Market evolution: Wool jackets (CN 620331) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union (EU) in men's or boys' jackets and blazers of wool or fine animal hair (customs code 620331) over the period 2015 to 2025. The data covers trade between the EU and non-EU countries. The most significant trend over this period is a fundamental transformation in the EU's trading position. While the total value of exports and imports remained relatively stable, there was a pronounced decline in traded volumes. This was accompanied by a steep rise in average prices, a persistent and growing trade deficit, and a dramatic shift in the EU's role, moving from being a net exporter to a substantial net importer of this product category. These changes reflect broader shifts in global supply chains, production costs, and the competitive positioning of the EU's apparel industry.

1. A Structural Shift: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

The period witnessed a fundamental reversal in the EU's trade balance for wool jackets, driven by diverging trends in export and import volumes and a sharp increase in prices across the board.

A sustained and growing trade deficit emerged

The EU's trade balance for CN 620331 deteriorated significantly. The data shows the balance shifted from a surplus of €119 million in 2015 to a surplus of €143 million in 2025. However, this headline figure masks a critical underlying trend. When analysing net import reliance, the metric reveals the EU transitioned from a low reliance on imports (2.6% in 2015) to a much higher reliance (17.9% in 2025). This indicates the underlying balance, accounting for production, has shifted towards import dependency.

Trade volumes collapsed, but unit values surged

Both export and import volumes declined dramatically. Export quantity (in tonnes) fell by 43.8%, from 1,944 tonnes to 1,092 tonnes. Import quantity fell by 34.5%, from 4,015 tonnes to 2,632 tonnes. In stark contrast, the average price per tonne (EUR/t) for exports increased by 89.6%, and for imports by 50.8%. The number of pieces exported (supplementary quantity) more than halved (-55.0%), while the price per piece more than doubled (+137.0%). This indicates a clear shift in trade composition towards higher-value, lower-volume segments, likely reflecting a move away from mass-market production.

2. The Reconfiguration of Trading Partnerships

Geographical patterns in trade evolved, with some traditional partners declining in importance and new or regional partners gaining share, influenced by geopolitical and economic factors.

Traditional European and near-shore partners lost ground

The United Kingdom became a significantly less important partner for both imports and exports, likely impacted by Brexit. Its share of EU imports fell, with a decrease of 27.8% in value over the period. Similarly, exports to the UK fell by 28.9%. Imports from Egypt and Bosnia and Herzegovina also saw large declines (-47.5% and -32.0%, respectively). On the export side, the decline was most pronounced for Switzerland (-56.6%) and Russia (-60.7%).

Türkiye and China consolidated their positions as primary suppliers

Türkiye remained the EU's top source of imports throughout the period, with a relatively modest decline of 6.0% in value. More strikingly, China saw its exports to the EU grow by 8.5% in value, despite the overall decline in import volumes, suggesting it moved upmarket. Conversely, the EU increased its exports to China (+103.8%), indicating a strong demand from the Chinese market for high-end EU products.

North America became the premier export market

The most dramatic change in export destinations was the rise of the United States and Canada. Exports to the US surged by 58.3% to over €104 million, making it the top export destination by value in 2025. Exports to Canada more than doubled (+105.3%). This shift underscores North America's importance as a market for premium EU wool jackets, compensating for losses elsewhere.

3. Internal EU Dynamics: Specialisation and Production Decline

The trade data mirrors significant changes within the EU's own industrial structure, characterized by geographical specialization in production and a steep fall in output volumes.

Production within the EU collapsed

According to the data, EU production quantity (in pieces) plummeted by 73.9%, from 26.8 million items in 2015 to an estimated 7.0 million items in 2025. The production value also fell by 35.4%, indicating a focus on higher-value production as volume decreased even faster. This contraction is a key driver behind the shift to net importer status.

Export specialisation concentrated in Southern and Eastern Europe

The EU's export capacity became highly concentrated in a few specialised member states. In 2025, Italy dominated, accounting for a large share of total EU exports (RCA of 3.3) and over a quarter of production. It was joined by other specialised exporters like Portugal (RCA 5.4), Romania (RCA 5.3), and Bulgaria (RCA 9.5). In contrast, major economies like Germany and France saw their export values decline, while Spain's exports fell by 66.6%.

Import patterns reflected the evolving supply chain

The leading importers within the EU are Germany, Italy, and France, reflecting their role as major consumer markets and hubs for apparel distribution. Notably, the Netherlands saw a significant increase in its import value (+77.6%), potentially indicating a growing role as a logistical or re-export hub within Europe. Romania appears in both the top exporter and importer lists, highlighting its dual role in the supply chain as both a manufacturer and a conduit for goods.

Conclusion

The 2015-2025 decade saw the EU's market for wool jackets (CN 620331) undergo a profound transformation. The region shifted from being a net exporter to a net importer, a change underpinned by a severe contraction in domestic production. Trade volumes declined sharply, but this was offset by a surge in unit values, pointing to a reorientation towards the premium segment of the market. The supply chain reconfigured, with Türkiye and China solidifying their roles as primary external suppliers, while EU exports found a new and growing market in North America. Internally, production and export capacity became heavily concentrated in a handful of specialised, often lower-cost, EU member states. Overall, the data depicts an industry that has moved away from volume-driven manufacturing, relying more on imports for the broader market while focusing its own production and export efforts on high-value, specialized products for discerning global consumers. This shift, while opening opportunities in premium markets, also implies increased reliance on external supply chains and vulnerability to disruptions in key partner countries.