Market evolution: Crude soybean oil (CN 15071090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of crude soya-bean oil (CN 15071090) for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a fundamental structural shift in the EU's position within this market. While the bloc remains a significant producer, its role in international trade has transformed dramatically. The period is characterized by a collapse in export volumes, a surge in imports from new suppliers, a rise in market concentration, and a corresponding erosion of the trade surplus. These trends reflect broader changes in global supply chains, regional geopolitics, and the EU's domestic market requirements.

I. The EU's Fundamental Shift from Net Exporter to Import-Dependent Market

The most significant evolution over the decade is the EU's transition from a large net exporter to a market with a negligible trade surplus, heavily reliant on imports to meet its consumption needs.

The Dramatic Erosion of the Trade Surplus

The EU's trade balance in crude soybean oil collapsed by 96.8%, falling from a substantial €476 million in 2015 to just €15 million in 2025. This was driven by two opposing trends: export volumes halved (-52.0%) while import volumes nearly doubled (+97.5%).

A Striking Reversal in Geographic Trade Flows

The collapse in exports was widespread across traditional destinations, while the import surge was driven by the rapid emergence of new suppliers.

• Export Decline: The EU's exports to major partners like Algeria (-53.4%), Egypt (-85.4%), and India (-100.0%) diminished drastically. This suggests a loss of competitiveness or a reallocation of EU product to other markets or domestic use.
• Import Surge: Ukraine emerged as the dominant import source, with its share of EU imports growing from €34 million in 2015 to €275 million in 2025, a 717% increase. This coincided with the near-total disappearance of imports from Argentina (-99.1%) and Russia (-100.0%).

II. Increased Market Concentration and Price Volatility Expose Vulnerability

The restructuring of trade flows has led to a more concentrated and potentially vulnerable market structure for the EU, as evidenced by supplier concentration indices and significant price shocks.

Rising Supplier Concentration on Both Sides of the Trade Ledger

Market concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), increased sharply for both imports and exports. This indicates that EU trade became more dependent on a smaller set of partners.

For imports, this reflects the rise of Ukraine as a quasi-monopolistic supplier. For exports, it shows the increasing dominance of the top destination, Morocco.

Detection of Major Supply Shocks and Price Instability

The period was not smooth; the data identifies significant volatility and supply shocks. The most pronounced shock was a price shock centered in 2021.

• Import Price Shock (Ukraine): A price shock with an abnormality score of 7.8 (a statistical measure of extremeness) hit EU imports from Ukraine in 2021, associated with a 67.2% price shift. Ukraine's share of EU import value that year was 50.8%.
• Export Price Shock (Algeria): A similar price shock affected EU exports to Algeria in 2021 (abnormality 7.1, shift +68.9%). This aligns with the global commodity price surge during the post-pandemic recovery and supply chain disruptions.

III. Domestic Production Growth Versus Declining Export Propensity

While the trade balance deteriorated, EU domestic production grew, suggesting a strategic reorientation towards serving internal demand rather than external markets.

Significant Expansion in Domestic Production

Despite the trade deficit trend, EU production of crude soybean oil grew substantially. Production volume increased by 60.0% (from ~1.5 million tonnes in 2015 to ~2.4 million tonnes in 2025), and production value rose by 40.2%. This indicates investment in crushing capacity and a focus on meeting intra-EU demand.

A Steady Retreat from International Markets

The growth in production did not translate into greater export strength. On the contrary, the EU's export propensity—the share of production destined for export—declined steadily from 61.5% in 2015 to 47.4% in 2025 (-22.9%). This confirms that a growing portion of EU production is being consumed domestically.

Geographic Specialisation Within the EU

Production and export specialization is not uniform across the EU. Analysis of revealed comparative advantage shows that in 2025, Portugal (RSCA 0.72) and Poland (RSCA 0.46) were the most specialized EU exporters of this product. Conversely, countries like Sweden (RSCA -1.00) and Denmark (RSCA -1.00) have virtually no export specialization, acting almost purely as importers and consumers.

Conclusion

The EU market for crude soybean oil (CN 15071090) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The defining trend is the bloc's shift from a major net exporter to a market with a minimal surplus, now heavily dependent on imports, particularly from Ukraine. This restructuring has led to increased supplier concentration and exposure to price shocks. Simultaneously, domestic production has expanded, but this growth has been oriented towards the internal market, as evidenced by falling export propensity. The key dynamic is thus one of strategic reorientation: increased production serves to offset declining import competitiveness, while the export sector contracts. The EU's net import reliance has remained stable around 50%, but the source of that supply has become far more concentrated and geopolitically focused, presenting both new economic partnerships and potential vulnerabilities for the bloc's food and energy security.