Market evolution: Exercise equipment (CN 95069110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the European Union's trade in exercising apparatus with adjustable resistance mechanisms (customs code 95069110) over the 2015–2025 period. The decade was shaped by several transformative forces: the global fitness and wellness boom, COVID-19 lockdowns that triggered a surge in home exercise demand, subsequent supply-chain disruptions, and an accelerating shift in manufacturing toward Asia. The EU's trade position in this product category evolved markedly, with import dependency rising, the trade deficit widening, and a structural reorientation of sourcing away from traditional partners and toward China and emerging low-cost producers.

1. A Decade of Rapid Demand Growth, Driven Almost Entirely by Imports

EU imports more than doubled in volume, while exports grew only modestly

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU imports of exercise equipment grew from €592 million to €1,072 million (+81.1% in value), with physical volumes rising from 136,411 tonnes to 251,301 tonnes (+84.2%). By contrast, EU exports expanded from €257 million to €528 million (+105.1% in value) and from 28,044 tonnes to 42,034 tonnes (+49.9%). While exports grew faster in percentage value terms, the absolute gap between imports and exports widened considerably.

The trade deficit expanded, reaching €544 million by 2025

The EU's trade balance in exercise equipment deteriorated from −€335 million in 2015 to −€544 million in 2025, representing a 62.6% widening. The deficit peaked at −€975 million in an intermediate year, indicating that the structural gap is large and volatile. This persistent deficit reflects the EU's role as a major consuming market that relies heavily on external production to meet domestic demand.

Net import reliance climbed to nearly 48%

The net import reliance ratio — measuring the share of domestic consumption satisfied by net imports — rose from 34.5% in 2015 to 47.9% in 2025, peaking at 69.3% during the height of the pandemic-era import surge. Meanwhile, trade intensity grew from 58.7% to 91.5%, and export propensity surged from 26.1% to 77.2%, signalling that the EU's production base became significantly more export-oriented even as overall import dependency increased.

EU domestic production kept pace in value but shifted toward higher-value segments

EU production value grew from €621 million to €1,084 million (+74.6%). Crucially, while import prices remained essentially flat (from €4,340/t to €4,267/t, a decline of 1.7%), EU export prices rose from €9,174/t to €12,557/t (+36.9%). This persistent threefold price premium indicates that EU manufacturers are positioned in the premium and professional-grade segment, competing on quality, technology, and brand rather than on cost.

2. China's Dominance Intensified While New Asian Suppliers Emerged

China consolidated its position as the EU's overwhelmingly dominant supplier

China was the EU's largest import partner throughout the period. Imports from China grew from €367 million to €827 million (+125.4%), peaking at €1,142 million. China's share of EU imports rose correspondingly, and import concentration (HHI) on the import side increased from 4,325 to 6,094 (+40.9%). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered highly concentrated, and the rising trend signals growing supply-side dependency on a small number of origins.

Vietnam emerged as a significant new supplier from a negligible base

Perhaps the most striking structural shift was Vietnam's emergence as a meaningful EU supplier. Imports from Vietnam grew from a negligible €8,062 in 2015 to €21 million in 2025 — an explosive increase that reflects the broader trend of manufacturing diversification away from China. Vietnam's role as a "China+1" sourcing destination, accelerated by US-China trade tensions and EU companies seeking supply-chain resilience, is clearly visible in this product category.

Traditional suppliers (Taiwan, the UK) saw declining shares

While the United States maintained a relatively stable position (€79M → €106M, +34.2%), Taiwan saw its imports decline from €98 million to €71 million (−27.9%), and the United Kingdom fell from €35 million to €28 million (−21.0%). Taiwan's decline likely reflects the migration of manufacturing capacity to mainland China and Southeast Asia, while the UK's drop may partly reflect post-Brexit trade frictions.

EU exports diversified geographically, with strong growth in distant markets

On the export side, the EU's customer base broadened considerably:

Australia and Brazil stand out as high-growth destinations, with increases of 277% and 140% respectively, suggesting EU premium brands are gaining traction in emerging fitness markets worldwide. Export concentration (HHI) declined from 926 to 750 (−19.0%), confirming a diversification of export destinations.

3. The Pandemic Shock Reshaped Trade Patterns, and Supply Concentration Became a Structural Vulnerability

The COVID-19 period triggered an unprecedented import surge

The 2020–2021 period saw a dramatic spike in EU imports, with volume reaching 332,844 tonnes and value peaking at €1,483 million — roughly 2.5 times the 2015 level. This aligns with the well-documented lockdown-driven surge in home fitness equipment demand. The subsequent correction (imports fell back to €1,072 million by 2025) reflects a normalisation as gyms reopened and the home-exercise boom subsided.

Several EU member states experienced exceptionally strong import growth

The pandemic-era demand boom was not evenly distributed across the EU. Several member states showed extraordinary import growth over the period:

The Netherlands' position as the EU's largest importer (€334 million) is notable and likely reflects its role as a logistics hub for European distribution. Poland's extraordinary 403% growth suggests it has become both a growing consumer market and possibly a re-distribution or assembly point for the broader Central European region.

On the export side, Italy confirmed its role as the EU's production powerhouse

Italy was the EU's largest exporter, growing from €83 million to €194 million (+134.1%). Slovakia emerged as the most specialised EU producer (RCA of 3.06), followed by the Netherlands (RCA 2.08), Finland (1.43), Italy (1.42), and Hungary (1.34). Hungary's and Slovakia's positions suggest that Central European countries have developed significant manufacturing capacity, possibly as nearshoring destinations for Western European brands.

Supply-side volatility is concentrated in a few emerging partners, raising resilience concerns

The volatility analysis reveals that some of the EU's newer or smaller import sources exhibit extremely high trade volatility (coefficient of variation):

By contrast, China (CV 0.40) and the United States (CV 0.18) provide more predictable import flows. The shock analysis identified notable price shocks in 2022 affecting EU exports to South Africa (+67.8% price shift) and Morocco (+79.1% price shift), likely related to post-pandemic cost pressures and logistics disruptions.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in exercise equipment (CN 95069110) over the 2015–2025 decade tells a story of surging demand, deepening import dependency, and shifting supply geography. Domestic consumption growth has been overwhelmingly satisfied by imports, with China cementing its role as the dominant supplier and import concentration rising to historically high levels. At the same time, the EU's export-oriented production base — led by Italy, Germany, and emerging Central European manufacturers — has demonstrated resilience, growing strongly in value and diversifying into new markets such as Australia, Brazil, and the Gulf states. The pandemic period acted as a structural inflection point: it turbocharged demand, exposed supply-chain vulnerabilities, and accelerated the search for alternative sourcing (notably from Vietnam). Looking ahead, the key challenges for the EU in this sector centre on managing the risks of high import concentration on China, monitoring the reliability of emerging but volatile suppliers, and sustaining the competitive edge of European manufacturers in premium market segments where they continue to command a significant price premium.