Market evolution: Cured fish (CN 0305) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in cured fish products — encompassing dried, salted, brined, and smoked fish — under Combined Nomenclature code 0305 over the period 2015–2025. The analysis draws on trade data covering imports, exports, partner dynamics, and market structure. The decade was characterised by strong price inflation, a structural improvement in the EU's trade position, and notable shifts in both sourcing patterns and export destinations.

1. Rising values mask divergent volume trends between imports and exports

Export value surged while volumes held steady

EU exports of cured fish grew from €338.8 million in 2015 to €551.7 million in 2025, an increase of 62.8%. However, export volumes barely moved — from 39,103 tonnes to 39,313 tonnes (+0.5%). This implies that nearly all the value growth was driven by price increases: the average export unit price rose from €8,665/t to €14,033/t (+61.9%).

Imports show a mirror pattern: falling volumes, soaring values

EU imports of cured fish rose in value from €860.0 million to €1,232.2 million (+43.3%), yet import volumes declined from 156,791 tonnes to 126,912 tonnes (−19.1%). The average import price increased from €5,485/t to €9,709/t (+77.0%), an even steeper price rise than on the export side.

The trade deficit widened in nominal terms but improved structurally

The trade balance deteriorated from −€521 million to −€680 million in absolute value terms (−30.6%). However, net import reliance — measuring the share of domestic consumption satisfied by imports — collapsed dramatically from 47.1% to just 9.9% (−79.1%). This apparent paradox is explained by a surge in export propensity, which rose from 2.9% to 12.1% (+317.0%), indicating that the EU has become far more oriented towards external markets.

2. North Atlantic suppliers dominate imports while the United States and Australia drive export growth

Norway and Iceland remain the backbone of EU supply

The partner landscape for imports is heavily concentrated in North Atlantic fisheries:

Norway alone accounted for roughly 46% of non-EU imports in 2025. The most striking developments were the surge in imports from the Faroe Islands (+143.6%) and Russia (+212.8%), and the sharp decline in sourcing from the United Kingdom (−54.2%), which likely reflects the impact of Brexit-related trade frictions.

Exports shifted towards distant, high-value markets

The export partner mix evolved significantly:

The United States emerged as the EU's top export destination, with a near-tripling of value, while Australia more than doubled its intake. These trends point to successful market diversification into high-income, geographically distant markets — partly offsetting the contraction in exports to Brazil and the United Kingdom.

Import concentration declined, but export concentration rose

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value fell from 2,954 to 2,649 (−10.3%), suggesting a modest diversification of sourcing. Conversely, the export HHI rose from 1,236 to 1,802 (+45.9%), indicating growing reliance on a smaller number of key buyers — notably the United States.

3. Cod-based products underpin imports while smoked salmon powers the export engine

Smoked salmon dominates the EU export basket

Looking at product-level export data, smoked salmon (CN 030541) was by far the leading export category:

Smoked salmon represented approximately 78% of the EU's total cured-fish export value in 2025. Its price per tonne (€20,649) was among the highest of any segment, reflecting the premium positioning of this product category. Export volumes of smoked salmon grew from 13,018 tonnes in 2015 to 20,873 tonnes in 2025 (+60%), a rare case where both volume and value expanded.

Cod products form the backbone of imports

On the import side, cod-related products dominated:

Together, cod-related codes (030551, 030562, and Gadidae fillets under 030532) accounted for over €940 million — roughly 76% of total cured-fish imports. This reflects the EU's structural dependence on North Atlantic cod supply, which is heavily sourced from Norway, Iceland, and the Faroe Islands.

Prices climbed steeply across all major segments

Across both imports and exports, unit prices roughly doubled over the decade. Import prices for dried cod (030551) rose from €7,377/t to €14,965/t (+103%), while export prices for the same segment increased from €6,727/t to €14,282/t (+112%). These increases likely reflect a combination of tightening cod quotas, rising energy and processing costs, and broader global food-price inflation — factors that accelerated in 2022 following the Ukraine crisis and supply-chain disruptions.

Poland emerged as a major EU exporter

Among EU Member States, Poland's export growth was extraordinary — rising from €21.1 million to €142.2 million (+573.6%). Poland's comparative advantage in this sector (RSCA of 0.69) suggests that Polish processors have capitalised on cost-effective production and proximity to both Baltic/North Sea raw material and EU export markets. Lithuania, Sweden, Latvia, and Denmark also display strong specialisation indices.

Conclusion

The EU cured-fish market underwent a significant structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. While nominal trade values grew on both sides of the ledger, the headline figures conceal a fundamental shift: the EU reduced its import dependence (net import reliance fell from 47% to 10%) and tripled its export propensity. Volume trends told a more nuanced story — imports fell by 19% while exports stagnated — with price inflation accounting for most of the value growth. The market remains heavily concentrated in cod products on the import side and smoked salmon on the export side, with North Atlantic suppliers (Norway, Iceland, Faroe Islands) and high-income distant markets (United States, Australia) playing central roles. Looking ahead, continued quota pressures on cod stocks, geopolitical risks to Russian supply, and the post-Brexit trade environment will be key variables shaping the next phase of this market's evolution.