Market evolution: Planed fir and spruce lumber (CN 44071220) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in planed fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.) lumber — customs code 44071220 — over the period 2017–2025, for which complete annual data are available. The European Union is a major net exporter of this product, and the period under review has been shaped by three powerful dynamics: a spectacular boom-and-correction cycle in prices and volumes around 2021–2022, a dramatic geopolitical reshuffling of trade partners, and a structural shift towards greater export concentration. The EU trade surplus for this product grew from €1.23 billion in 2017 to over €2.02 billion in 2025 (+64%), despite a post-boom correction that brought volumes and prices down from their 2022 peaks.
1. The 2021–2022 Lumber Boom: Extraordinary Price and Volume Surges Followed by a Correction
The most striking feature of the decade under review is the sharp boom in EU exports of planed fir and spruce lumber centred on 2021–2022, followed by a significant correction in 2023–2025. This boom was driven by a confluence of pandemic-era construction demand, supply-chain disruptions, and a broader global timber price spike.
Export values nearly tripled at their peak before retreating
EU export value for CN 44071220 reached a maximum of €3.42 billion in 2022, more than 2.7 times the 2017 level of €1.25 billion. By 2025, values had corrected to €2.07 billion, still 65.9% above the starting point. Export volumes in tonnes followed a similar arc, rising from 2.55 million tonnes in 2017 to a peak of 4.10 million tonnes in 2022 (+60.9%) before settling at 3.15 million tonnes in 2025. In supplementary volume terms (cubic metres), the pattern is identical: from 5.24 million m³ to a peak of 9.23 million m³, then back to 7.44 million m³.
Unit prices spiked dramatically in 2021–2022
The price dimension of the boom was even more pronounced. EU export unit prices rose from €489 per tonne in 2017 to a peak of €855 per tonne — a 75% increase at the maximum. By 2025, the price had retreated to €658 per tonne, still 34.5% above the 2017 baseline. Price shock analysis confirms that the most significant abnormal price movements occurred precisely in 2021, with price shock events detected for exports to the United Kingdom (abnormality score of 73.6, +89.4% price shift), Australia (abnormality 26.1, +95.3% shift), and Japan (abnormality 9.9, +55.0% shift). These anomalies are consistent with the global lumber price spike of 2021, which was driven by surging North American and European construction demand during the post-pandemic recovery, compounded by sawmill capacity constraints and logistics bottlenecks.
EU production volumes and values declined over the period
Despite the trade boom, underlying EU production of planed fir and spruce lumber actually declined slightly in volume (from 56.4 million m³ to 53.4 million m³, −5.4%) and substantially in value (from €17.4 billion to €13.0 billion, −25.4%). This divergence — rising export values alongside declining production values — suggests that the period was characterised by a favourable external demand environment that partially offset weaker domestic fundamentals, and that the post-2022 correction may reflect a return to more structural conditions.
2. Geopolitical Reorientation: Shifting Partners and Supply-Chain Realignment
The 2017–2025 period saw a fundamental reshuffling of both the EU's export destinations and its import sources, driven in part by geopolitical events (notably the Russia–Ukraine conflict and associated sanctions) and in part by evolving trade patterns in the global timber market.
The United States emerged as a major growth market for EU exports
The most dramatic shift among export partners was the surge in EU exports to the United States, which grew from €220 million in 2017 to a peak of €1.47 billion in 2022 before correcting to €708 million in 2025 — a cumulative increase of 221.2%. This reflects the intense US demand for imported softwood during the North American lumber shortage of 2020–2022. The United Kingdom remained the single largest export destination throughout, growing from €464 million to €775 million (+67.2%), peaking at €1.17 billion in 2022. Meanwhile, exports to China collapsed by 82.7%, falling from €67.8 million to just €11.7 million, likely reflecting China's shifting sourcing strategies and domestic market dynamics.
Russian imports to the EU effectively ceased after 2022
On the import side, the most consequential development was the near-total collapse of imports from the Russian Federation, which fell from €6.2 million in 2017 to just €4,191 in 2025 — a decline of 99.9%. This is consistent with EU sanctions on Russian timber products following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Russia had previously peaked at €17.1 million in import value, meaning the effective elimination of this source represented a significant supply-side disruption. In contrast, Norway emerged as the dominant import source, with imports surging from €4.0 million to €32.8 million (+724.6%), concentrating EU import dependency on a smaller number of partners. The United Kingdom also grew as an import source (from €4.4 million to €14.9 million, +237.1%), while Switzerland and Ukraine both declined.
The net trade surplus widened, confirming the EU's structural export orientation
The EU trade balance for planed fir and spruce remained strongly positive throughout the period. The net import reliance stayed consistently negative (between −44.3% and −38.9%), confirming that the EU is a net exporter and that imports represent a small fraction of total trade. The slight improvement (less negative net reliance) from −44.3% to −38.9% reflects the faster growth of imports relative to exports over the full period — though this is partly an artefact of imports starting from a much smaller base.
3. Concentration, Specialisation, and the Resilience of Nordic and Baltic Producers
The market structure data reveal important shifts in which EU member states drive this trade, with growing concentration both in export destinations and among the EU's own producing and exporting members.
Sweden, Germany, and the Nordics dominate EU exports
The leading EU exporters of planed fir and spruce lumber in 2025 were:
| Member State | 2017 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 569.2 | 992.2 | +74.3% |
| Germany | 166.9 | 464.0 | +178.0% |
| Austria | 158.2 | 125.5 | −20.7% |
| Finland | 105.7 | 149.6 | +41.5% |
| Romania | 102.1 | 62.7 | −38.6% |
| Latvia | 53.8 | 100.0 | +85.9% |
| Czechia | 14.4 | 42.5 | +195.1% |
Sweden's dominance is underpinned by its exceptional specialisation: it has an RSCA (revealed symmetric comparative advantage) of 0.905 and an RCA of 20.05, far ahead of any other member state. Latvia (RSCA 0.822), Estonia (0.772), and Finland (0.710) also show strong specialisation. In contrast, large economies like Italy (RSCA −0.913), Spain (−0.989), and Hungary (−1.000) are essentially non-specialised in this product, with negligible export shares.
Export concentration increased, reflecting market consolidation
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports by partner rose from 2,198 to 2,741 (+24.7%), indicating moderately increased concentration of exports towards fewer destination countries. On the import side, the increase was far more dramatic: the import HHI surged from 2,190 to 4,707 (+115%), reflecting the disappearance of Russia and the growing dominance of Norway as a source. An HHI above 2,500 is typically considered to indicate a highly concentrated market, meaning that EU imports of this product are now structurally dependent on a very narrow set of suppliers.
Trade intensity and export propensity declined modestly
Despite the boom, trade intensity (exports as a share of production) declined from 37.1% to 31.8%, and export propensity fell from 34.7% to 30.2%. Both metrics fell by about 13–15%. This suggests that while the EU's absolute export volumes grew, domestic consumption absorbed a growing share of production, or that production adjustments meant the export-to-production ratio narrowed in the post-boom environment. Nevertheless, the EU remains a significant global exporter, and its trade openness for this product remains substantial at over 30%.
Conclusion
The EU market for planed fir and spruce lumber (CN 44071220) over the 2017–2025 period has been defined by three overarching dynamics. First, the extraordinary 2021–2022 lumber boom — driven by pandemic-era demand surges and supply disruptions — pushed export values to €3.4 billion and unit prices to €855/tonne, before a correction brought the market back to more sustainable levels. Second, geopolitical upheaval reshaped the trade map: Russian imports effectively ceased after 2022, Norway consolidated its position as the EU's primary external supplier, and the United States emerged as a major growth market alongside the traditional UK destination. Third, the market showed increasing concentration on both the export and import sides, with Nordic and Baltic producers — especially Sweden — reinforcing their comparative advantage, while import dependency narrowed towards fewer suppliers. Despite the boom-and-bust cycle, the EU's structural position as a major net exporter was preserved and even strengthened in absolute terms, with the trade surplus reaching over €2 billion by 2025.