Market evolution: Forklift trucks (CN 8427) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in forklift trucks and other works trucks fitted with lifting or handling equipment, classified under Combined Nomenclature code 8427, over the period 2015–2025. The product group encompasses three sub-categories: self-propelled electric trucks (842710), self-propelled non-electric trucks (842720), and non-self-propelled works trucks (842790). Despite a persistent and sizeable trade surplus, the EU's forklift trade landscape has undergone significant structural transformation over the decade, characterised by surging imports—particularly from China—the near-total collapse of exports to Russia, a decisive shift toward electric vehicles, and rising price levels across both flows. The following sections analyse these dynamics in detail.
1. A Dominant Exporter Under Growing Import Pressure
1.1 The EU maintains a large but narrowing trade surplus
Throughout the 2015–2025 period, the European Union remained a consistent net exporter of forklift trucks. However, the trade balance tells a story of convergence. While the EU surplus in value terms grew modestly from €1.93 billion in 2015 to €2.31 billion in 2025 (+19.6%), this growth lagged far behind the expansion of trade on both sides. The surplus peaked at approximately €3.08 billion (likely around 2022) before retreating.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (€ billion) | 2.80 | 4.47 | +60.0% |
| Imports (€ billion) | 0.87 | 2.17 | +149.7% |
| Trade surplus (€ billion) | 1.93 | 2.31 | +19.6% |
The fact that imports grew at roughly 2.5 times the pace of exports is the defining structural shift of the decade. In 2015, imports represented barely 31% of export value; by 2025, this ratio had climbed to 48%.
1.2 Export growth was driven by higher prices more than by volumes
EU export value rose 60% over the decade, but mass quantities exported increased only 14.1% (from 474,446 t to 541,573 t). The bulk of the value growth came from a 40.1% increase in unit export prices (from €5,900/t to €8,262/t), reflecting a combination of inflationary pressures, the post-COVID cost surge, and likely a shift toward higher-value vehicles. The export price peaked at €8,521/t (around 2023–2024) before edging lower.
1.3 Import volumes more than doubled, powered by China
Import quantities surged 107.8% (from 234,379 t to 487,129 t), while import values rose 149.7%. The disproportionate rise in value relative to volume indicates that unit import prices also climbed—by 20.2% from €3,700/t to €4,445/t. China emerged as the dominant driver of this import expansion.
Partners – imports and exports
2. Shifting Geographies: China's Surge and Russia's Disappearance
2.1 China's ascent from minor supplier to dominant import partner
The most dramatic geopolitical shift in EU forklift trade over the decade was the explosive growth of Chinese imports. EU imports from China rose from €246 million in 2015 to €1.08 billion in 2025—an increase of 339.1%. By 2025, China accounted for roughly half of all EU forklift imports by value, up from about 28% at the start of the period. This growth reflects China's rapid industrialisation in the forklift sector, competitive pricing, and the broader trend of global supply chain diversification toward Chinese manufacturing.
2.2 The United Kingdom: a major but volatile trade partner
The UK remained the EU's single largest export destination (€1.09 billion in 2025, +59.6%) and its second-largest import source (€725 million, +81.8%). The bilateral relationship deepened after Brexit, though with significant volatility. Notably, the data detects a sharp import price shock from the UK in 2023, with import prices surging 40% in abnormal fashion—likely reflecting post-Brexit regulatory adjustments, currency movements, or supply chain reconfiguration.
| Partner (Imports) | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 246 | 1,078 | +339% |
| United Kingdom | 399 | 725 | +82% |
| United States | 69 | 141 | +104% |
| Viet Nam | 5.5 | 44 | +713% |
| Korea, Republic of | 73 | 54 | −26% |
| Malaysia | 20 | 12 | −39% |
| Japan | 18 | 15 | −18% |
The emergence of Vietnam as an import source (+713%) is consistent with broader supply chain shifts in manufacturing toward Southeast Asia.
2.3 The collapse of exports to Russia
Perhaps the most striking single-country shift was the near-total evaporation of EU exports to Russia. From €130 million in 2015 (and a peak of €268 million during the period), exports fell to just €3,600 in 2025—a decline of 100%. This reflects the successive rounds of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which progressively restricted the export of industrial machinery. The Russian market, once a significant outlet for EU forklift producers, has been effectively closed.
2.4 Export growth redirected toward the US, Turkey, and the Gulf
The loss of the Russian market was more than compensated by growth elsewhere. Exports to the United States expanded from €477 million to €1.04 billion (+117.6%), making the US the second-largest destination after the UK. Turkey surged from €145 million to €389 million (+168.8%), reflecting its growing role as a logistics and manufacturing hub. Australia (+61.1%), Switzerland (+54.3%), and Norway (+58.2%) also showed robust growth. Poland, an EU member but tracked as an origin of intra-EU re-exports, saw its export value rise by 1,037%.
| Partner (Exports) | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 686 | 1,094 | +60% |
| United States | 477 | 1,038 | +118% |
| Türkiye | 145 | 389 | +169% |
| Australia | 129 | 207 | +61% |
| Russian Federation | 130 | 0.004 | −100% |
| Switzerland | 128 | 197 | +54% |
| Norway | 106 | 167 | +58% |
3. The Electric Transition and Its Market Consequences
3.1 Electric forklifts (842710) overtook non-electric models as the growth engine
The product segment breakdown reveals a decisive structural shift toward electric-powered vehicles. In 2015, electric forklifts (CN 842710) represented a minority of EU imports by mass (46,628 t out of 234,379 t, or ~20%). By 2025, electric imports had surged to 234,715 t—accounting for nearly half of all imports by mass (48%) and surpassing non-electric models (CN 842720) in value terms for the first time.
| Segment | 2015 Imports (€M) | 2025 Imports (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 842710 – Electric, self-propelled | 241 | 1,021 | +324% |
| 842720 – Non-electric, self-propelled | 506 | 998 | +97% |
| 842790 – Non-self-propelled | 121 | 146 | +21% |
Electric forklifts now represent the dominant import category by value, having overtaken non-electric models. In supplementary unit terms (number of items), the growth was even more striking: electric imports jumped from 51,465 items in 2015 to 365,714 items in 2025—an increase of over 600%.
3.2 EU exports remain tilted toward non-electric, but electric is gaining ground
On the export side, non-electric forklifts (842720) still represented the larger category in 2025 at €1.95 billion versus €2.27 billion for electric models (842710). However, electric exports grew faster: the value of electric forklift exports rose 86% over the decade, while non-electric exports grew 36%. This mirrors the global industry trend toward electrification of material handling equipment, driven by environmental regulations, indoor-use requirements, and falling battery costs.
3.3 Unit values diverged: electric trucks command a premium
A consistent feature across both trade flows is that electric forklifts carry higher per-unit prices than their non-electric counterparts. In 2025, EU export prices averaged €8,948/item for electric models versus €7,287/item for non-electric (supplementary unit basis). On the import side, the differential was less pronounced but still present. The rising share of electric models thus contributed to the overall increase in average trade values.
3.4 EU production shifted from volume to value
EU production data shows a remarkable transformation: production volumes declined 31.8% (from 1,052,353 items to 717,566 items), yet production value surged 112.2% (from €5.70 billion to €12.09 billion). This divergence—fewer units but far higher total value—suggests EU manufacturers have moved decisively upmarket, producing more sophisticated, higher-value electric vehicles while ceding the lower end of the market to imports, particularly from China. Germany remained the largest producing country with a 29.2% share of EU production value, followed by Italy (13.9%) and France (12.3%).
Reporters – imports and exports
3.5 Market concentration and specialisation patterns
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose from 3,068 to 3,683 by value (+20.0%), indicating that the import market became more concentrated—largely because of China's growing dominance. Export concentration also increased, from 1,042 to 1,305 (+25.2%), though from a lower base. Among EU Member States, Sweden exhibited the highest specialisation in forklift production (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage of 0.64), followed by Finland, Italy, France, and Germany—the latter accounting for nearly 30% of EU production despite a more moderate specialisation index, reflecting its sheer industrial scale.
Trade intensity | Export propensity
Conclusion
The EU forklift truck market over 2015–2025 has been defined by three intersecting dynamics: the surge of Chinese imports reshaping the competitive landscape, the geopolitical disruption caused by the closure of the Russian market, and the accelerating transition from internal-combustion to electric-powered vehicles. Despite these shifts, the EU has maintained its position as a net exporter, with its trade surplus actually widening in absolute terms. However, the character of that surplus has changed: EU producers have moved upmarket, producing fewer but more valuable units, while lower-cost imports—led by China and increasingly by Southeast Asian producers—have filled domestic demand at the lower end. The electric transition is the thread running through nearly every metric, from production volumes and unit prices to the composition of both imports and exports. Going forward, the concentration of import supply in China, rising trade intensity, and the sector's increasing export dependence on a handful of partners (the UK and US together absorb nearly half of EU exports) represent both opportunities and vulnerabilities that merit continued monitoring.