +71.5% and likely contributed to the high volatility measured for Brazilian imports (CV of 0.23). This event underscores the EU's exposure to disruptions from a key supplier.

Conclusion

The 2015-2025 period redefined the EU's trade in frozen chicken cuts. The bloc transitioned from a net exporter with a healthy trade surplus to a net importer, as import values more than doubled. This was fueled by a massive increase in shipments from Ukraine and sustained, high-value flows from Brazil. Concurrently, the EU's export strategy diversified, reducing reliance on the UK and building new ties with developing economies. Domestically, production boomed, led by emerging specializations in Poland and the Netherlands. The market's new equilibrium, however, is not without its risks, as highlighted by the severe price volatility and shocks experienced in 2022, primarily linked to Brazil. The EU's growing dependence on imported volumes, coupled with its own expanding production, sets the stage for a more interconnected and potentially volatile market in the years ahead.