Market evolution: Salted cod (CN 030562) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in salted cod (customs code 030562, covering Gadus morhua, Gadus ogac, and Gadus macrocephalus, salted or in brine only, excluding fillets and offal) over the period 2015–2025. The EU is a net importer of this product, with imports vastly exceeding exports in both volume and value. The period under review saw significant structural shifts: import volumes contracted while import values soared; EU domestic production declined in quantity but grew in value; and export patterns were reshaped by the emergence of new destination markets. These dynamics reflect broader trends in global seafood supply chains, including tightening supply from traditional North Atlantic sources, rising raw material costs, and evolving demand patterns.

The analysis draws on trade data from the EU Trade Dashboard, covering both the EU's extra-EU trade flows and domestic production figures.

1. The Price Squeeze: Import Values Rise While Volumes Contract

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is a paradox: the EU imported considerably less salted cod by weight, yet paid substantially more for it. This points to a fundamental repricing of the product, driven by supply constraints, cost inflation, and possibly a shift toward higher-value product forms.

Import volumes fell by nearly a fifth despite sustained demand

EU imports of salted cod declined from 52,073 tonnes in 2015 to 41,859 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 19.6%. The trough was reached in 2020 at approximately 40,970 tonnes—likely reflecting the disruptive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on foodservice and logistics—before a modest recovery. The peak volume during the period was 52,852 tonnes, recorded in an earlier year. Despite this volume decline, the general trade overview shows that import demand remained structurally important to the EU market throughout.

Import unit prices more than doubled over the decade

The average import price rose from €4,870 per tonne in 2015 to €10,322 per tonne in 2025—an increase of 111.9%. This is the single most consequential shift in the market. The price trajectory was not monotonic; the minimum (€4,844/t) occurred early in the period, and the maximum (€10,322/t) was recorded in 2025, suggesting an accelerating trend toward the end of the decade.

The net result: a 70% surge in total import expenditure

The combination of declining volumes and surging unit prices pushed total import value from €254 million in 2015 to €432 million in 2025, an increase of 70.4%. The maximum import value over the period was also €432 million (2025), while the minimum was €230 million. The EU's trade deficit in salted cod widened correspondingly, from −€252 million to −€429 million, representing a 70% deterioration.

Source: EU Trade Dashboard

2. Supply Concentration and Declining EU Production: A Growing Dependency

The EU's reliance on a small number of extra-EU suppliers has remained a defining structural feature of the salted cod market. Over the period, net import reliance increased and domestic production volumes fell, reinforcing the bloc's vulnerability to upstream supply shocks.

Norway and Iceland dominate, with Canada emerging rapidly

Norway and Iceland together accounted for the vast majority of EU import value. In 2025, Norway supplied €198 million (up 61.1% from 2015) and Iceland supplied €165 million (up 81.8%). The partner data reveals a notable newcomer: Canada's export value to the EU surged from €0.6 million in 2015 to €16.4 million in 2025—a 2,472% increase—making it one of the top seven suppliers by value by the end of the period. Russia also showed strong growth (+102.1%), though from a lower base.

Source: Partners dashboard

Import concentration remained high and broadly stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value stood at 3,675 in 2015 and 3,598 in 2025, a marginal decline of 2.1%. These figures indicate a highly concentrated import market (an HHI above 2,500 is typically considered highly concentrated). The concentration analysis shows the HHI fluctuated within a narrow band (minimum 3,126, maximum 3,722), confirming persistent dependency on Norway and Iceland.

EU domestic production declined in volume but rose in value

EU production volumes fell from 97.4 million kg in 2015 to 69.3 million kg in 2025, a decline of 28.9%. Meanwhile, production value increased from €507 million to €591 million (+16.5%). This divergence implies a significant increase in the unit value of domestically produced salted cod, likely reflecting both the rising cost of raw material inputs and a possible shift toward higher-value processing.

Net import reliance rose from 48.3% to 53.3% over the period, peaking at 54.9%, as shown in the vulnerability indicators. The EU is becoming more, not less, dependent on imported salted cod at a time when raw material costs are rising sharply.

Specialisation is concentrated in northern EU member states

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that Sweden (RSCA: 0.87, RCA: 14.4) and the Netherlands (RSCA: 0.55, RCA: 3.4) are the most specialised EU member states in salted cod trade, consistent with the strong culinary traditions surrounding this product in Scandinavia and the Netherlands. Denmark also shows significant specialisation (RSCA: 0.44). By contrast, large EU economies such as France, Poland, and Belgium show negligible or no specialisation, indicating that salted cod consumption in these markets is served primarily through imports channelled via specialised hubs.

3. Export Reorientation: Angola Emerges as the EU's Premier Destination

While the EU's salted cod trade is overwhelmingly import-dominated, the export side tells a story of dramatic reorientation. Total export value grew by 151.6% and volumes doubled, but the geographic pattern shifted radically, with a handful of destinations—most notably Angola—coming to dominate.

Angola became the EU's top salted cod export market by a wide margin

In 2015, the EU exported just €165,000 worth of salted cod to Angola. By 2025, this had surged to €2.6 million, a 1,500% increase. Angola's share of total EU salted cod exports grew correspondingly, reflecting the strong cultural demand for bacalhau (salted cod) in Lusophone Africa and the deepening of trade links. The partner export data shows Angola absorbing an increasing share of a growing export base.

By contrast, several traditional export destinations contracted sharply:

Source: Partners dashboard

The collapse of exports to the United Kingdom (−89.9%) is noteworthy and may partly reflect the trade frictions introduced by Brexit, as the UK was historically a significant market for EU-processed salted cod.

Portugal consolidated its position as the EU's export hub

Among EU member-state exporters, Portugal's export value grew from €0.8 million to €2.9 million (+259%), making it by far the largest exporter by value. This is consistent with Portugal's central role in the global salted cod trade, processing imported raw material (primarily from Iceland and Norway) for re-export to Lusophone markets. Denmark, once a significant exporter (€253,000 in 2015), saw its exports collapse to just €1,435 by 2025 (−99.4%).

Export concentration increased dramatically

The HHI for export value surged from 1,931 in 2015 to 7,178 in 2025—an increase of 272%. This reflects the growing dominance of Angola as an export destination and the retreat from formerly diversified markets. While import concentration remained stable (as discussed above), export concentration shifted from moderate to very high, indicating that EU salted cod exports have become heavily dependent on a small number of buyers.

Volatility is high across key trading relationships

The volatility analysis reveals substantial variability in bilateral trade flows. On the import side, Russia (CV: 0.77), Canada (CV: 0.68), and Greenland (CV: 0.51) show the highest volatility among major suppliers, while Norway (CV: 0.14) and Iceland (CV: 0.09) are far more stable—consistent with their role as anchor suppliers with long-established trade relationships. On the export side, Angola (CV: 0.97) and Brazil (CV: 0.92) show high volatility, reflecting the episodic nature of export flows to developing markets. One notable supply shock was detected: EU exports to Brazil fell to zero in 2017 (−100% shift), representing a complete disruption of that trade flow.

Conclusion

The EU salted cod market (CN 030562) underwent substantial transformation between 2015 and 2025. The dominant story is one of rising costs and growing dependency: import prices more than doubled, pushing total import expenditure up by 70% even as physical volumes declined. The EU's net import reliance increased to over 53%, while domestic production volumes fell by nearly 29%—though production value rose, suggesting inflationary pressure throughout the value chain.

Supply remains heavily concentrated in Norway and Iceland, whose combined share of import value has grown in absolute terms. Canada has emerged as a significant new supplier, but this has not materially reduced concentration risk. On the export side, the market has been reoriented toward Angola and other Lusophone destinations, with Portugal cementing its role as the EU's primary re-export hub. The parallel collapse of exports to the UK and several other traditional markets has increased export concentration to very high levels.

Looking ahead, the key risks for the EU salted cod market include continued upward price pressure from constrained North Atlantic cod stocks, geopolitical disruption to secondary supply routes (notably Russia), and the growing vulnerability of export flows to a narrow set of destination markets. The structural decline in domestic production capacity further limits the EU's ability to buffer against external supply shocks.