Market evolution: Exercise equipment (CN 95069190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the EU's external trade in articles and equipment for general physical exercise, gymnastics, or athletics (Combined Nomenclature code 95069190) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The EU market for this category of sports goods has shown substantial growth, but with distinct trends in imports and exports that have reshaped its trade profile. Key dynamics include a significant expansion in import volumes and values, a persistent and widening trade deficit, a strong concentration of imports from China, and evolving production and specialization patterns within the EU. This analysis is based on the provided trade data and aims to interpret these observable trends.

1. Significant Market Expansion Accompanied by a Widening Trade Deficit

The EU's trade in exercise equipment experienced robust growth between 2015 and 2025, with both imports and exports increasing in value. However, the growth of imports far outpaced that of exports, leading to a substantial deterioration in the trade balance.

1.1. The EU Market Grew on Both Sides but Import Growth Dominated

Over the eleven-year period, the value of EU imports from non-EU countries grew by 96.3%, rising from €598.3 million in 2015 to €1.175 billion in 2025. This growth was driven by a remarkable 109.6% increase in import quantity (from 216,671 tonnes to 454,058 tonnes), while the average import price slightly decreased by 6.3%. Meanwhile, EU exports to non-EU countries grew by 63.9% in value, from €218.0 million to €357.3 million. This was supported by a 32.2% increase in quantity and a 24.0% rise in average export price, indicating a possible shift towards higher-value exports. The full trade statistics can be viewed here.

1.2. The Trade Deficit Deepened Substantially

The strong import growth directly impacted the EU's trade balance. The trade deficit in this product category widened by 114.9%, from -€380.3 million in 2015 to -€817.3 million in 2025. The deficit was at its most pronounced in 2021, reaching approximately -€1.113 billion. This trend underscores a growing reliance on external suppliers to meet EU demand for these goods.

2. Structural Shifts in Supply and Domestic Production

The market expansion was characterized by a high concentration of imports from a single major supplier and a distinct evolution of the EU's internal production and export specialization.

2.1. China Solidified Its Position as the Dominant Import Source

China is the overwhelmingly largest source of imports for the EU in this product category. In 2025, imports from China were valued at €966.6 million, representing a 133.2% increase from 2015 and accounting for the vast majority of import growth. This dominance is reflected in the rising concentration of imports (HHI increasing from 5,012 to 6,902 over the period), as detailed in the concentration metrics. Other significant, though smaller, import sources include Taiwan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Table: Top EU Import Partners by Value (2025)

2.2. EU Exports Diversified and Grew in Key Western Markets

While imports were concentrated from Asia, EU exports were more geographically diversified and grew significantly in several Western markets. The United Kingdom remained the largest export destination (€46.0 million), followed by the United States (€38.9 million). The most dynamic growth was recorded in exports to Switzerland (+84.8%), Norway (+88.4%), and notably China (+695.7%). The top EU exporting Member States in 2025 included Italy, Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands, as shown in the reporters data.

2.3. Domestic Production Grew and Became More Specialized

EU domestic production value increased by 74.6% over the available data window, from €621.2 million to €1.084 billion. Specialization analysis for 2025 reveals that certain Member States, such as Bulgaria and Finland, have developed a strong comparative advantage (high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage - RSCA) in producing these goods. Conversely, countries like Cyprus, Malta, and Ireland show a comparative disadvantage. This indicates a reshaping of the internal EU production landscape, which can be further explored in the specialisation data.

3. Trade Dynamics Marked by Volatility and Policy-Relevant Metrics

The trade flows for this product category are not uniformly stable, and certain indicators point to its growing significance for EU industrial policy and supply chain resilience discussions.

3.1. Trade Flows Exhibited Varying Degrees of Volatility

Analysis of the coefficient of variation (CV) shows that import and export relationships with different partners exhibit different levels of price and volume stability. For instance, imports from Tunisia (CV 0.80) and Ukraine (CV 0.67) are highly volatile, while imports from the USA (CV 0.25) are more stable. Notably, specific trade shocks were detected, such as a major price shock in exports to the United Kingdom in 2018 (abnormality score 18.0) and a significant price shift in exports to Korea in 2018. These volatility patterns are detailed in the volatility analysis.

3.2. The EU's Net Import Reliance and Trade Intensity Increased Sharply

Key policy-related metrics highlight the sector's evolving external exposure. The net import reliance—the share of domestic consumption met by imports—rose from 34.5% in 2015 to 47.9% in 2025, peaking at 69.3% in 2021. Concurrently, the trade intensity (total trade relative to production plus imports) increased from 58.7% to 91.5%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) surged from 26.1% to 77.2%. The latter is the most salient trend, suggesting that EU producers are increasingly targeting international markets. These vulnerability indicators are crucial for assessing strategic autonomy.

Conclusion

The EU market for exercise equipment (CN 95069190) has undergone significant expansion and structural change between 2015 and 2025. While the domestic production base grew and became more specialized in certain Member States, demand growth was primarily met by a massive increase in imports, overwhelmingly sourced from China. This led to a substantially worsened trade deficit and a sharp rise in the EU's net import reliance. At the same time, EU exports, though smaller, diversified successfully into advanced economies and China, with a remarkable increase in export propensity indicating a strong outward orientation. The period was also characterized by notable trade volatility and specific supply shocks. These dynamics frame a market that is vibrant but presents policy challenges related to supply chain concentration and economic sovereignty.