Market evolution: Forklift trucks (CN 842720) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in CN 842720 — self-propelled trucks fitted with lifting or handling equipment, not powered by an electric motor — over the period 2015–2025. The product heading encompasses three subcategories: rough-terrain fork-lift trucks (84272011), other works trucks with a lifting height of at least one metre (84272090), and works trucks with a lifting height below one metre (84272090). The EU has remained a consistent net exporter of these machines throughout the period, but the decade has brought notable structural shifts: import growth has far outpaced export growth in value terms, trade partners have been reshuffled by geopolitical events, and the unit economics of EU trade have changed markedly. The overview dashboard provides the full data underlying the analysis below.

1. A Widening Import Base While the Surplus Narrows in Relative Terms

EU exports grew in value but stagnated in weight

Over 2015–2025, EU exports of CN 842720 rose from €1,437 million to €1,954 million (+36.0 %), reaching a peak of €2,391 million in 2023. In tonnage, however, exports barely moved — from 265,459 t to 268,157 t (+1.0 %). The implied average export price per tonne therefore climbed from €5,414 to €7,287 (+34.6 %), indicating that the value increase was almost entirely driven by price inflation rather than higher physical volumes.

Imports nearly doubled in value, driven by both volume and price

EU imports grew far more steeply: value rose from €506 million to €998 million (+97.3 %), and tonnage from 130,848 t to 198,965 t (+52.1 %). The import unit price also increased, from €3,867/t to €5,017/t (+29.8 %). The combination of a 52 % volume expansion and a 30 % price increase explains the near-doubling of the import bill.

Source: trade overview

The trade surplus persisted but shrank in relative terms

The EU's trade surplus remained positive throughout — rising slightly from €931 million to €956 million — but the net import reliance indicator shows that imports grew from 14.3 % of exports in 2015 to 66.3 % in 2025. The EU thus remains a strong net exporter, but the gap has narrowed considerably: the surplus hit its lowest relative point in 2023 (−74.5 % net import reliance) before partially recovering.

Trade intensity and export propensity roughly doubled

The EU's trade intensity (imports + exports as a share of production value) climbed from 37.5 % to 73.6 %, and export propensity (exports as a share of production value) rose from 27.9 % to 66.5 %. These figures point to an increasingly outward-oriented EU industry in this product category.

2. Reoriented Trade Partnerships: The Rise of Türkiye and China, the Decline of Russia

The United Kingdom remained the dominant trade partner on both sides

The UK was the EU's largest export destination throughout the period (€360 million in 2015, €394 million in 2025, +9.2 %) and also the largest import source, surging from €282 million to €576 million (+104.6 %). The post-Brexit reclassification of UK–EU trade as external trade from 2021 onward partly explains the jump in the UK's reported import share. The partner dashboard shows the full partner breakdown.

Türkiye emerged as the fastest-growing export market

EU exports to Türkiye exploded from €49 million to €229 million (+368.1 %), making it the fourth-largest export destination by 2025. This surge is consistent with Türkiye's rapid industrialisation and logistics-sector expansion over the decade. The volatility coefficient for this corridor (0.66) is among the highest for export partners, indicating pronounced year-on-year swings.

China's role as an import supplier nearly tripled

EU imports from China grew from €120 million to €296 million (+145.6 %), making China the second-largest import source. This reflects China's growing capacity in industrial vehicle manufacturing and its competitive pricing. The import concentration HHI for value rose from 3,805 to 4,283 (+12.6 %), confirming that import supply became somewhat more concentrated around a few key partners (notably the UK and China).

Russian exports collapsed after 2022

EU exports to Russia fell from €53 million in 2015 to €16 million in 2025 (−70.5 %), with a peak of €107 million in 2019 followed by a sharp decline after the imposition of EU sanctions. Ukraine, by contrast, grew from €15 million to €47 million (+217.6 %), likely reflecting reconstruction and military logistics demand.

Source: top partners by value

France and Italy consolidated their positions as the EU's specialised exporters

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows France with a Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) of 0.50 and Italy at 0.28, confirming a strong specialisation in non-electric forklift trucks. France alone accounted for 23.7 % of EU production in this product category and was the top EU exporter (€577 million). Within the EU, Poland saw the most dramatic export growth among reporting members, rising from €10 million to €124 million (+1,117 %), signalling the emergence of new Central European production hubs.

3. Structural Transformation: Fewer Vehicles, Higher Unit Values, and Price Shocks

EU production shifted toward fewer but more valuable units

According to production data, the number of CN 842720 units produced in the EU fell from 80,079 to approximately 60,000 (−25.1 %), while the production value rose from €2,507 million to €3,600 million (+43.6 %). The implied average production value per unit therefore more than doubled, climbing from roughly €31,300 to €60,000. This is consistent with a shift toward higher-specification, more expensive machines — likely reflecting the integration of advanced hydraulics, telematics, and safety features, as well as general inflation.

Export unit values diverged sharply between mass-based and piece-based measures

The supplementary (per-unit) export price fell from €26,563 per piece to €10,300 per piece (−61.2 %), while the mass-based price rose from €5,414/t to €7,287/t (+34.6 %). This apparent paradox is partly explained by a significant increase in the supplementary unit count (from 54,111 to 189,713 pieces, +250.6 %) while tonnage remained flat. The discrepancy likely reflects a shift in the product mix toward lighter, lower-lifting-height trucks (particularly the sub-1-metre category, 84272090, whose export volume rose from 20,229 t to 19,911 t but whose supplementary unit price climbed from €4,523 to €8,086 per piece). Inconsistencies in how EU member states report supplementary units may also contribute to the divergence.

The sub-1-metre category gained weight in imports

Within the import breakdown by sub-product, the dominant category 84272019 (works trucks ≥ 1 m) accounted for €766 million in 2025, up from €337 million in 2015. Meanwhile, 84272090 (lifting height < 1 m) saw its import value rise from €55 million to €63 million, and its tonnage increase from 14,486 t to 19,350 t. The product segment breakdown shows this subcategory's import price per tonne remained broadly stable around €3,200–3,900, suggesting it competes more on volume than on value-added.

A major price shock hit UK-sourced imports in 2023

The shock detection identified a pronounced price shock in imports from the United Kingdom in 2023: the import price per tonne jumped by 53.3 % with an abnormality score of 18.2, affecting a flow that represented 62.6 % of total import value. This coincides with the post-Brexit trade adjustment period and likely reflects a combination of sterling revaluation, changed rules of origin, and supply-chain restructuring. Smaller price shocks were also detected in EU exports to Morocco (+46.6 %) and Türkiye (+31.7 %) in the same year.

Volatility varied substantially across partners

The coefficient of variation for import flows was highest for Canada (1.96) and South Africa (0.80), while the most stable import sources were Switzerland (0.13) and Norway (0.17). On the export side, the most volatile corridors were Türkiye (0.66) and Russia (0.43), while Switzerland (0.09) and Serbia (0.14) showed the most stability. These patterns suggest that EU trade in non-electric forklifts is anchored by a small number of stable, high-volume corridors (UK, US, Norway, Switzerland) while more peripheral partners experience significant year-to-year variation.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU maintained its position as a net exporter of non-electric self-propelled lifting trucks, but the market underwent significant structural change. Export value grew by 36 % — entirely through price increases rather than higher tonnage — while imports nearly doubled, driven by both volume growth (especially from China and the UK) and rising unit prices. The trade surplus narrowed in relative terms as import reliance climbed from 14 % to 66 % of export value. Geopolitical shifts reshaped trade partnerships: Russia's share collapsed post-2022, Türkiye and Ukraine emerged as fast-growing export markets, and China consolidated its role as a major import supplier. Domestically, EU production moved decisively toward fewer but more valuable units, with an implied per-unit production value that roughly doubled. The 2023 UK import price shock stands out as the most significant market disruption in the period. Looking ahead, the continued global transition toward electric-powered equipment (CN 842710) represents a structural headwind for the non-electric segment examined here, even as the current data shows the category remains commercially significant.