Market evolution: Fir and spruce (CN 440712) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the EU's external trade in fir and spruce sawnwood (Combined Nomenclature code 440712) over the period 2017–2025, the data window available after excluding incomplete years. CN 440712 covers Abies spp. and Picea spp. sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, of a thickness exceeding 6 mm, excluding the S-P-F (spruce–pine–fir) grouping specific to North American trade. The product bundles three sub-categories: basic sawn wood (44071290), planed wood (44071220), and end-jointed wood (44071210).

The EU is a major global producer and a pronounced net exporter of this commodity. Over the period, the trade balance widened from €2.4 billion in 2017 to €3.6 billion in 2025, even as import volumes contracted dramatically. Three major dynamics shaped the market: the extraordinary lumber-price boom of 2021–2022, the geopolitical reconfiguration of EU import supply chains following sanctions on Russia and Belarus, and a structural reorientation of export destinations. Each is examined in a dedicated section below.

1. The 2021–2022 Price Boom and Its Aftermath

Export values peaked at over €6 billion in 2022 despite flat or declining volumes

The most striking feature of the period is the surge in unit values that began in 2020 and climaxed in 2021–2022. EU export prices (EUR per tonne) rose from €404/t in 2017 to a peak of €676/t in 2022 (+67% from the starting level), before retreating to €568/t in 2025. Because volumes remained broadly in the 6.9–9.5 million tonne range, this price effect drove export value to a record €6.04 billion in 2022—double the 2017 level. By 2025, value had settled back to €3.90 billion as prices normalised and volumes edged lower.

Source: General Overview — trade

Import prices followed a similar arc but from a lower base

EU import prices (EUR/t) climbed from €303/t in 2017 to a peak of €544/t in 2022, settling at €501/t by 2025—a cumulative increase of +65%. However, the import side tells a fundamentally different story: volumes collapsed, so rising prices merely cushioned what would have been an even steeper decline in import value. Import value fell from €628 million in 2017 to €334 million in 2025 (−47%).

The 2021 price shock was extreme by historical standards

Shock detection reveals that the most abnormal price movements occurred in 2021. The analysis of supply shocks identifies three pronounced export-price shocks centred on 2021:

The near-doubling of export prices to the United Kingdom—the EU's single largest market, accounting for nearly a third of export value—illustrates the breadth and severity of the 2021–2022 price dislocation. This was a global phenomenon driven by post-pandemic construction demand, supply-chain disruptions, and speculative inventory building.

2. The Collapse of Eastern European Import Supply Chains

Russia's share of EU imports fell from dominance to near zero

The most dramatic structural shift on the import side was the disappearance of Russian supply. In 2017, imports from Russia stood at €342 million—making the Russian Federation by far the EU's largest extra-EU supplier. By 2025, this had fallen to a negligible €4,191, a decline of essentially −100%. The peak was reached in 2018 at €705 million. The decline accelerated from 2022 onward as EU sanctions in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine progressively restricted timber imports.

Belarus also contracted, while Ukraine remained relatively stable

Belarus experienced a parallel decline—from €122 million at its peak to €60 million in 2025 (−5.2% vs. 2017, but −51% from peak)—consistent with sanctions also targeting Belarusian timber. Ukraine saw a more moderate decline of −33% (from €77 million to €52 million), partly reflecting wartime disruption but also the pre-existing smaller scale of its trade.

Total EU import volumes contracted by 68%

The combined effect was a collapse in total import volumes from 2.07 million tonnes in 2017 to 667 thousand tonnes in 2025 (−68%). In supplementary-unit terms (cubic metres), the decline was from 4.38 million m³ to 1.80 million m³ (−59%). Norway and Switzerland partially filled the gap, but could not compensate for the sheer scale of lost Eastern European supply:

Source: Top partners — imports

Import concentration remained elevated despite diversification attempts

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value stood at 4,162 at its peak (when Russia dominated) and fell to 3,191 by 2025—still well above the 2,500 threshold that typically signals a highly concentrated market. This indicates that while the loss of Russia reduced concentration, the EU's extra-EU import base remains narrow, with Norway now the single dominant supplier.

The import side is dominated by unprocessed sawnwood

Across all years, sub-category 44071290 (basic sawn, not planed or end-jointed) accounts for the overwhelming share of import volume—from 1.97 million tonnes in 2017 down to 569 thousand tonnes in 2025. Planed imports (44071220) grew modestly from 45,000 t to 89,000 t, and end-jointed imports (44071210) shrank from 55,000 t to 9,000 t. The collapse is therefore overwhelmingly a story of basic sawn timber from Eastern Europe.

3. Shifting Export Destinations and Intra-EU Specialisation

The United Kingdom remained the EU's anchor market

Despite Brexit and all the price volatility of the period, the United Kingdom consistently absorbed the largest share of EU fir/spruce exports—rising from €727 million in 2017 to €1.11 billion in 2025 (+53%). The UK market is also the least volatile export destination, with a coefficient of variation of just 0.057—the lowest among all tracked partners—underscoring its structural importance.

US exports boomed during the price spike but proved cyclical

Exports to the United States surged from €264 million in 2017 to a spectacular peak of €1.66 billion in 2022, driven by the North American lumber shortage, before falling back to €737 million in 2025 (+179% vs. 2017 but −56% from peak). The high coefficient of variation (0.40) confirms the procyclical and speculative character of this corridor.

Chinese demand contracted sharply

Exports to China fell from €460 million in 2017 to €126 million in 2025 (−73%). The decline was already underway before the pandemic and accelerated as China's property sector weakened from 2021 onward. This contrasts with the relative stability of exports to Japan (€435 million → €383 million, −12%), which remained a dependable, low-volatility market (CV = 0.16).

Middle Eastern and North African markets expanded significantly

A noteworthy structural trend is the growing importance of MENA destinations. Saudi Arabia imports of EU fir/spruce doubled from €104 million to €219 million (+110%), Algeria more than doubled from €67 million to €147 million (+117%), and Egypt grew from €47 million to €73 million (+55%). Collectively, these three markets now represent over €439 million in annual export value—more than China and approaching Japan.

Nordic and Alpine Member States dominate EU production and exports

At the Member-State level, Sweden was the largest exporter throughout (€893 million → €1.29 billion, +45%), followed by Finland (€620 million → €529 million, −15%) and Germany (€386 million → €624 million, +61%). Austria, Romania, Slovenia, and Latvia each contributed between €140 million and €345 million in export value.

The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 confirms the expected geography: Finland (RSCA = 0.87), Sweden (0.78), Latvia (0.77), and Austria (0.77) are the most specialised producers, while Southern and Western Member States such as Hungary, Greece, Spain, and Portugal show negligible specialisation. EU production stood at 53.4 million m³ in 2025, down from 56.4 million m³ in 2017 (−5.4%), with production value declining more steeply by 25.4% to €13.0 billion—reflecting the normalisation of prices from their 2021–2022 peak.

Conclusion

The EU fir and spruce sawnwood market over 2017–2025 was shaped by three intersecting forces. First, the global lumber-price boom of 2021–2022 temporarily doubled export values to over €6 billion, with extreme price shocks reaching 92% year-on-year increases for the UK market alone. Second, sanctions on Russia and Belarus effectively severed what had been the EU's largest source of imports, reducing total extra-EU import volumes by 68% and leaving the import market more concentrated than before (HHI of 3,191), with Norway as the emerging dominant supplier. Third, a geographical reorientation of exports is underway: the UK market proved remarkably stable (CV of 0.06), the US market proved lucrative but volatile, Chinese demand contracted structurally, and MENA markets—particularly Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Egypt—emerged as a meaningful new growth axis.

Overall, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter. The net import reliance ratio improved from −44.3% to −38.9%, reflecting the sharper decline in imports relative to exports. The trade intensity of the sector, while still high at 32%, has moderated from 37% in 2017—suggesting a slight decoupling from extra-EU markets as domestic consumption patterns and import substitution evolve. The coming years will test whether the EU can maintain its export competitiveness as prices stabilise at lower levels and as the loss of Eastern European supply permanently reshapes the internal balance between production and consumption.