Market evolution: Cotton trousers (CN 620342) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in men's and boys' cotton trousers under CN code 620342, covering woven garments such as denim jeans, chinos, corduroy trousers, industrial workwear, bib-and-brace overalls, and shorts — excluding knitted or crocheted items, underwear, and swimwear. The heading bundles seven sub-categories, ranging from fashion denim (CN 62034231) to occupational overalls (CN 62034251).

Over the 2015–2025 decade the EU cotton-trouser market has undergone a profound structural transformation. Three interconnected dynamics dominate: (1) the near-collapse of domestic EU manufacturing, (2) a geographic reconfiguration of the import supply chain away from China and towards South Asia, and (3) a dramatic divergence between export and import unit prices that mirrors the EU's repositioning as a premium, low-volume exporter. These shifts were accelerated — but not initiated — by the COVID-19 pandemic, which triggered a sharp contraction in 2020 followed by an inflation-fuelled overshoot in 2022.

1. The Erosion of EU Manufacturing and the Deepening of Import Dependence

1.1 EU domestic production has contracted by over three-quarters in volume

The most dramatic structural change is the collapse of EU production. Output in pieces fell from 196.4 million in 2015 to 47.4 million in 2025 (−75.9 %), while production value more than halved from €2,374 million to €1,109 million (−53.3 %). The value trough was even deeper at €966 million, reached during the pandemic years.

That value fell less steeply than volume implies that the average price of EU-produced pieces nearly doubled — from roughly €12 to €23 per piece — suggesting that surviving output is concentrated in higher-value or niche segments (designer denim, premium tailoring, specialised workwear) while mass-market production has largely relocated offshore.

1.2 The structural trade deficit remains close to €4 billion

The EU has been a persistent net importer of cotton trousers throughout the period. The deficit narrowed by just 8.0 % overall, from −€4,187 million in 2015 to −€3,850 million in 2025, with significant oscillation around that trend:

Values derived from sub-product segment data; 2015 and 2025 verified against headline totals.

Import value declined by 2.9 % over the full period while import tonnage was essentially flat (+0.5 %, from 322,279 t to 323,767 t). By contrast, export value rose 12.6 % (from €1,396 M to €1,572 M) yet export tonnage fell 25.2 % (from 34,762 t to 25,995 t). This means all EU export growth was price-driven, not volume-driven — a theme explored in Section 3.

1.3 Vulnerability indicators have surged as production collapsed

The contraction of domestic manufacturing has dramatically increased the EU's structural dependence on foreign supply:

These ratios relate trade flows to the shrinking domestic production base. Because production collapsed while trade volumes held up or grew, each indicator exploded. In practical terms, the EU now imports the overwhelming majority of cotton trousers consumed domestically and re-exports a declining but increasingly premium share.

2. A Reconfigured Global Sourcing Map: South Asia Consolidates, China Retreats

2.1 Bangladesh and Pakistan have cemented their dominance as EU suppliers

Bangladesh and Pakistan have emerged as the uncontested primary suppliers of cotton trousers to the EU. Together they accounted for 54.8 % of import value in 2025, up from 41.8 % in 2015:

Bangladesh's import value peaked at €2,178 million in 2022 — the year of global price overshoot — before settling at €1,997 million. Bangladesh's supply is remarkably stable, with a coefficient of variation of just 0.10 across the period. Pakistan's growth has been the most dynamic among major suppliers: its import value rose by 52.1 % to a new period high of €978 million, with slightly higher volatility (CV 0.15). Both countries benefit from EU Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP) arrangements that provide preferential or duty-free access, low labour costs, and deep textile-manufacturing ecosystems.

2.2 China's share has halved in line with global supply-chain diversification

China was the EU's third-largest supplier in 2015, shipping €806 million of cotton trousers. By 2025, this had fallen to €414 million (−48.6 %), and China's share of EU imports halved from 14.4 % to 7.6 %. China also exhibits the highest supply volatility among the top seven partners (CV 0.34), indicating an erratic decline rather than a smooth transition — with a minimum import value of €350 million during the period.

The retreat from China is consistent with broader structural trends: rising Chinese wages, the reallocation of global apparel capacity to South Asia, EU-China geopolitical tensions, and the competitive advantage of South Asian and North African suppliers under EU preferential trade agreements.

2.3 Import concentration has increased, narrowing the effective supplier base

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of EU imports rose by 26.9 % in value terms (1,526 → 1,936) and by 40.5 % in volume terms (1,949 → 2,739). In volume, imports have moved from moderate to high concentration (HHI > 2,500), driven by Bangladesh's and Pakistan's growing dominance. This increasing concentration raises questions about supply-chain resilience, particularly given Pakistan's exposure to climate and macroeconomic shocks.

Among the longer-tail suppliers, Cambodia and Viet Nam have emerged as niche sources, though Cambodia's trade is highly volatile (CV 0.50). On the export side, the HHI also increased (by value: 988 → 1,366, +38.2 %; by volume: 922 → 1,034, +12.1 %) but remained below the moderate-concentration threshold, reflecting a more diversified destination portfolio.

2.4 Switzerland has replaced the UK as the EU's leading export market

The geographic profile of EU exports has been reshaped over the decade:

Switzerland's ascent is the most striking development: its share of EU exports more than doubled from 15.1 % to 32.1 %, making it by far the largest single destination with €505 million. Swiss demand for EU cotton trousers grew consistently, reaching a peak of €539 million during the period. The UK, formerly the top market, saw exports decline from €322 million to €191 million (−40.7 %), with the 2025 figure marking the period minimum — a trajectory consistent with the post-Brexit trade friction and the loss of frictionless single-market access. Exports to Russia also fell to their period minimum of €74 million (−37.9 %), reflecting EU sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Among EU member states, Germany consolidated its position as the largest exporter (from €322 M to €521 M, +61.7 %), while Poland emerged as the fastest-growing (from €27 M to €106 M, +297.7 %). Spain's exports, conversely, collapsed from €282 M to €88 M (−68.9 %). Specialisation data for 2025 confirms Denmark (RSCA 0.60) and Poland (RSCA 0.35) as the EU members with the strongest revealed comparative advantage in this product.

3. Diverging Price Trajectories, Pandemic Disruption, and Supply-Side Shocks

3.1 The COVID-19 pandemic caused a severe but short-lived contraction in 2020

The pandemic's imprint is clearly visible in 2020. Import value fell 23.4 % (from €5,412 M to €4,143 M) and tonnage dropped 24.6 % (from 338,051 t to 254,841 t), both reaching their period minima. Export value fell 21.4 % (from €1,821 M to €1,432 M). Because imports contracted more sharply than exports, the trade deficit temporarily narrowed to its best level of −€2,711 M.

Recovery was swift: by 2021, both flows had partially recovered. However, the EU's pre-pandemic export peak of €1,821 M (2019) was never regained, consistent with the continued erosion of domestic production capacity. Import volumes, by contrast, returned to their pre-pandemic range and even overshot in 2022. The production data shows a production-value trough of €966 M during the pandemic — less than half the 2015 starting level.

3.2 Import prices peaked in 2023, lagging the volume rebound by a year

EU unit prices followed distinctive trajectories across the decade:

Intermediate years derived from segment data; 2015 and 2025 cross-checked against headline figures.

Import prices per tonne fell from €17,322 in 2015 to a trough of €15,380 in 2018, reflecting intensifying price competition among lower-cost South Asian suppliers. Prices then rose to a peak of €19,046/t in 2023 — a 24 % increase from the trough — driven by post-COVID cotton-price inflation, elevated shipping costs, and manufacturing-wage inflation in supplier countries. By 2025, import prices had retreated to €16,746/t, actually below the 2015 starting level, suggesting that the inflationary impulse has fully unwound.

3.3 Export prices have surged, widening the EU's premium positioning

The most striking price dynamic is the escalation of EU export unit prices. Over the full period, export prices rose by 50.5 % per tonne (from €40,156 to €60,451) and by 58.3 % per piece (from €20.00 to €31.66). The export-to-import price ratio widened from 2.3× in 2015 to 3.6× in 2025, confirming the EU's increasing specialisation in premium-positioned garments.

The sharpest jump occurred between 2022 and 2023, when export prices per tonne leapt from €48,000 to €61,000 (+28 %). This coincides with a period of declining export volumes, suggesting a structural shift in the product mix — fewer but more expensive items — rather than simple inflation pass-through. As EU production contracts, the remaining export activity concentrates on higher-value, lower-volume segments such as designer denim, luxury tailoring, and technical workwear.

Across sub-products, denim trousers (CN 62034231) remain the largest segment, accounting for €2,517 M in imports and €805 M in exports in 2025. Industrial workwear trousers (CN 62034211) have been the fastest-growing import sub-segment (+66.4 % in value, from €159 M to €265 M), pointing to growing EU demand for professional cotton garments sourced from low-cost countries.

3.4 Isolated price shocks have punctuated key bilateral flows

The volatility and shock analysis detects three notable price shocks during the period:

The Swiss export shock (2017, abnormality 16.3) is the most extreme event detected, coinciding with the beginning of Switzerland's rapid ascent as the EU's top export market. Possible drivers include CHF appreciation, shifts in Swiss sourcing preferences, or changes in bilateral product mix. The Pakistan import shock (2022, abnormality 15.8) aligns with the global cotton-price spike and Pakistan's severe macroeconomic difficulties, including devastating floods and rupee devaluation.

Among import origins, Morocco and Cambodia exhibit the highest volatility (CVs of 0.36 and 0.50), while Bangladesh and India are the most stable suppliers (CVs of 0.10). On the export side, flows to the United States and the United Kingdom are the most volatile (CVs of 0.44 each), while trade with Switzerland and Türkiye is comparatively stable.

Conclusion

The EU cotton trouser market has undergone a structural transformation between 2015 and 2025 that goes well beyond normal cyclical fluctuation. Domestic production collapsed by over 75 % in volume, pushing net import reliance to 80 % and leaving a trade deficit of nearly €4 billion that barely narrowed over the decade.

On the supply side, the import map has been redrawn: Bangladesh and Pakistan now account for 55 % of EU import value, up from 42 %, while China's share halved to under 8 %. This realignment has increased import concentration, narrowing the effective supplier base. On the demand side, Switzerland has overtaken the UK as the top EU export destination, reflecting both the structural shift towards premium markets and the impact of Brexit and sanctions on traditional partners.

The pricing landscape has bifurcated: EU export unit prices have risen by over 50 % while import prices have ended the period below their 2015 starting level. This widening premium confirms the EU's repositioning as a niche, high-value exporter — but also underscores its dependence on low-cost imports for the mass market. The COVID-19 pandemic was a sharp but temporary shock; the 2022–2023 inflationary episode has largely unwound by 2025.

Looking forward, the combination of a shrinking domestic production base, increasing supplier concentration in climate-vulnerable South Asian economies, and continued reliance on imported mass-market garments points to structural supply-chain exposure that policymakers may wish to monitor.