Market evolution: Other sawn wood (CN 440799) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in CN code 440799 — a residual category covering sawn wood of thickness above 6 mm that is not classified as tropical, coniferous, oak, beech, maple, cherry, ash, birch, or poplar/aspen. This heterogeneous product group encompasses a range of temperate broadleaf species and processed wood products. Over the period 2015–2025, the EU market for this commodity has undergone a pronounced contraction in trade volumes, a dramatic reorientation of supply sources — driven in large part by geopolitical shocks — and a sharp rise in unit values. The EU has shifted from a position of moderate import dependence toward near trade balance, with significant implications for market structure and concentration. The analysis draws on trade data reported by the EU and is structured around three principal findings.

1. A Dramatic Contraction of Extra-EU Trade Volumes

Import volumes collapsed far more steeply than export volumes

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the sheer magnitude of trade decline on the import side. EU extra-EU imports fell from 821,450 tonnes in 2015 to just 72,466 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 91.2% in mass terms. Over the same period, EU extra-EU exports declined from 369,046 tonnes to 146,581 tonnes (−60.3%). In supplementary volumetric units (cubic metres), import volumes contracted from 2.15 million m³ to 576,517 m³ (−73.2%), while export volumes fell from 1.44 million m³ to 505,602 m³ (−64.9%).

The trade deficit nearly vanished

Because imports fell much faster than exports, the EU's trade deficit in this product shrank from approximately €116 million in 2015 to under €7 million in 2025 — a 94.2% improvement toward balance. This trend reflects both a genuine reduction in the EU's demand for externally sourced sawn wood of this type and a possible substitution toward intra-EU sourcing or alternative species classified under other CN codes.

EU domestic production also declined but held up better in value terms

According to available production data, EU production volume (measured in m³) declined from 7.13 million m³ to 5.40 million m³ (−24.3%), while production value held relatively steady, moving from €1.99 billion to €2.08 billion (+4.3%). This divergence signals a strong increase in domestic unit values, consistent with the broader inflationary trend seen in traded prices.

The share of raw sawn wood dominates both trade flows

Across all years, the sub-segment 44079990 (raw sawn wood, not planed, sanded, or end-jointed) accounts for the vast majority of both import and export volumes. In 2025, this sub-line represented 66,180 tonnes of imports (91% of total import mass) and 138,188 tonnes of exports (94% of export mass). The processed sub-segments — 44079927 (planed/end-jointed) and 44079940 (sanded) — are considerably smaller, though 44079927 maintained meaningful export volumes until 2023 before declining sharply.

2. Geopolitical Disruptions Redrew the Supplier Map

The loss of Russian and Ukrainian supply was a pivotal shock

Among the top import partners, the most dramatic changes came from the two countries most directly affected by the Russia–Ukraine conflict:

• Russian Federation: imports fell from €18.8 million to €0.5 million (−97.5%), reflecting EU sanctions on Russian wood products imposed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The coefficient of variation for Russian import values over the period was 1.47, among the highest of any supplier — evidence of extreme instability.
• Ukraine: imports dropped from €7.4 million to €1.3 million (−82.9%), likely reflecting the disruption of Ukrainian forestry and logistics capacity.

Together, the loss of these two suppliers accounts for approximately €24 million in annual import value that was not replaced elsewhere.

Brazil also experienced a steep decline, while Uruguay surged

• Brazil saw imports fall from €31.9 million to €4.9 million (−84.5%). Brazil had been the third-largest supplier in 2015, but its share was nearly eliminated by 2025.
• Uruguay was the sole major supplier to record substantial growth: imports rose from €3.0 million to €12.4 million (+315.8%). Uruguay's low coefficient of variation (0.50) suggests relatively stable supply, making it an increasingly reliable partner.

The United States remained the largest supplier but with reduced volumes

The United States held its position as the top extra-EU supplier throughout the period, but still saw import values decline from €72.4 million to €41.4 million (−42.8%). The stability of US supply (CV of 1.06, moderate by the standards of this market) likely reflects established commercial relationships and product quality standards.

The EU's import supply became significantly more concentrated

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value more than doubled, from 1,213 to 2,636 (+117.4%). This moves the market from a moderately concentrated structure into one that would typically be considered highly concentrated. As smaller and geopolitically disrupted suppliers exited, the remaining trade became increasingly dependent on fewer partners — principally the United States, Uruguay, and Belarus.

Baltic Member States bore the brunt of export contraction

Among EU Member State exporters, the Baltic states experienced the largest absolute and relative declines:

Latvia remained the EU's single largest exporter throughout the period, benefiting from high specialisation (RSCA of 0.97). However, the collapse of Estonian and Lithuanian exports — both heavily oriented toward non-EU markets — significantly reduced the EU's overall export capacity.

3. Rising Prices and Increasing Market Autonomy

Unit values surged across all trade flows

A persistent feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic rise in unit prices, measured both per tonne and per cubic metre:

The most extreme price increase occurred on the import side in mass-based terms. This partly reflects a compositional effect: as cheap, high-volume suppliers (Russia, Brazil, Ukraine) exited, the remaining imports skewed toward higher-value products. The sub-line data confirms this: the raw sawn wood sub-line (44079990) saw its import price per tonne rise from €714 (2017) to €1,165 (2025), while planed/end-jointed wood (44079927) climbed from €331 (2015) to €1,595 (2025).

The EU moved decisively toward net export status

The net import reliance ratio shifted from −19.5% in 2015 to −35.0% in 2025 (negative values indicate net exporter status). This 80% increase in the negative ratio means the EU became significantly more self-sufficient and more of a net exporter in this product category. The export propensity also increased from 43.0% to 47.3%, while trade intensity remained broadly stable at around 55–57%. The vulnerability analysis confirms that export propensity is the most salient metric for this product, with a salience score of 12.7.

Supply-side volatility intensified among non-traditional partners

The volatility analysis reveals that several smaller import suppliers exhibited extremely high coefficients of variation — Suriname (2.48), Gabon (2.01), Cameroon (1.83) — indicating episodic, unreliable trade relationships. On the export side, price shocks were detected in EU exports to Egypt (2022, +37.2% price shift, abnormality score 234.7), Morocco (2017, +478.9% shift), and South Korea (2021, +61.5% shift). These events likely reflect spot-market disruptions or shifts in product mix rather than sustained structural changes.

Market concentration rose on both the import and export sides

The HHI for import concentration by value rose from 1,213 to 2,636, while the export HHI increased from 1,247 to 1,924 (+54.2%). This growing concentration on both sides suggests a market that is becoming less diversified and potentially more vulnerable to disruption from any single partner or exporter.

Conclusion

The EU market for other sawn wood (CN 440799) has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Extra-EU import volumes have collapsed by over 90% in mass terms, driven principally by the loss of Russian and Brazilian supply, the disruption of Ukrainian exports, and a broader decline in import demand. Export volumes also contracted, though less severely, with Baltic Member States experiencing the steepest drops. Unit values have risen sharply — particularly on the import side — reflecting both compositional shifts and broader inflationary pressures in wood markets. The EU has moved from a modest trade deficit to near balance, with the net import reliance ratio indicating an increasingly self-sufficient position. However, this transition has come at the cost of significantly higher market concentration, with fewer partners accounting for larger shares of remaining trade. Policymakers and market participants should monitor whether this concentration poses resilience risks, particularly as geopolitical uncertainties affecting traditional suppliers in Eastern Europe and Latin America remain unresolved.