Market evolution: Men's jeans (CN 62034231) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in men's and boys' cotton denim trousers and breeches (Customs code 62034231) over the 2015–2025 period. The product covers the classic "jeans" category — excluding knitted, industrial, or underwear items — and represents one of the most emblematic segments of the global garment trade.

Over this decade, the EU market for this product has undergone a profound structural transformation. While the headline import value has remained broadly stable (moving from approximately €2.50 billion to €2.52 billion, a modest +0.6%), these surface-level figures conceal deep shifts: an almost total withdrawal of domestic EU production, a dramatic reorientation of supply chains toward South Asia, and a shift in export dynamics toward higher-value, lower-volume trade. The trade deficit has narrowed only marginally, from –€1.83 billion to –€1.71 billion, while net import reliance has soared from 10.8% to 84.9%.

I. The Collapse of EU Production and the Rise of Import Dependency

EU domestic production has nearly ceased over the decade

The most striking structural change in this market is the near-total disappearance of EU-based manufacturing of men's cotton denim jeans. According to PRODCOM production data, production volumes fell from 66.7 million pieces in 2015 to just 6.8 million pieces in 2025 — a collapse of 89.8%. In value terms, EU production declined from €1.01 billion to €265 million (–73.8%).

This collapse reflects a longer-term trend of offshoring in the European textile and apparel sector, driven by lower labour costs in Asia and North Africa, and accelerated by factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic and successive supply chain disruptions.

Net import reliance has surged to nearly 85%

The consequence of declining domestic production is a dramatic increase in the EU's dependence on external suppliers. The net import reliance indicator — measuring imports as a share of apparent consumption (imports – exports + production) — rose from 10.8% in 2015 to 84.9% in 2025, an increase of 688.5%. This means that the EU now sources the vast majority of its cotton denim jeans from outside the bloc.

Similarly, trade intensity — the combined import and export share relative to production — climbed from 15.4% to 120.7%, confirming that the EU's role has shifted decisively from producer to consumer and re-exporter.

Import volumes rose while unit prices remained under pressure

Despite the near-stable import value, the underlying dynamics reveal important divergences between volume and pricing:

The fact that tonnes imported rose (+6.8%) while the number of individual items declined (–6.3%) suggests a shift toward heavier or thicker denim products, or changes in average garment weight over the period. Meanwhile, the per-piece price increase of 7.4% — combined with the per-tonne price decline of 5.8% — hints at evolving product mix and sourcing strategies rather than a simple inflation story.

II. A Reconfigured Supply Chain: South Asia Consolidates, China Retreats

Bangladesh and Pakistan have become the EU's dominant suppliers

The most consequential shift in the EU's sourcing landscape over the decade has been the consolidation of South Asian suppliers. Bangladesh grew from €641 million in import value (2015) to €846 million (2025), a rise of 31.9%, making it by far the largest single supplier. Pakistan followed a similar trajectory, increasing from €441 million to €549 million (+24.5%).

Together, these two countries now account for roughly 55% of total EU import value for this product — a remarkable level of concentration.

China's share has been halved

China, which was the fourth-largest supplier in 2015 with €258 million, saw its exports to the EU fall by 55.8% to just €114 million in 2025. This decline reflects multiple factors: rising production costs in China, the country's shift toward higher-value manufacturing, the impact of US-China trade tensions redirecting some trade flows, and a broader diversification strategy by European importers seeking to reduce single-country dependency.

The volatility data corroborates this structural decline: Chinese exports to the EU exhibited a coefficient of variation of 0.44, among the highest of the major suppliers, suggesting erratic and declining flows.

Egypt has emerged as a notable new supplier

Perhaps the most dramatic growth story among EU import partners is Egypt, which saw its export value to the EU surge by 282.4% — from just €34 million in 2015 to €131 million in 2025. Egypt's emergence likely reflects competitive labour costs, proximity to European markets, and preferential trade arrangements (such as the EU-Egypt Association Agreement). However, the high volatility (coefficient of variation: 0.45) suggests that this growth has been uneven, with significant year-to-year fluctuations.

Türkiye's role has declined while North Africa has bifurcated

Türkiye, long a key nearshore supplier for European fast-fashion and mid-market brands, saw its exports decline by 19.9% from €449 million to €360 million. This may reflect increased competition from lower-cost South Asian producers and the impact of macroeconomic instability in Türkiye, including currency depreciation.

Among North African suppliers, the picture is split: Tunisia (+12.1%) maintained its position as a reliable nearshore partner with remarkably low volatility (CV: 0.10), while Morocco (–38.5%) experienced a substantial contraction, possibly reflecting shifts in production orientation or competitive pressures.

Price shocks in 2022 hit the major South Asian suppliers

The shock detection analysis identifies significant price shocks centred on 2022 for the two largest suppliers:

These shocks align with the global commodity price surge of 2021–2022 (driven by post-pandemic demand recovery and the Russia-Ukraine conflict's impact on energy and cotton prices). Pakistan's exceptionally high abnormality score (102.5) indicates a particularly severe price spike, likely reflecting the country's own economic crisis and currency devaluation during that period.

III. A Reoriented Export Profile: Fewer Pieces, Higher Value, New Destinations

EU exports have shifted from volume to value

While the EU is predominantly an importer of men's cotton denim jeans, it also maintains a significant export business — one that has undergone a dramatic transformation in character. Export value rose from €676 million to €805 million (+19.2%), but export volume in tonnes fell by 22.7% (from 17,151 to 13,261 tonnes) and the number of items shipped dropped by 29.6% (from 30.8 million to 21.7 million pieces).

The export propensity — exports relative to production — exploded from 2.8% to 298.8%, meaning the EU now exports far more units than it domestically produces. This is consistent with a hub-and-spoke model where the EU imports garments (often for finishing, branding, or re-labelling) and then re-exports them, primarily to neighbouring European non-EU countries.

Switzerland has become the dominant export destination

The most striking shift in export destinations is the extraordinary growth of shipments to Switzerland, which surged by 264.8% — from €88 million to €321 million. Switzerland is now the largest single destination for EU exports of this product, accounting for nearly 40% of the total. A price shock in 2017 (+44.4% shift, abnormality 10.8) appears to have been a turning point in this relationship. The high unit value of exports to Switzerland suggests premium-branded products destined for a wealthy consumer market.

The United Kingdom's share has collapsed post-Brexit

Conversely, exports to the United Kingdom fell by 55.9% — from €189 million to just €83 million. The UK was the largest export market in 2015; by 2025 it has been relegated to a secondary position. This decline is strongly consistent with the impact of Brexit, which introduced customs formalities, regulatory divergence, and increased friction in UK-EU trade from January 2021. The high volatility for UK exports (coefficient of variation: 0.45) further confirms the disruptive impact of this transition.

Germany has emerged as the EU's leading exporting Member State

Within the EU, the geography of export activity has also shifted. Germany saw its exports more than double from €145 million to €312 million (+114.5%), overtaking Italy and Spain to become the largest exporting Member State. Poland (+230.6%) and France (+105.2%) also recorded dramatic growth, while Spain (–69.6%) and Belgium (–80.2%) experienced severe contractions in both import and export activity.

On the import side, Germany remains the largest importing Member State at €909 million in 2025, followed by the Netherlands (€419 million) and Spain (€303 million).

Conclusion

The EU market for men's cotton denim jeans (CN 62034231) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic EU production has nearly vanished, declining by almost 90% in volume terms, and the bloc has become overwhelmingly reliant on imports — with net import reliance jumping from under 11% to nearly 85%.

The supply chain has been substantially reconfigured. Bangladesh and Pakistan have consolidated their positions as the dominant suppliers, collectively representing over half of import value. China, once a major player, has seen its share halved. Egypt has emerged as a fast-growing new source, while Türkiye and Morocco have declined. A significant price shock in 2022, linked to global commodity inflation and macroeconomic instability in key producing countries, tested the resilience of this concentrated supply base.

On the export side, the EU has pivoted toward a higher-value, lower-volume model, with shipments increasingly directed to neighbouring high-income markets like Switzerland and Norway, while the UK's share has collapsed in the wake of Brexit. Germany has become the EU's leading hub for both importing and re-exporting these products.

Looking ahead, the sector faces a dual challenge: managing supply chain concentration risk in a context of geopolitical uncertainty, and navigating the growing regulatory environment around sustainability, deforestation-free supply chains, and due diligence obligations that will increasingly shape sourcing decisions for this iconic product category.