Market evolution: Fish meal (CN 0309) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of Customs Code 0309, which covers flours, meals, and pellets of fish, crustaceans, molluscs, and other aquatic invertebrates fit for human consumption, for the European Union with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a transformative decade for the EU's position in this market, characterized by a fundamental reversal in trade flows, significant shifts in geographical concentration, and evolving price dynamics. These changes are largely driven by a dramatic expansion in EU production and a strategic pivot in export orientation. You can view the full product scope and overview on the trade dashboard.

From Import Dependence to Export Surplus: A Structural Reversal

The most significant development over the period is the EU's transformation from a major net importer to a substantial net exporter of fish meal products. This reversal is underpinned by a massive expansion in domestic production and a strategic reorientation of trade.

The collapse of net import reliance

At the start of the period, the EU displayed high import dependence, with net import reliance peaking at 81.5% in a given year. By 2025, this figure had collapsed to just 0.2%, indicating near-total self-sufficiency. This dramatic -99.8% change is the core narrative of the decade, reflecting a fundamental shift in the market's supply structure. The corresponding net import reliance metric illustrates this steep decline.

Explosive growth in EU production

This shift was fueled by an extraordinary surge in EU production. Between the first and last available periods, production quantity increased by 891.2%, rising from 66.1 million kg to 655.5 million kg. Production value grew by 473.4% over the same timeframe. This expansion provided the volume necessary to displace imports and build a robust export surplus. The growth in EU production volumes is a key driver of the observed trade dynamics.

Denmark as the engine of export growth

The export boom was not uniformly distributed across the EU. Denmark emerged as the overwhelmingly dominant exporter. Its exports surged by 168,596.6% in value, from €11,896 to €20,068,088. This single member state's growth accounts for the vast majority of the EU's transformation into a net exporter. In 2025, Denmark alone represented over 90% of the EU's total export value for CN 0309, as shown in the table of top EU reporters by export value.

EU Trade Balance Evolution (EUR)

Shifting Geographies of Trade and Specialization

The surge in exports and the relative stabilization of imports have been accompanied by a notable reshuffling of the EU's key trading partners and a rise in export concentration.

Norway and the UK become dominant export destinations

The geographic focus of EU exports shifted markedly. While the United States was the top export partner by value at the start of the period, its share plummeted (-95.5%). In its place, Norway became the primary destination, with EU exports to Norway soaring by 16,477.5% in value. The United Kingdom also emerged as a major market, growing by 1,226.7%. This indicates a growing intra-European and North Atlantic trade corridor for fish meal products. The volatility of these partnerships is detailed in the volatility analysis.

Import sources remain relatively stable

In contrast to exports, the EU's import sources remained more stable. Norway, New Zealand, and Greenland consistently were the top suppliers. Norway's shipments to the EU grew by 15.2% in value, while New Zealand's grew by 29.8%. One significant change was the complete disappearance of imports from Viet Nam, which fell from €291,901 to zero. This stability in import sources, coupled with the decline in overall import volumes, suggests the EU's production expansion has primarily displaced demand from other, less established suppliers.

Increased concentration in EU exports

The concentration of the EU's export market, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), increased significantly by 94.4%, indicating that export flows became more focused on fewer partners. This aligns with the dominance of Norway and the UK as destinations. Conversely, import concentration decreased slightly (-9.0%), showing a marginally more diversified import base. The evolution of export concentration reflects the centralization of new trade links.

Price Volatility and a Narrowing Product Portfolio

Price trends and product composition provide further nuance to the story, highlighting the impact of scale and market entry.

Export prices collapsed as volumes exploded

A defining feature of the period is the inverse relationship between EU export volume and price. As export quantities increased by 3,674.7%, the average unit price fell by 69.5%. This suggests that the EU's entry into the export market was volume-driven, likely competing on price with established global suppliers. The price drop was particularly severe in the fish meal subcategory (CN 030910), falling from €6,467/t in 2022 to €2,180/t in 2025. The full price trends can be explored in the segment breakdown.

The EU's export profile became dominated by fish meal

The product composition of trade also evolved. While the EU imports both fish meal (030910) and crustacean/mollusc meal (030990), its export boom was overwhelmingly driven by fish meal. By 2025, fish meal (030910) accounted for 94% of EU export value. In contrast, imports remained more balanced, with crustacean/mollusc meal (030990) representing 66% of import value in 2025. This specialization in exports highlights the EU's competitive advantage and focus within the broader CN 0309 category.

2025 Product Segment Snapshot (EUR & Tonnes)

Conclusion

The period 2015–2025 witnessed a profound structural shift in the EU's trade for fish meal products (CN 0309). Driven by an extraordinary surge in production, the EU transformed from a significant net importer (with 74-82% import reliance) into a robust net exporter by 2025. This reversal was powered almost single-handedly by Denmark, which became the bloc's export powerhouse. Consequently, the EU's trade geography was reshaped, with Norway and the United Kingdom becoming the primary export destinations, while import sources remained more stable but diminished in relative importance. The market entry was characterized by high-volume, lower-price exports, indicating a strategy focused on capturing market share. Overall, the data points to a deliberate and successful strategy of import substitution and export-led growth within the EU's fish meal sector.